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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#11
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On 30 Oct, 20:59, "Will Hand" wrote:
OMG have you seen the 18Z run Jon? OMG?! That's enough teenage girl lingo from you, Hand. That aside, the link is a veritable boon! Odd wind units - km/h? For the given gradient that seems odd... 992 - 968mb in 12 hours towards the end of the run. Hours of fun - I knew opening my big gob thinking it didn't look like too much (although doesn't the NAE have a record of overcooking?) Cheers, Richard |
#12
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![]() "Richard Dixon" wrote in message ... On 30 Oct, 20:59, "Will Hand" wrote: OMG have you seen the 18Z run Jon? OMG?! That's enough teenage girl lingo from you, Hand. That aside, the link is a veritable boon! Odd wind units - km/h? For the given gradient that seems odd... 992 - 968mb in 12 hours towards the end of the run. Hours of fun - I knew opening my big gob thinking it didn't look like too much (although doesn't the NAE have a record of overcooking?) Cheers, Richard No not really Richard. Rainfall can be overdone at times as latent heat feedbacks can occasionally get out of control but generally it is a very good model and needs to be taken seriously. Wet and windy sums up tomorrow I'd say - nothing unusual for the time of year, but exciting given the long period of quiet soft weather we have had recently. However, .... lurking in the back of, and haunting every forecaster's mind, is the spectre of 15th October 1987 :-) Will -- |
#13
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On 31 Oct, 09:55, "Will Hand" wrote:
No not really Richard. Rainfall can be overdone at times as latent heat feedbacks can occasionally get out of control but generally it is a very good model and needs to be taken seriously. That's good - I thought there were teething troubles with over- intensification (a la GFS?!) Wet and windy sums up tomorrow I'd say - nothing unusual for the time of year, but exciting given the long period of quiet soft weather we have had recently. However, .... lurking in the back of, and haunting every forecaster's mind, is the spectre of 15th October 1987 :-) This one's track reminds me more of 30 Oct 2000, maybe. For me, the spectre of Oct 87 will continue to lurk (French storms 1999 being the prime example) with so few observations over the Atlantic. Richard |
#14
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On Oct 31, 9:55*am, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Richard Dixon" wrote in message ... On 30 Oct, 20:59, "Will Hand" wrote: OMG have you seen the 18Z run Jon? OMG?! That's enough teenage girl lingo from you, Hand. That aside, the link is a veritable boon! Odd wind units - km/h? For the given gradient that seems odd... 992 - 968mb in 12 hours towards the end of the run. Hours of fun - I knew opening my big gob thinking it didn't look like too much (although doesn't the NAE have a record of overcooking?) Cheers, Richard No not really Richard. Rainfall can be overdone at times as latent heat feedbacks can occasionally get out of control but generally it is a very good model and needs to be taken seriously. Wet and windy sums up tomorrow I'd say - nothing unusual for the time of year, but exciting given the long period of quiet soft weather we have had recently. However, .... lurking in the back of, and haunting every forecaster's mind, is the spectre of 15th October 1987 :-) Will -- That weatheronline expert charts website is excellent. Nice to be able to compare models so easily. I often use the charts of grib data available from http://www.grib.us You can download free software from here to get the high res gfs data from anywhere in the world. - Global GFS Data - updated every 6 hours (runtime + 5 hours) - 3 hour time-steps - native resolution of 0.5° x 0.5° - 7 day forecasts It's very user friendly. I like the meteograms delivered for any location with a click of the mouse. Regarding the Sunday storm, GFS output is only giving 30 knots, gusts of course may be a bit scary. Conditions at sea will be nasty, especially the southern N Sea. Rainfall rates are forecast to be only between 3 and 4 mm/hr. The modelling of these is the trickiest part as we all know. Len Wembury, SW Devon |
#15
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On 30 Oct, 20:59, "Will Hand" wrote:
I also like the ability to look back over previous runs as the software cleverly matches VT with lead time. Time-lagged ensembles anyone? Massive difference between 06Z run and 12Z run. I feel like my life has been transformed - for the better :-) I've just noticed that changing the run base time keeps the same verification time: magnificent for comparing inter-run variability. Take the 12z GMT verification for the most recent runs: 06Z Sat: 980mb, 00Z Sat: 989mb, 18Z Fri: 981mb, 12Z Fri: 985mb Interesting the location was on the Yorkshire coast up until the 06Z run this morning when it's now over the Lake District now - and now slightly more intense gradients, but as Jon said earlier, you can't beat 1mb intervals for getting the wind up, pardon the pun. Richard |
#16
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On Oct 30, 10:17*am, Richard Dixon wrote:
Dear All, http://meteocentre.com/tracking/EUROPE/index.html Another useful back from the Meteocentre guys, I quite like the potential in: http://meteocentre.com/tracking/EURO...-168_l3_00.gif Richard Richard - thank you. This is quite fun and the gathering of the UK pressure maps could actually make me change from wetterzentrale as my first point of contact! Much appreciated. |
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