On Nov 3, 6:59*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 3, 6:57*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Nov 2, 9:35*pm, "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom
wrote:

"Richard Dixon" wrote:
http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/p...wact31&fsize=0

Is there any evidence that the "monthly forecasts" to be
found there are, in fact, the monthly forecasts issued to
their customer(s)?

Philip

My earlier point entirely.To gain access to the forecasts to be able
to verify them could cost you £500. The only verification I've been
able to do is on forecasts which weatheronline have published in the
press. Even then the criteria that Piers uses for verifiocation
probably isn't the criteria that I'd use. Nevertheless, there is some
validity in that ad hoc verification because of the numbers of times
that I've gone back to piers' forecasts and shown that they were
clearly wrong.

If an 85% success rate is to be believed, that would mean that an
amazing amount of forecasts would have to becorrect (34, if 6 were
wrong).

I'd need to see evidence of forecast verification criteria for each of
the forecasts of which that weatheronline claim to have been correct.
Sadly, that is not available and is unlikely ever to be.

FWIW, Piers has forecast a colder than average winter. as have most
people who wish to publicise their cold cause (and those who hope to
vilify the MetO). If this one forecast proves correct; I can assure
you that it does not prove that the MetO cannot forecast the winter
season. I don't actually believe that they can - I believe seasonal
forecasting is unfortunately not possible with accuracy at present -
but someone else's statistically invalid lucky guess doesn't prove
that.

OTOH, there is nothing that says that the UK cannot get a cold winter
in a warming trend; it is just less likely that it was 30-40 years
ago. 3/1 a colder than average winter; 3/1 any named month being
colder than average. Any takers? Piers?

Sorry, I don't mean weatheronline, I mean Weatheraction! Apologies.
(blushes) *))- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

This article that Lawrence referred to is actually very interesting. I
enjoyed the read.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereport...ttraction.html

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Nov 3, 6:59 am, Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 3, 6:57 am, Dawlish wrote:





On Nov 2, 9:35 pm, "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom
wrote:

"Richard Dixon" wrote:
http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/p...wact31&fsize=0

Is there any evidence that the "monthly forecasts" to be
found there are, in fact, the monthly forecasts issued to
their customer(s)?

Philip

My earlier point entirely.To gain access to the forecasts to be able
to verify them could cost you £500. The only verification I've been
able to do is on forecasts which weatheronline have published in the
press. Even then the criteria that Piers uses for verifiocation
probably isn't the criteria that I'd use. Nevertheless, there is some
validity in that ad hoc verification because of the numbers of times
that I've gone back to piers' forecasts and shown that they were
clearly wrong.

If an 85% success rate is to be believed, that would mean that an
amazing amount of forecasts would have to becorrect (34, if 6 were
wrong).

I'd need to see evidence of forecast verification criteria for each of
the forecasts of which that weatheronline claim to have been correct.
Sadly, that is not available and is unlikely ever to be.

FWIW, Piers has forecast a colder than average winter. as have most
people who wish to publicise their cold cause (and those who hope to
vilify the MetO). If this one forecast proves correct; I can assure
you that it does not prove that the MetO cannot forecast the winter
season. I don't actually believe that they can - I believe seasonal
forecasting is unfortunately not possible with accuracy at present -
but someone else's statistically invalid lucky guess doesn't prove
that.

OTOH, there is nothing that says that the UK cannot get a cold winter
in a warming trend; it is just less likely that it was 30-40 years
ago. 3/1 a colder than average winter; 3/1 any named month being
colder than average. Any takers? Piers?

Sorry, I don't mean weatheronline, I mean Weatheraction! Apologies.
(blushes) *))- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

This article that Lawrence referred to is actually very interesting. I
enjoyed the read.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereport...ttraction.html


Oi Garvey drop the sarcasm. I linked the Corbyn BBC article as he has made a
clear forecast; you know the ones you're too stingy to pay for. Anyhow its a
verifiable very definite forecast that is literally days away. That's why I
linked and not as you would seem to imply that I was agreeing with Corbyn's
forecasting ability. Your trouble is Paul you see the world a purely black
and white so therefore because I'm not gung ho for AGW it follows that I
support Corbyn in your small town view. No Paul like the climate and
climate science things are not that simple, but you know that, right?

On Nov 3, 9:10*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Nov 3, 8:28 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:





"Dawlish" wrote in message

....
On Nov 3, 6:59 am, Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 3, 6:57 am, Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 2, 9:35 pm, "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom
wrote:

"Richard Dixon" wrote:
http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/p...wact31&fsize=0

Is there any evidence that the "monthly forecasts" to be
found there are, in fact, the monthly forecasts issued to
their customer(s)?

Philip

My earlier point entirely.To gain access to the forecasts to be able
to verify them could cost you £500. The only verification I've been
able to do is on forecasts which weatheronline have published in the
press. Even then the criteria that Piers uses for verifiocation
probably isn't the criteria that I'd use. Nevertheless, there is some
validity in that ad hoc verification because of the numbers of times
that I've gone back to piers' forecasts and shown that they were
clearly wrong.

If an 85% success rate is to be believed, that would mean that an
amazing amount of forecasts would have to becorrect (34, if 6 were
wrong).

I'd need to see evidence of forecast verification criteria for each of
the forecasts of which that weatheronline claim to have been correct.