.... temperature local area (West Moors/East Dorset) currently (24/0815Z)
16degC, roughly 3C above the end of October average *maximum*
temperature. Raining steadily.

Martin.



--
Martin Rowley
W: booty.org.uk
E:

On Oct 24, 9:16*am, Martin Rowley
wrote:
... temperature local area (West Moors/East Dorset) currently (24/0815Z)
16degC, roughly 3C above the end of October average *maximum*
temperature. Raining steadily.

Martin.

--
Martin Rowley
W: booty.org.uk
E:

Yes, this coming week is going to feel a bit strange, particularly on
the (in the majority I would guess) dry days. Sunset times typical of
late January, yet daytime temperatures like May. Will remind me rather
of the trip I did to California at Christmas some years ago I
suspect...

Nick

Nick wrote:


Yes, this coming week is going to feel a bit strange, particularly on
the (in the majority I would guess) dry days. Sunset times typical of
late January, yet daytime temperatures like May. Will remind me rather
of the trip I did to California at Christmas some years ago I
suspect...

Nick

.... the GFES output certainly shows the ensemble members clustering
(tightly) around 5C above the long-term average at 850T. This for our
location:-

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MS_-251_ens.png

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley

I certainly understand the red line on that graph Martin,what as to the rest
of the stuff ...bloody spaghetti !.

RonB


"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...
Nick wrote:


Yes, this coming week is going to feel a bit strange, particularly on
the (in the majority I would guess) dry days. Sunset times typical of
late January, yet daytime temperatures like May. Will remind me rather
of the trip I did to California at Christmas some years ago I
suspect...

Nick

... the GFES output certainly shows the ensemble members clustering
(tightly) around 5C above the long-term average at 850T. This for our
location:-

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MS_-251_ens.png

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley

... the GFES output certainly shows the ensemble members clustering
(tightly) around 5C above the long-term average at 850T. This for our
location:-

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MS_-251_ens.png

Martin.

ronaldbutton wrote:
I certainly understand the red line on that graph Martin,what as to the rest
of the stuff ...bloody spaghetti !.

.... indeed, though these aren't 'spaghetti', they're different animals!

.... essentially, each of the *thin* lines is an individual output based
on slightly perturbed initial conditions from the Control ('Kontroll')
run, which it also shown - the control is a lower resolution version of
the operational or main run. The deterministic/operational run (thick
green line / 'Hauptlauf') is also shown. If they *all* cluster tightly
together, as they do for at least the first 5 or 6 days, then you can
have a high confidence that the output (in this case the 850 hPa
temperature) is going to behave as shown. The lines at the bottom are
for precipitation BTW.

These output are amongst the first I look at each day - until you know
whether the model atmosphere is potentially 'focused' & knows what it is
doing (close spacing of plumes) or 'noisy' (wide/widening spacing), then
it's not much good slavishly watching the operational stuff - it could
be 'pants' :-)

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley

Martin Rowley wrote:
... temperature local area (West Moors/East Dorset) currently (24/0815Z)
16degC, roughly 3C above the end of October average *maximum*
temperature. Raining steadily.

... (1100Z): now up to 16.6°C, and although I don't normally use my
temperatures here (due to poor exposure), given the heavy overcast,
thick rain/drizzle and blustery wind, that value is probably OK. Was
sweating after a walk back & forth to the village - not that I'm out of
condition, just the response to the high dew point/wet bulb T.

Martin.



--
Martin Rowley
W: booty.org.uk
E: