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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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![]() "Will Hand" wrote in message news:... Thought I'd use the NAE output shown at http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-b...&ARCHIV=0&WMO= to estimate what 1800-1800 rainfall total I would be reading at Haytor tomorrow 1st Nov. The gridpoint nearest to Dartmoor gives 23mm accumulation, the model will not have the right elevation or exposure at that point and from experience I would say that applying a factor of 1.5 is reasonable and would give 34 mm. This seems about right for a moving system running to the north of me. Let's see how 30-35 mm pans out! *Assuming of course that the synoptics go to plan*. Synoptics went precisely to plan. Cold front came through at 0915 with a 3 degree temperature drop and wind veer then sunshine after heavy horizontal rain and a strong and gusty wind up to F7 on the open moor. Rainfall 1800-1800 measured in 5" gauge was 37.9mm, so not a bad forecast of 34mm :-)) Interesting elevated Davis AWS recorded 26.7mm (a massive 11.2 mm under-read due to the very windy and turbulent conditions with fine & dense droplet rainfall for some of the time). max. rate was 40mm/h at 0700 GMT. I shall now use a factor of 1.6 for forecasting rain at Haytor in frontal systems using that NAE gridpoint. Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl). -- |
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On Nov 1, 5:54*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Will Hand" wrote in message news:... Thought I'd use the NAE output shown at http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-b...G=en&MENU=0000... to estimate what 1800-1800 rainfall total I would be reading at Haytor tomorrow 1st Nov. The gridpoint nearest to Dartmoor gives 23mm accumulation, the model will not have the right elevation or exposure at that point and from experience I would say that applying a factor of 1.5 is reasonable and would give 34 mm. This seems about right for a moving system running to the north of me. Let's see how 30-35 mm pans out! *Assuming of course that the synoptics go to plan*. Synoptics went precisely to plan. Cold front came through at 0915 with a 3 degree temperature drop and wind veer then sunshine after heavy horizontal rain and a strong and gusty wind up to F7 on the open moor. Rainfall 1800-1800 measured in 5" gauge was 37.9mm, so not a bad forecast of 34mm :-)) Interesting elevated Davis AWS recorded 26.7mm (a massive 11.2 mm under-read due to the very windy and turbulent conditions with fine & dense droplet rainfall for some of the time). max. rate was 40mm/h at 0700 GMT. I shall now use a factor of 1.6 for forecasting rain at Haytor in frontal systems using that NAE gridpoint. Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl). -- Will, the choice of your gridpoint from the NAE model forecast Sat.18 GMT is interesting. It gives 22 mm for the 6 hours 03-09 GMT during the passage of the storm. This gridpoint is nearest to me in SW Devon too, and is the one I would take. We only had 13 mm rain here in Wembury, and 11mm at Plymouth Mount Batten. Haytor is about 70 km from Wembury.The forecast seemed a success for you (with your 1.6 enhancement for ascent), but not for the masses of people in the Plymouth area. I would like to think the higher res of the NAE model is improving forecast accuracy but I am not so convinced. I am not anti-UKMO, they are doing their best to try and model these smaller scale processes, so hats off to them. I think though some of their claims about future success in forecasting on the very small scale (100 km) are a bit fanciful. Len Wood Wembury, SW Devon. 83 m asl |
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