"Malcolm" wrote in message
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In article
,
Dawlish writes
On Oct 28, 6:26 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
Great minds think alike. Simultaneously I started a similar thread!
Yes it could be further north OTOH it could slow even more and deepen
further south. Ensembles will be key to arriving at a most likely
position.

Will
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"Dawlish" wrote in message

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12z gfs has Sunday's depression on a very interesting track. I feel
that the low centre wil end up further North than currently forecast,
but there's some gales and heavy rain likely to be wrapped around that
low and it could prove to be a damaging storm. Lots of leaves still
left on trees and lots of blocked drains too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.png

Further afield, it looks like Autumn will hit the Med next week. Perf
Anyone who has escaped for half-term, to the western Med, at least,
has had some super October weather, but anyone who has tried to save
some money and tried to escape the kids in the resorts, or taken the
kids out of school to benefit from cheaper deals, might wish they
chosen this week instead!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1802.png- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Not quite the same track this morning and the 00z gfs takes the
depression across Northern Ireland and then across Scotland, but still
with some strong winds and heavy rain,. Definitely one to watch ATM.

During today, http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ have downgraded it and pushed it
further north. This morning, Islay (where I live) was set for force 8-9
for the much of the daytime. Now, it's a mere force 7, and even further
north into the Outer Hebrides it isn't given more than force 8. Northern
Ireland hasn't anywhere above force 6.

--
Malcolm

It's a tricky one for sure. We need to wait until it is within time range of
high resolution NWP models.
06Z run tomorrow (friday) should start to see it better handled. Having said
that the wave starts near the Azores a relatively data rich region, however,
models historically have trouble with waves coming from the SW. My option is
that it will end up in the Irish Sea and then slide across northern England
but confidence is only 30%. The best charts to keep an eye on it will be the
UKmet FAX charts as these will represent the best estimate from the human
forecaster team at Exeter.

Will
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