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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#11
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On Nov 3, 6:59*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 3, 6:57*am, Dawlish wrote: On Nov 2, 9:35*pm, "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote: "Richard Dixon" wrote: http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/p...wact31&fsize=0 Is there any evidence that the "monthly forecasts" to be found there are, in fact, the monthly forecasts issued to their customer(s)? Philip My earlier point entirely.To gain access to the forecasts to be able to verify them could cost you £500. The only verification I've been able to do is on forecasts which weatheronline have published in the press. Even then the criteria that Piers uses for verifiocation probably isn't the criteria that I'd use. Nevertheless, there is some validity in that ad hoc verification because of the numbers of times that I've gone back to piers' forecasts and shown that they were clearly wrong. If an 85% success rate is to be believed, that would mean that an amazing amount of forecasts would have to becorrect (34, if 6 were wrong). I'd need to see evidence of forecast verification criteria for each of the forecasts of which that weatheronline claim to have been correct. Sadly, that is not available and is unlikely ever to be. FWIW, Piers has forecast a colder than average winter. as have most people who wish to publicise their cold cause (and those who hope to vilify the MetO). If this one forecast proves correct; I can assure you that it does not prove that the MetO cannot forecast the winter season. I don't actually believe that they can - I believe seasonal forecasting is unfortunately not possible with accuracy at present - but someone else's statistically invalid lucky guess doesn't prove that. OTOH, there is nothing that says that the UK cannot get a cold winter in a warming trend; it is just less likely that it was 30-40 years ago. 3/1 a colder than average winter; 3/1 any named month being colder than average. Any takers? Piers? Sorry, I don't mean weatheronline, I mean Weatheraction! Apologies. (blushes) *))- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - This article that Lawrence referred to is actually very interesting. I enjoyed the read. http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereport...ttraction.html |
#12
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![]() "Dawlish" wrote in message ... On Nov 3, 6:59 am, Dawlish wrote: On Nov 3, 6:57 am, Dawlish wrote: On Nov 2, 9:35 pm, "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote: "Richard Dixon" wrote: http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/p...wact31&fsize=0 Is there any evidence that the "monthly forecasts" to be found there are, in fact, the monthly forecasts issued to their customer(s)? Philip My earlier point entirely.To gain access to the forecasts to be able to verify them could cost you £500. The only verification I've been able to do is on forecasts which weatheronline have published in the press. Even then the criteria that Piers uses for verifiocation probably isn't the criteria that I'd use. Nevertheless, there is some validity in that ad hoc verification because of the numbers of times that I've gone back to piers' forecasts and shown that they were clearly wrong. If an 85% success rate is to be believed, that would mean that an amazing amount of forecasts would have to becorrect (34, if 6 were wrong). I'd need to see evidence of forecast verification criteria for each of the forecasts of which that weatheronline claim to have been correct. Sadly, that is not available and is unlikely ever to be. FWIW, Piers has forecast a colder than average winter. as have most people who wish to publicise their cold cause (and those who hope to vilify the MetO). If this one forecast proves correct; I can assure you that it does not prove that the MetO cannot forecast the winter season. I don't actually believe that they can - I believe seasonal forecasting is unfortunately not possible with accuracy at present - but someone else's statistically invalid lucky guess doesn't prove that. OTOH, there is nothing that says that the UK cannot get a cold winter in a warming trend; it is just less likely that it was 30-40 years ago. 3/1 a colder than average winter; 3/1 any named month being colder than average. Any takers? Piers? Sorry, I don't mean weatheronline, I mean Weatheraction! Apologies. (blushes) *))- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - This article that Lawrence referred to is actually very interesting. I enjoyed the read. http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereport...ttraction.html Oi Garvey drop the sarcasm. I linked the Corbyn BBC article as he has made a clear forecast; you know the ones you're too stingy to pay for. Anyhow its a verifiable very definite forecast that is literally days away. That's why I linked and not as you would seem to imply that I was agreeing with Corbyn's forecasting ability. Your trouble is Paul you see the world a purely black and white so therefore because I'm not gung ho for AGW it follows that I support Corbyn in your small town view. No Paul like the climate and climate science things are not that simple, but you know that, right? |
#13
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On Nov 3, 9:10*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message ... On Nov 3, 8:28 pm, "Will Hand" wrote: "Dawlish" wrote in message .... On Nov 3, 6:59 am, Dawlish wrote: On Nov 3, 6:57 am, Dawlish wrote: On Nov 2, 9:35 pm, "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote: "Richard Dixon" wrote: http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/p...wact31&fsize=0 Is there any evidence that the "monthly forecasts" to be found there are, in fact, the monthly forecasts issued to their customer(s)? Philip My earlier point entirely.To gain access to the forecasts to be able to verify them could cost you £500. The only verification I've been able to do is on forecasts which weatheronline have published in the press. Even then the criteria that Piers uses for verifiocation probably isn't the criteria that I'd use. Nevertheless, there is some validity in that ad hoc verification because of the numbers of times that I've gone back to piers' forecasts and shown that they were clearly wrong. If an 85% success rate is to be believed, that would mean that an amazing amount of forecasts would have to becorrect (34, if 6 were wrong). I'd need to see evidence of forecast verification criteria for each of the forecasts of which that weatheronline claim to have been correct. |
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