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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Friday.
Issued 0537, 2nd November 2009 The end of the working week will see a trough crossing the UK, with rain for all. Low pressure will then fill near or over the UK during the weekend, bringing further rain. Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS A deep low lies to the NE, with moderate to strong WSW'lies and SW'lies for the UK. Tomorrow the winds become SW'lies as a trough approaches from the west, followed by WSW'lies on Wednesdy as the trough moves eastwards. Thursday sees another trough cross the UK, with westerlies. T+120 synopsis http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn12014.png / http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jetstream chart shows a very strong, southerly-tracking jet over the North Atlantic and Biscay. At the 500hPa level there's a strong westerly flow over the UK, while ECM shows a much weaker NW'ly flow aloft. MetO brings SW'lies aloft with a low to the WNW, while GEM has upper southerlies and a low to the west. JMA has southerlies aloft too. At the surface, GFS brings strong WSW'lies with a low to the north of Scotland. ECM has a weak low to the east and northerlies for most, while MetO has SW'lies and a trough crossing the UK. GEM shows strong southerlies ahead of a trough and JMA brings southerlies, also ahead of a trough. Evolution to T+168 ECM brings a weak low and light winds over the UK on day 6, followed by a col on day 7. GFS has a complex low over the UK on day 6, followed by northerlies as a weak ridge crosses Scotland on day 7. Looking further afield ECM shows SW'lies setting in across the UK from days 8 to 10, with low pressure near Iceland and a ridge to the south. Day 8 with GFS shows a col, followed by SW'lies on days 9 and 10 as a low deepens near Iceland. Ensemble analysis (http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res) The ensembles continue to show a generally cool and wet outlook. |
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