For the first time in weeks, the "wxmaps" GFS chart shows a blob of blue
over England:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

This, of course, is due to the 12z GFS run but interestingly it's not a cold
outlier. The 12z GFS itself shows a succession of lows trundling over the
UK, from a NW'ly source and thus not especially mild. There'll be plenty of
rain as well, which is raising my hopes that we'll get a cold and wet
November.

Why's that so exciting, I hear you ask? Well, I seem to remember Paul
Bartlett saying that they're one of many signs that can point to a cold
winter ahead. Furthermore, I believe there was something about a warm, dry
October followed by a cold, wet November being a good portent of a cold
winter.

We've just had a warm and dry October: Hadley has +1.0C up to the 30th,
while Philip Eden shows +0.9C for the whole month - and just 69% of normal
rainfall. That's half of the experiment out of the way, now if we can manage
an equivalently cold and wet November I'll be most intrigued to see what
follows!

I remember Paul Bartlett saying this too Darren so i am keeping an eye on
it. However I also remember him throwing towel in as he believe global
warming makes his methods inaccurate now. Still be interesting to see though


Stan

"Darren Prescott" wrote in message
...
For the first time in weeks, the "wxmaps" GFS chart shows a blob of blue
over England:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

This, of course, is due to the 12z GFS run but interestingly it's not a
cold outlier. The 12z GFS itself shows a succession of lows trundling over
the UK, from a NW'ly source and thus not especially mild. There'll be
plenty of rain as well, which is raising my hopes that we'll get a cold
and wet November.

Why's that so exciting, I hear you ask? Well, I seem to remember Paul
Bartlett saying that they're one of many signs that can point to a cold
winter ahead. Furthermore, I believe there was something about a warm, dry
October followed by a cold, wet November being a good portent of a cold
winter.

We've just had a warm and dry October: Hadley has +1.0C up to the 30th,
while Philip Eden shows +0.9C for the whole month - and just 69% of normal
rainfall. That's half of the experiment out of the way, now if we can
manage an equivalently cold and wet November I'll be most intrigued to see
what follows!

On Nov 1, 5:46*pm, "Darren Prescott" wrote:
For the first time in weeks, the "wxmaps" GFS chart shows a blob of blue
over England:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

This, of course, is due to the 12z GFS run but interestingly it's not a cold
outlier. The 12z GFS itself shows a succession of lows trundling over the
UK, from a NW'ly source and thus not especially mild. There'll be plenty of
rain as well, which is raising my hopes that we'll get a cold and wet
November.

Why's that so exciting, I hear you ask? Well, I seem to remember Paul
Bartlett saying that they're one of many signs that can point to a cold
winter ahead. Furthermore, I believe there was something about a warm, dry
October followed by a cold, wet November being a good portent of a cold
winter.

Don't believe a word of it Darren!

On 1 Nov, 17:46, "Darren Prescott" wrote:
For the first time in weeks, the "wxmaps" GFS chart shows a blob of blue
over England:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

This, of course, is due to the 12z GFS run but interestingly it's not a cold
outlier. The 12z GFS itself shows a succession of lows trundling over the
UK, from a NW'ly source and thus not especially mild. There'll be plenty of
rain as well, which is raising my hopes that we'll get a cold and wet
November.

Why's that so exciting, I hear you ask? Well, I seem to remember Paul
Bartlett saying that they're one of many signs that can point to a cold
winter ahead. Furthermore, I believe there was something about a warm, dry
October followed by a cold, wet November being a good portent of a cold
winter.

I'll try and get a second-hand quote from Mr Summat Is Up Bartlett...!

Richard

Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 1, 5:46 pm, "Darren Prescott" wrote:
For the first time in weeks, the "wxmaps" GFS chart shows a blob of blue
over England:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

This, of course, is due to the 12z GFS run but interestingly it's not a cold
outlier. The 12z GFS itself shows a succession of lows trundling over the
UK, from a NW'ly source and thus not especially mild. There'll be plenty of
rain as well, which is raising my hopes that we'll get a cold and wet
November.

Why's that so exciting, I hear you ask? Well, I seem to remember Paul
Bartlett saying that they're one of many signs that can point to a cold
winter ahead. Furthermore, I believe there was something about a warm, dry
October followed by a cold, wet November being a good portent of a cold
winter.

Don't believe a word of it Darren!


I go back to that saying about "November and ice on ducks back and the
rest of winter will be slush and muck", I my experience from the last
thirty years in this area seems to follow that rule as a whole. Mild and
Fog for November please, but that looks highly unlikely :-( But with my
daughter having to do a lot of driving this winter, I'd rather no fog at
all if I were honest.

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

On Nov 1, 8:52*pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 1, 5:46 pm, "Darren Prescott" wrote:
For the first time in weeks, the "wxmaps" GFS chart shows a blob of blue
over England:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

This, of course, is due to the 12z GFS run but interestingly it's not a cold
outlier. The 12z GFS itself shows a succession of lows trundling over the
UK, from a NW'ly source and thus not especially mild. There'll be plenty of
rain as well, which is raising my hopes that we'll get a cold and wet
November.

Why's that so exciting, I hear you ask? Well, I seem to remember Paul
Bartlett saying that they're one of many signs that can point to a cold
winter ahead. Furthermore, I believe there was something about a warm, dry
October followed by a cold, wet November being a good portent of a cold
winter.

Don't believe a word of it Darren!

I go back to that saying about "November and ice on ducks back and the
rest of winter will be slush and muck", I my experience from the last
thirty years in this area seems to follow that rule as a whole. Mild and
Fog for November please, but that looks highly unlikely :-( But with my
daughter having to do a lot of driving this winter, I'd rather no fog at
all if I were honest.

--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

I'm not sure we'll get all that much ice either - though a number of
frosty nights seem likely. The low track of Greenland-UK-Germany-Italy
seems to be remarkably persistent though for the next 2 weeks. Reminds
me of 1996, when it was cold until January 10th, though rather mild
after that.

Nick

Well I look at winter of 1981. I believe that November 1980 was cold and
frosty in Liverpool with frost seeming to last longer and longer through the
day until the heavy snows hit in December, January and February.

One of few years I remember were people seemed to get used to the snow and
any brief mild interludes were the exception. That winter (along side 1978)
were only 2 I remember the snow piled up to window in front garden in our
house in suburbs of Liverpool (and close to sea level and 1 mile from
coast). Fond memories of sledging down a hill just outside school I went to
most lunch times that winter (on our school bags).

Stan

"Nick" wrote in message
...
On Nov 1, 8:52 pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 1, 5:46 pm, "Darren Prescott" wrote:
For the first time in weeks, the "wxmaps" GFS chart shows a blob of
blue
over England:

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

This, of course, is due to the 12z GFS run but interestingly it's not
a cold
outlier. The 12z GFS itself shows a succession of lows trundling over
the
UK, from a NW'ly source and thus not especially mild. There'll be
plenty of
rain as well, which is raising my hopes that we'll get a cold and wet
November.

Why's that so exciting, I hear you ask? Well, I seem to remember Paul
Bartlett saying that they're one of many signs that can point to a
cold
winter ahead. Furthermore, I believe there was something about a warm,
dry
October followed by a cold, wet November being a good portent of a
cold
winter.

Don't believe a word of it Darren!

I go back to that saying about "November and ice on ducks back and the
rest of winter will be slush and muck", I my experience from the last
thirty years in this area seems to follow that rule as a whole. Mild and
Fog for November please, but that looks highly unlikely :-( But with my
daughter having to do a lot of driving this winter, I'd rather no fog at
all if I were honest.

--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

I'm not sure we'll get all that much ice either - though a number of
frosty nights seem likely. The low track of Greenland-UK-Germany-Italy
seems to be remarkably persistent though for the next 2 weeks. Reminds
me of 1996, when it was cold until January 10th, though rather mild
after that.

Nick