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Old November 2nd 09, 05:38 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (2/11/09)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Friday.
Issued 0537, 2nd November 2009

The end of the working week will see a trough crossing the UK, with rain for
all. Low pressure will then fill near or over the UK during the weekend,
bringing further rain.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
A deep low lies to the NE, with moderate to strong WSW'lies and SW'lies for
the UK. Tomorrow the winds become SW'lies as a trough approaches from the
west, followed by WSW'lies on Wednesdy as the trough moves eastwards.
Thursday sees another trough cross the UK, with westerlies.

T+120 synopsis
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn12014.png /
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a very strong, southerly-tracking jet over the
North Atlantic and Biscay. At the 500hPa level there's a strong westerly
flow over the UK, while ECM shows a much weaker NW'ly flow aloft. MetO
brings SW'lies aloft with a low to the WNW, while GEM has upper southerlies
and a low to the west. JMA has southerlies aloft too.
At the surface, GFS brings strong WSW'lies with a low to the north of
Scotland. ECM has a weak low to the east and northerlies for most, while
MetO has SW'lies and a trough crossing the UK. GEM shows strong southerlies
ahead of a trough and JMA brings southerlies, also ahead of a trough.

Evolution to T+168
ECM brings a weak low and light winds over the UK on day 6, followed by a
col on day 7.
GFS has a complex low over the UK on day 6, followed by northerlies as a
weak ridge crosses Scotland on day 7.

Looking further afield
ECM shows SW'lies setting in across the UK from days 8 to 10, with low
pressure near Iceland and a ridge to the south.
Day 8 with GFS shows a col, followed by SW'lies on days 9 and 10 as a low
deepens near Iceland.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res)
The ensembles continue to show a generally cool and wet outlook.



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