On 30 Oct, 20:59, "Will Hand" wrote:

OMG have you seen the 18Z run Jon?

OMG?! That's enough teenage girl lingo from you, Hand.

That aside, the link is a veritable boon! Odd wind units - km/h? For
the given gradient that seems odd...

992 - 968mb in 12 hours towards the end of the run. Hours of fun - I
knew opening my big gob thinking it didn't look like too much
(although doesn't the NAE have a record of overcooking?)

Cheers,
Richard

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On 30 Oct, 20:59, "Will Hand" wrote:

OMG have you seen the 18Z run Jon?

OMG?! That's enough teenage girl lingo from you, Hand.

That aside, the link is a veritable boon! Odd wind units - km/h? For
the given gradient that seems odd...

992 - 968mb in 12 hours towards the end of the run. Hours of fun - I
knew opening my big gob thinking it didn't look like too much
(although doesn't the NAE have a record of overcooking?)

Cheers,
Richard

No not really Richard. Rainfall can be overdone at times as latent heat
feedbacks can occasionally get out of control but generally it is a very
good model and needs to be taken seriously. Wet and windy sums up tomorrow
I'd say - nothing unusual for the time of year, but exciting given the long
period of quiet soft weather we have had recently. However, .... lurking in
the back of, and haunting every forecaster's mind, is the spectre of 15th
October 1987 :-)

Will
--

On 31 Oct, 09:55, "Will Hand" wrote:

No not really Richard. Rainfall can be overdone at times as latent heat
feedbacks can occasionally get out of control but generally it is a very
good model and needs to be taken seriously.

That's good - I thought there were teething troubles with over-
intensification (a la GFS?!)

Wet and windy sums up tomorrow
I'd say - nothing unusual for the time of year, but exciting given the long
period of quiet soft weather we have had recently. However, .... lurking in
the back of, and haunting every forecaster's mind, is the spectre of 15th
October 1987 :-)

This one's track reminds me more of 30 Oct 2000, maybe. For me, the
spectre of Oct 87 will continue to lurk (French storms 1999 being the
prime example) with so few observations over the Atlantic.

Richard

On Oct 31, 9:55*am, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Richard Dixon" wrote in message

...

On 30 Oct, 20:59, "Will Hand" wrote:

OMG have you seen the 18Z run Jon?

OMG?! That's enough teenage girl lingo from you, Hand.

That aside, the link is a veritable boon! Odd wind units - km/h? For
the given gradient that seems odd...

992 - 968mb in 12 hours towards the end of the run. Hours of fun - I
knew opening my big gob thinking it didn't look like too much
(although doesn't the NAE have a record of overcooking?)

Cheers,
Richard

No not really Richard. Rainfall can be overdone at times as latent heat
feedbacks can occasionally get out of control but generally it is a very
good model and needs to be taken seriously. Wet and windy sums up tomorrow
I'd say - nothing unusual for the time of year, but exciting given the long
period of quiet soft weather we have had recently. However, .... lurking in
the back of, and haunting every forecaster's mind, is the spectre of 15th
October 1987 :-)

Will
--

That weatheronline expert charts website is excellent. Nice to be able
to compare models so easily.

I often use the charts of grib data available from
http://www.grib.us
You can download free software from here to get the high res gfs data
from anywhere in the world.
- Global GFS Data
- updated every 6 hours (runtime + 5 hours)
- 3 hour time-steps
- native resolution of 0.5° x 0.5°
- 7 day forecasts

It's very user friendly. I like the meteograms delivered for any
location with a click of the mouse.

Regarding the Sunday storm, GFS output is only giving 30 knots, gusts
of course may be a bit scary. Conditions at sea will be nasty,
especially the southern N Sea.
Rainfall rates are forecast to be only between 3 and 4 mm/hr. The
modelling of these is the trickiest part as we all know.

Len
Wembury, SW Devon

On 30 Oct, 20:59, "Will Hand" wrote:

I also like the ability to look back over previous runs as the software
cleverly matches VT with lead time. Time-lagged ensembles anyone? Massive
difference between 06Z run and 12Z run.
I feel like my life has been transformed - for the better :-)

I've just noticed that changing the run base time keeps the same
verification time: magnificent for comparing inter-run variability.
Take the 12z GMT verification for the most recent runs:

06Z Sat: 980mb, 00Z Sat: 989mb, 18Z Fri: 981mb, 12Z Fri: 985mb

Interesting the location was on the Yorkshire coast up until the 06Z
run this morning when it's now over the Lake District now - and now
slightly more intense gradients, but as Jon said earlier, you can't
beat 1mb intervals for getting the wind up, pardon the pun.

Richard

On Oct 30, 10:17*am, Richard Dixon wrote:
Dear All,

http://meteocentre.com/tracking/EUROPE/index.html

Another useful back from the Meteocentre guys, I quite like the
potential in:

http://meteocentre.com/tracking/EURO...-168_l3_00.gif

Richard

Richard - thank you. This is quite fun and the gathering of the UK
pressure maps could actually make me change from wetterzentrale as my
first point of contact! Much appreciated.