http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/p...wact31&fsize=0

Richard

What's he saying about the coming winter Richard ?

RonB
"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/p...wact31&fsize=0

Richard

On 2 Nov, 17:16, "ronaldbutton" wrote:
What's he saying about the coming winter Richard ?

Probably something along the lines of this...

50 per cent chance of cold snap in early to mid February caused by
solar particle disturbance between Southwark Bridge and Borough High
Street.
The nation should also beware of high probability of hill snow on the
highest glens thoughout December.

Scott W wrote:
On 2 Nov, 17:16, "ronaldbutton" wrote:
What's he saying about the coming winter Richard ?

Probably something along the lines of this...

50 per cent chance of cold snap in early to mid February caused by
solar particle disturbance between Southwark Bridge and Borough High
Street.
The nation should also beware of high probability of hill snow on the
highest glens thoughout December.

No no no, it's because I'm out the Country ;-)

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

"Richard Dixon" wrote:

http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/p...wact31&fsize=0

Is there any evidence that the "monthly forecasts" to be
found there are, in fact, the monthly forecasts issued to
their customer(s)?

Philip

On 2 Nov, 21:35, "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote:
"Richard Dixon" wrote:
http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/p...wact31&fsize=0

Is there any evidence that the "monthly forecasts" to be
found there are, in fact, the monthly forecasts issued to
their customer(s)?

Very good point. I wonder if any readers on here who happen to have a
forecast to hand might be able to verify.

Richard

On Nov 2, 9:35*pm, "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom
wrote:
"Richard Dixon" wrote:
http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/p...wact31&fsize=0

Is there any evidence that the "monthly forecasts" to be
found there are, in fact, the monthly forecasts issued to
their customer(s)?

Philip

My earlier point entirely.To gain access to the forecasts to be able
to verify them could cost you £500. The only verification I've been
able to do is on forecasts which weatheronline have published in the
press. Even then the criteria that Piers uses for verifiocation
probably isn't the criteria that I'd use. Nevertheless, there is some
validity in that ad hoc verification because of the numbers of times
that I've gone back to piers' forecasts and shown that they were
clearly wrong.

If an 85% success rate is to be believed, that would mean that an
amazing amount of forecasts would have to becorrect (34, if 6 were
wrong).

I'd need to see evidence of forecast verification criteria for each of
the forecasts of which that weatheronline claim to have been correct.
Sadly, that is not available and is unlikely ever to be.

FWIW, Piers has forecast a colder than average winter. as have most
people who wish to publicise their cold cause (and those who hope to
vilify the MetO). If this one forecast proves correct; I can assure
you that it does not prove that the MetO cannot forecast the winter
season. I don't actually believe that they can - I believe seasonal
forecasting is unfortunately not possible with accuracy at present -
but someone else's statistically invalid lucky guess doesn't prove
that.

OTOH, there is nothing that says that the UK cannot get a cold winter
in a warming trend; it is just less likely that it was 30-40 years
ago. 3/1 a colder than average winter; 3/1 any named month being
colder than average. Any takers? Piers?

On Nov 3, 6:57*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 2, 9:35*pm, "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom
wrote:

"Richard Dixon" wrote:
http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/p...wact31&fsize=0

Is there any evidence that the "monthly forecasts" to be
found there are, in fact, the monthly forecasts issued to
their customer(s)?

Philip

My earlier point entirely.To gain access to the forecasts to be able
to verify them could cost you £500. The only verification I've been
able to do is on forecasts which weatheronline have published in the
press. Even then the criteria that Piers uses for verifiocation
probably isn't the criteria that I'd use. Nevertheless, there is some
validity in that ad hoc verification because of the numbers of times
that I've gone back to piers' forecasts and shown that they were
clearly wrong.

If an 85% success rate is to be believed, that would mean that an
amazing amount of forecasts would have to becorrect (34, if 6 were
wrong).

I'd need to see evidence of forecast verification criteria for each of
the forecasts of which that weatheronline claim to have been correct.
Sadly, that is not available and is unlikely ever to be.

FWIW, Piers has forecast a colder than average winter. as have most
people who wish to publicise their cold cause (and those who hope to
vilify the MetO). If this one forecast proves correct; I can assure
you that it does not prove that the MetO cannot forecast the winter
season. I don't actually believe that they can - I believe seasonal
forecasting is unfortunately not possible with accuracy at present -
but someone else's statistically invalid lucky guess doesn't prove
that.

OTOH, there is nothing that says that the UK cannot get a cold winter
in a warming trend; it is just less likely that it was 30-40 years
ago. 3/1 a colder than average winter; 3/1 any named month being
colder than average. Any takers? Piers?

Sorry, I don't mean weatheronline, I mean Weatheraction! Apologies.
(blushes) *))

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/p...wact31&fsize=0

Richard


Hmmm Piers is also predicting an 80% chance of a storm surge in the North
Sea for around the 17-19 November.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereport...ttraction.html

Now that would be interesting as we don't have too many of those, I guess
we'd be looking for low pressure in the north sea. with a northerly push.
Put his neck on the line with that one

"ronaldbutton" wrote in message
...
What's he saying about the coming winter Richard ?

RonB
"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/p...wact31&fsize=0

Richard



Probably repeating myself but I remember the first Weather Action winter
forecast I can recall was for the winter of 1980/81. With that one Piers was
predicting very cold temperatures with record lows, mind you saying that
81/82 was a bit special up until early January. He was only one year out
give the kid a break.