If the GFS is to be believed it could end up being an extremely wet
November, particularly from the middle of next week. There seems to
have been a recent tendency for very, very wet Novembers, with very
active fronts and thundery showers between the fronts, every 3 years
or so in the last 10 years or so - for example 2006, 2002, 2000, 1997
all following the same sort of pattern.

This differs from how I remember November in the 80s and early 90s,
which tended to be a rather gloomy month with frequent steady, but
never heavy, rain interspersed with foggy periods and the odd frosty
high. November always used to be more "settled", if significantly
gloomier, than October, while these days October, the archetypal
"Atlantic" month, is often settled and can almost pass as a summer
month were it not for the relatively early sunset.

So has this time of year become more cyclonic?

Nick

Nick wrote:

If the GFS is to be believed it could end up being an extremely wet
November, particularly from the middle of next week. There seems to
have been a recent tendency for very, very wet Novembers, with very
active fronts and thundery showers between the fronts, every 3 years
or so in the last 10 years or so - for example 2006, 2002, 2000, 1997
all following the same sort of pattern.

This differs from how I remember November in the 80s and early 90s,
which tended to be a rather gloomy month with frequent steady, but
never heavy, rain interspersed with foggy periods and the odd frosty
high. November always used to be more "settled", if significantly
gloomier, than October, while these days October, the archetypal
"Atlantic" month, is often settled and can almost pass as a summer
month were it not for the relatively early sunset.

So has this time of year become more cyclonic?

Nick

Long term records show that November is the wettest month in some parts of the
country and one of the wettest in most others. A very quick look at the "World
Weather Guide" shows that November is the wettest month of the year in London,
Birmingham and Plymouth based on 30 years of records. It doesn't say which
30-year period.

Norman

On Nov 6, 8:09*am, Nick wrote:
If the GFS is to be believed it could end up being an extremely wet
November, particularly from the middle of next week. There seems to
have been a recent tendency for very, very wet Novembers, with very
active fronts and thundery showers between the fronts, every 3 years
or so in the last 10 years or so - for example 2006, 2002, 2000, 1997
all following the same sort of pattern.

This differs from how I remember November in the 80s and early 90s,
which tended to be a rather gloomy month with frequent steady, but
never heavy, rain interspersed with foggy periods and the odd frosty
high. November always used to be more "settled", if significantly
gloomier, than October, while these days October, the archetypal
"Atlantic" month, is often settled and can almost pass as a summer
month were it not for the relatively early sunset.

So has this time of year become more cyclonic?

Nick

Ah Weather memory Nick! *)) November really is the wettest month in
some areas over a long period of time.

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Nov 6, 8:09 am, Nick wrote:
If the GFS is to be believed it could end up being an extremely wet
November, particularly from the middle of next week. There seems to
have been a recent tendency for very, very wet Novembers, with very
active fronts and thundery showers between the fronts, every 3 years
or so in the last 10 years or so - for example 2006, 2002, 2000, 1997
all following the same sort of pattern.

This differs from how I remember November in the 80s and early 90s,
which tended to be a rather gloomy month with frequent steady, but
never heavy, rain interspersed with foggy periods and the odd frosty
high. November always used to be more "settled", if significantly
gloomier, than October, while these days October, the archetypal
"Atlantic" month, is often settled and can almost pass as a summer
month were it not for the relatively early sunset.

So has this time of year become more cyclonic?

Nick

Ah Weather memory Nick! *)) November really is the wettest month in
some areas over a long period of time.
======

2nd wettest month usually in Haytor with 188 mm. wettest is reserved for
December with 209 mm.
I know where Nick is coming from though, bonfire nights in my childhood (in
the 60s) were inevitably dry and frosty (and very smoky). Or were they .....

Will
--

On 6 Nov, 08:09, Nick wrote:
If the GFS is to be believed it could end up being an extremely wet
November, particularly from the middle of next week. There seems to
have been a recent tendency for very, very wet Novembers, with very
active fronts and thundery showers between the fronts, every 3 years
or so in the last 10 years or so - for example 2006, 2002, 2000, 1997
all following the same sort of pattern.

This differs from how I remember November in the 80s and early 90s,
which tended to be a rather gloomy month with frequent steady, but
never heavy, rain interspersed with foggy periods and the odd frosty
high. November always used to be more "settled", if significantly
gloomier, than October, while these days October, the archetypal
"Atlantic" month, is often settled and can almost pass as a summer
month were it not for the relatively early sunset.

So has this time of year become more cyclonic?

Nick

It's always been notoriously wet here. Wettest month of the year on
average.

Lovely evening for the fireworks yesterday though, clear skies, full
moon, and around 10C at 20:00

Graham
Penzance

"Nick" wrote :

So has this time of year become more cyclonic?

Circulation indices in the vicinity of the British Isles
for November since 1873 can be seen he
http://www.climate-uk.com/indices/11.htm

Philip

Would be interesting to see these for winter months and summer months.

I believe according to climate scientist GW should mean for British isles
winters becoming more cyclonic and summers anti-cyclonic, at least in
southern half.

"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
...

"Nick" wrote :

So has this time of year become more cyclonic?

Circulation indices in the vicinity of the British Isles
for November since 1873 can be seen he
http://www.climate-uk.com/indices/11.htm

Philip

On Nov 6, 3:24*pm, "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom
wrote:
"Nick" wrote :

So has this time of year become more cyclonic?

Circulation indices in the vicinity of the British Isles
for November since 1873 can be seen hehttp://www.climate-uk.com/indices/11.htm

Philip

Ought to be looking at autumn Sep,Oct,Nov.,in general.
Anyway, the indices are interesting Philip. There is no trend in Oct
or Nov. westerliness over the whole period, but very recently, i.e.
last decade, an upturn.
For Oct. there seems less anticylonicity since the peak in the late
70s. Nov. trend is less convincing over recent decades.

The autumn (Sep,Oct,Nov) rainfall totals for Pymouth 1874-2008 show no
trend.
Average 273 mm
Stand. dev. 85 mm
If a rather arbitrary value for extreme wetness when total400 mm is
looked for, this occurred in the following years:
1875 435
1929 471
1932 412
1935 439
1949 420
1960 492
1984 407
2000 467

"Stan" wrote in message
...
| Would be interesting to see these for winter months and summer months.
|
| I believe according to climate scientist GW should mean for British isles
| winters becoming more cyclonic and summers anti-cyclonic, at least in
| southern half.
|

When do we start, at least for the anticyclonic summers? Haven't been many
of those these last three years. Two cyclonic and one less so is the count
here in the "deep south". For those further north who can no longer get
flood insurance, the promise of warmer, drier summers looks like a cruel
joke (which, of course, this year rebounded spectacularly on the Met.
Office).

Or has my taking up playing cricket three years ago had some miraculous
effect which overrides the "global warming" signal?

Just a moment while I put some more coal on the fire before oiling the
bat...
--
- Yokel -

"Yokel" posts via a spam-trap account which is not read.

On Nov 6, 8:14*pm, "Yokel" wrote:
"Stan" wrote in message

...
| Would be interesting to see these for winter months and summer months.
|
| I believe according to climate scientist GW should mean for British isles
| winters becoming more cyclonic and summers anti-cyclonic, at least in
| southern half.
|

When do we start, at least for the anticyclonic summers? *Haven't been many
of those these last three years. *Two cyclonic and one less so is the count
here in the "deep south". *For those further north who can no longer get
flood insurance, the promise of warmer, drier summers looks like a cruel
joke (which, of course, this year rebounded spectacularly on the Met.
Office).

Or has my taking up playing cricket three years ago had some miraculous
effect which overrides the "global warming" signal?

Just a moment while I put some more coal on the fire before oiling the
bat...
--
* * * * * * * * - Yokel -

"Yokel" posts via a spam-trap account which is not read.

Over a longer period though, the period 1989-2009 seems to have had
better summers than 1980-88 (can't speak for before that, as my first
summer in the south was 1980). And to be fair summer 2009 wasn't that
bad round here (Southampton), particularly if you throw in May and
September. It did seem significantly cloudier than average though, and
high summer was cooler. This seemed to be due to an unusual sea
temperature anomaly though.

Nick