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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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![]() "Malcolm" wrote in message ... In article , Dawlish writes On Oct 28, 6:26 pm, "Will Hand" wrote: Great minds think alike. Simultaneously I started a similar thread! Yes it could be further north OTOH it could slow even more and deepen further south. Ensembles will be key to arriving at a most likely position. Will -- "Dawlish" wrote in message ... 12z gfs has Sunday's depression on a very interesting track. I feel that the low centre wil end up further North than currently forecast, but there's some gales and heavy rain likely to be wrapped around that low and it could prove to be a damaging storm. Lots of leaves still left on trees and lots of blocked drains too. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.png Further afield, it looks like Autumn will hit the Med next week. Perf Anyone who has escaped for half-term, to the western Med, at least, has had some super October weather, but anyone who has tried to save some money and tried to escape the kids in the resorts, or taken the kids out of school to benefit from cheaper deals, might wish they chosen this week instead!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1802.png- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Not quite the same track this morning and the 00z gfs takes the depression across Northern Ireland and then across Scotland, but still with some strong winds and heavy rain,. Definitely one to watch ATM. During today, http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ have downgraded it and pushed it further north. This morning, Islay (where I live) was set for force 8-9 for the much of the daytime. Now, it's a mere force 7, and even further north into the Outer Hebrides it isn't given more than force 8. Northern Ireland hasn't anywhere above force 6. -- Malcolm It's a tricky one for sure. We need to wait until it is within time range of high resolution NWP models. 06Z run tomorrow (friday) should start to see it better handled. Having said that the wave starts near the Azores a relatively data rich region, however, models historically have trouble with waves coming from the SW. My option is that it will end up in the Irish Sea and then slide across northern England but confidence is only 30%. The best charts to keep an eye on it will be the UKmet FAX charts as these will represent the best estimate from the human forecaster team at Exeter. Will -- |
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