On Oct 20, 12:24*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 20, 11:55*am, Len Wood wrote:





On Oct 20, 11:08*am, Graham Easterling
wrote:

On 20 Oct, 10:21, Len Wood wrote:

On Oct 20, 9:08*am, Graham Easterling
wrote:

Windy last night, with gusts widely to 40mph in the far SW. Also mild,
with a minimum of11.8C.

14.2mm of rain overnight, but it cleared eastwards around 08:00 with
the cloud already starting to break. The overnight force 5-6 SE has
now become a Force 2-3 S just behind the front.

I see there's a heavy rain weather warning for Cornwall & the Isles of
Scilly from 10:00-15:00. It's been & gone here, and will have cleared
most of Cornwall by 10:00. *Heavy rain here was 04:00-07:00.

The warning was issued at 08:00 - shouldn't it be issue before rather
than after the event?

Graham
Penzance

Serious heavy rain here in Plymouth region at the moment 10.15,
Graham.http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/
Was it a regional forecast?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Yes I know, the thing is the warning is fine for Devon, but for
Cornwall was affected from the early hours until 07:00 in the far west
to 10:30 (in the far east). So giving a warning from 10:00 was
incorrect. I've just returned from Mousehole, in sunshine. to speak to
my visitors who had just changed their plans for a walk, due to the
forecast. They've now set off in sunshine.

As MCC says, there was flooding in west Cornwall - well before the
period covered by the warning. In Penzance, along the prom due to the
sea overtopping (spring tide, low pressure, rough sea). I didn't see
any warning for coastal flooding.

Graham
Penzance- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

It does seem very silly being as the warning was issued at 0800.
I never understand why they don't look at the radar rainfall to give a
better indication of timing for frontal rain.
We are after all talking about nowcasting in such circumstances.

Len

Len- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Nope that beats me too Len. I don't understand why the site directs
one to the Environment Agency and the Highways agency but not to the
rainfall radar, when the information you really need is when is it
going to rain and how heavy is it likely to be? The only place to find
that information is on the rainfall radar (OK, should be called the
precipitation radar, but that's a different matter!). It's an obvious
link and would be educational as well as informative as a nowcast.
Next freebie on the site should be nowcast radar, of course, as the
present radar is at least half-an-hour out of date. Easily done, not
expensive for the MetO and there would be a real opportunity for
involving the public more in the difficulties, but also the excitement
of forecasting.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

The issue time for the warning of 0800 was possibly change of shift
time?
Surely there was a weather-aware forecaster awake at 0500 or 0600?

Len

On Oct 20, 12:50*pm, Len Wood wrote:
On Oct 20, 12:24*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Oct 20, 11:55*am, Len Wood wrote:

On Oct 20, 11:08*am, Graham Easterling
wrote:

On 20 Oct, 10:21, Len Wood wrote:

On Oct 20, 9:08*am, Graham Easterling
wrote:

Windy last night, with gusts widely to 40mph in the far SW. Also mild,
with a minimum of11.8C.

14.2mm of rain overnight, but it cleared eastwards around 08:00 with
the cloud already starting to break. The overnight force 5-6 SE has
now become a Force 2-3 S just behind the front.

I see there's a heavy rain weather warning for Cornwall & the Isles of
Scilly from 10:00-15:00. It's been & gone here, and will have cleared
most of Cornwall by 10:00. *Heavy rain here was 04:00-07:00.

The warning was issued at 08:00 - shouldn't it be issue before rather
than after the event?

Graham
Penzance

Serious heavy rain here in Plymouth region at the moment 10.15,
Graham.http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/
Was it a regional forecast?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Yes I know, the thing is the warning is fine for Devon, but for
Cornwall was affected from the early hours until 07:00 in the far west
to 10:30 (in the far east). So giving a warning from 10:00 was
incorrect. I've just returned from Mousehole, in sunshine. to speak to
my visitors who had just changed their plans for a walk, due to the
forecast. They've now set off in sunshine.

As MCC says, there was flooding in west Cornwall - well before the
period covered by the warning. In Penzance, along the prom due to the
sea overtopping (spring tide, low pressure, rough sea). I didn't see
any warning for coastal flooding.

Graham
Penzance- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

It does seem very silly being as the warning was issued at 0800.
I never understand why they don't look at the radar rainfall to give a
better indication of timing for frontal rain.
We are after all talking about nowcasting in such circumstances.

Len

Len- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Nope that beats me too Len. I don't understand why the site directs
one to the Environment Agency and the Highways agency but not to the
rainfall radar, when the information you really need is when is it
going to rain and how heavy is it likely to be? The only place to find
that information is on the rainfall radar (OK, should be called the
precipitation radar, but that's a different matter!). It's an obvious
link and would be educational as well as informative as a nowcast.
Next freebie on the site should be nowcast radar, of course, as the
present radar is at least half-an-hour out of date. Easily done, not
expensive for the MetO and there would be a real opportunity for
involving the public more in the difficulties, but also the excitement
of forecasting.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

The issue time for the warning of 0800 was possibly change of shift
time?
Surely there was a weather-aware forecaster awake at 0500 or 0600?

Len- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

All shifted east from here now. It's been a pretty foul day with some
blustery winds and 8mm of rain in Teignmouth. It's not possible to
judge whether the whole weather warning was justified, as it covered a
very wide area and someone within that area may have got some severe,
or extreme weather. It certainly wasn't justified for this particular
location, though the weather did get interesting for a short while.

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
- Show quoted text -

All shifted east from here now. It's been a pretty foul day with some
blustery winds and 8mm of rain in Teignmouth. It's not possible to
judge whether the whole weather warning was justified, as it covered a
very wide area and someone within that area may have got some severe,
or extreme weather. It certainly wasn't justified for this particular
location, though the weather did get interesting for a short while.

Nothing special up here in Haytor. Only 13.0 mm total and briefly just 45
mm/h rate. A tad breezy at times but nothing for Dartmoor. I doubt the
locals would have noticed today's event very much. :-)

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
--

On Oct 20, 6:18*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

- Show quoted text -
All shifted east from here now. It's been a pretty foul day with some
blustery winds and 8mm of rain in Teignmouth. It's not possible to
judge whether the whole weather warning was justified, as it covered a
very wide area and someone within that area may have got some severe,
or extreme weather. It certainly wasn't justified for this particular
location, though the weather did get interesting for a short while.

Nothing special up here in Haytor. Only 13.0 mm total and briefly just 45
mm/h rate. A tad breezy at times but nothing for Dartmoor. I doubt the
locals would have noticed today's event very much. :-)

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
--

How come your rain today total on your webpage shows 9.1 mm Will? Do
you measure manually as well?

Len

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

Nothing special up here in Haytor. Only 13.0 mm total and briefly just 45
mm/h rate. A tad breezy at times but nothing for Dartmoor. I doubt the
locals would have noticed today's event very much. :-)

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)

IIRC, there was 10-20mm fairly widely reported over SW Britain with Chivenor
recording over 30mm in 2 hours during the morning.

Jon.

"Len Wood" wrote in message
...
On Oct 20, 6:18 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

- Show quoted text -
All shifted east from here now. It's been a pretty foul day with some
blustery winds and 8mm of rain in Teignmouth. It's not possible to
judge whether the whole weather warning was justified, as it covered a
very wide area and someone within that area may have got some severe,
or extreme weather. It certainly wasn't justified for this particular
location, though the weather did get interesting for a short while.

Nothing special up here in Haytor. Only 13.0 mm total and briefly just 45
mm/h rate. A tad breezy at times but nothing for Dartmoor. I doubt the
locals would have noticed today's event very much. :-)

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
--

How come your rain today total on your webpage shows 9.1 mm Will? Do
you measure manually as well?

Len
======

Oh yes I do it properly with a 5" gauge. AWS is fine for rates but you need
a check gauge for accurate totals, especially at altitude in exposed
conditions where the elevated AWS can seriously under-read.

Will
--

On Oct 20, 11:14*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Len Wood" wrote in message

...
On Oct 20, 6:18 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:





"Dawlish" wrote in message

....

- Show quoted text -
All shifted east from here now. It's been a pretty foul day with some
blustery winds and 8mm of rain in Teignmouth. It's not possible to
judge whether the whole weather warning was justified, as it covered a
very wide area and someone within that area may have got some severe,
or extreme weather. It certainly wasn't justified for this particular
location, though the weather did get interesting for a short while.

Nothing special up here in Haytor. Only 13.0 mm total and briefly just 45
mm/h rate. A tad breezy at times but nothing for Dartmoor. I doubt the
locals would have noticed today's event very much. :-)

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
--

How come your rain today total on your webpage shows 9.1 mm Will? Do
you measure manually as well?

Len
======

Oh yes I do it properly with a 5" gauge. AWS is fine for rates but you need
a check gauge for accurate totals, especially at altitude in exposed
conditions where the elevated AWS can seriously under-read.

Will
--- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Thought so Will.

Perhaps we can come to some conclusion about this thread which started
with Graham querying the UKMO severe weather warning . Issued at 0800,
the timing was incorrect, at least for west Cornwall. A warning was
given for 25mm or more. This occurred in places (see Colin Youngs
posting) with Chivenor getting 37 mm. Most of us on the south coast
did not get anyway near this. 8.2 mm here in Wembury (82 m asl) and
not much more at Postbridge 14.2 mm (369 asl) on Dartmoor. Clearly
more deep convection was embedded further north as the front passed.
Ascent over high ground seemed unimportant. All in all it was severe
weather, but not for many. The usual story in fact. Impossible to
forecast to better than 100 km. We are told that numerical models can
do this, but no one is prepared to stick their neck out yet.

Len
Wembury, SW Devon

On Oct 20, 11:46*pm, Len Wood wrote:
On Oct 20, 11:14*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:





"Len Wood" wrote in message

....
On Oct 20, 6:18 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message

....

- Show quoted text -
All shifted east from here now. It's been a pretty foul day with some
blustery winds and 8mm of rain in Teignmouth. It's not possible to
judge whether the whole weather warning was justified, as it covered a
very wide area and someone within that area may have got some severe,
or extreme weather. It certainly wasn't justified for this particular
location, though the weather did get interesting for a short while.

Nothing special up here in Haytor. Only 13.0 mm total and briefly just 45
mm/h rate. A tad breezy at times but nothing for Dartmoor. I doubt the
locals would have noticed today's event very much. :-)

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
--

How come your rain today total on your webpage shows 9.1 mm Will? Do
you measure manually as well?

Len
======

Oh yes I do it properly with a 5" gauge. AWS is fine for rates but you need
a check gauge for accurate totals, especially at altitude in exposed
conditions where the elevated AWS can seriously under-read.

Will
--- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Thought so Will.

Perhaps we can come to some conclusion about this thread which started
with Graham querying the UKMO severe weather warning . Issued at 0800,
the timing was incorrect, at least for west Cornwall. A warning was
given for 25mm or more. This occurred in places (see Colin Youngs
posting) with Chivenor getting 37 mm. Most of us on the south coast
did not get anyway near this. 8.2 mm here in Wembury (82 m asl) and
not much more at Postbridge 14.2 mm (369 asl) on Dartmoor. Clearly
more deep convection was embedded further north as the front passed.
Ascent over high ground seemed unimportant. All in all it was severe
weather, but not for many. The usual story in fact. Impossible to
forecast to better than 100 km. We are told that numerical models can
do this, but no one is prepared to stick their neck out yet.

Len
Wembury, SW Devon- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Just about my feelings too. A good summary. Some areas received 25mm
within the large forecast area, so the warning was technically
correct. Is 25-40mm of rainfall severe? That's a different matter and
the rainfall certainly wasn't "extreme" for anyone in the SW. In the
end, there was no severe weather for the majority of people that live
in those two forecast areas of Cornwall and Devon. It was a pretty
foul, fairly wet and fairly windy day, for most and it was very wet
for a short time, for most, but no more.

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Oct 20, 11:46 pm, Len Wood wrote:
On Oct 20, 11:14 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:





"Len Wood" wrote in message

...
On Oct 20, 6:18 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

- Show quoted text -
All shifted east from here now. It's been a pretty foul day with some
blustery winds and 8mm of rain in Teignmouth. It's not possible to
judge whether the whole weather warning was justified, as it covered
a
very wide area and someone within that area may have got some severe,
or extreme weather. It certainly wasn't justified for this particular
location, though the weather did get interesting for a short while.

Nothing special up here in Haytor. Only 13.0 mm total and briefly just
45
mm/h rate. A tad breezy at times but nothing for Dartmoor. I doubt the
locals would have noticed today's event very much. :-)

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
--

How come your rain today total on your webpage shows 9.1 mm Will? Do
you measure manually as well?

Len
======

Oh yes I do it properly with a 5" gauge. AWS is fine for rates but you
need
a check gauge for accurate totals, especially at altitude in exposed
conditions where the elevated AWS can seriously under-read.

Will
--- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Thought so Will.

Perhaps we can come to some conclusion about this thread which started
with Graham querying the UKMO severe weather warning . Issued at 0800,
the timing was incorrect, at least for west Cornwall. A warning was
given for 25mm or more. This occurred in places (see Colin Youngs
posting) with Chivenor getting 37 mm. Most of us on the south coast
did not get anyway near this. 8.2 mm here in Wembury (82 m asl) and
not much more at Postbridge 14.2 mm (369 asl) on Dartmoor. Clearly
more deep convection was embedded further north as the front passed.
Ascent over high ground seemed unimportant. All in all it was severe
weather, but not for many. The usual story in fact. Impossible to
forecast to better than 100 km. We are told that numerical models can
do this, but no one is prepared to stick their neck out yet.

Len
Wembury, SW Devon- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Just about my feelings too. A good summary. Some areas received 25mm
within the large forecast area, so the warning was technically
correct. Is 25-40mm of rainfall severe? That's a different matter and
the rainfall certainly wasn't "extreme" for anyone in the SW. In the
end, there was no severe weather for the majority of people that live
in those two forecast areas of Cornwall and Devon. It was a pretty
foul, fairly wet and fairly windy day, for most and it was very wet
for a short time, for most, but no more.

====

As I said folk on Dartmoor would laugh if you called it severe or even wet.
We get heavier drizzle sometimes :-)
On Dartmoor I would say 40mm rain in 12 hours is a heavy fall and over 60mm
would be severe.
For snow 15cm heavy, 5-15cm moderate and 5 cm light.
The warnings aren't really for Dartmoor though.

Will
--