I've noticed the Met Office is advising a weather advisory for
Saturday morning for the south of England for heavy rain, but that
doesn't seem to tie in with the pressure charts: GFS and ECM suggest
some rain going through Friday night (after midnight, so technically
morning I guess) then some more after dark on Saturday - the Met
Office pressure charts suggest the same but the low moving in from the
SW after dark on Saturday seems to be absent. So where do they get
Saturday morning from?

Nick

"Nick" wrote in message
...
I've noticed the Met Office is advising a weather advisory for
Saturday morning for the south of England for heavy rain, but that
doesn't seem to tie in with the pressure charts: GFS and ECM suggest
some rain going through Friday night (after midnight, so technically
morning I guess) then some more after dark on Saturday - the Met
Office pressure charts suggest the same but the low moving in from the
SW after dark on Saturday seems to be absent. So where do they get
Saturday morning from?

Nick

Nick. a band of locally heavy rain will spread NE tomorrow in association
with the occlusion/cold front depicted on the 12Z T+48
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack0a.gif
Further rain is then expected to spread up from the south in association
with the development running up from Biscay at T+60
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif

What perhaps isn't so obvious is a risk of snow on the occlusion overnight
tomorrow across Wales and parts of central/northern England as the front
runs up against colder air in the north. The main risk is over high ground
but with time it cold quite easily descend to low levels on Saturday morning
as the wet-bulb freezing level lowers close to the pivoting front. Something
to keep any eye on anyway..

Jon.

"Nick" wrote in message
...
I've noticed the Met Office is advising a weather advisory for
Saturday morning for the south of England for heavy rain, but that
doesn't seem to tie in with the pressure charts: GFS and ECM suggest
some rain going through Friday night (after midnight, so technically
morning I guess) then some more after dark on Saturday - the Met
Office pressure charts suggest the same but the low moving in from the
SW after dark on Saturday seems to be absent. So where do they get
Saturday morning from?

Nick

Nick. a band of locally heavy rain will spread NE tomorrow in association
with the occlusion/cold front depicted on the 12Z T+48
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack0a.gif
Further rain is then expected to spread up from the south in association
with the development running up from Biscay at T+60
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif

What perhaps isn't so obvious is a risk of snow on the occlusion overnight
tomorrow across Wales and parts of central/northern England as the front
runs up against colder air in the north. The main risk is over high ground
but with time it could quite easily descend to low levels on Saturday
morning
as the wet-bulb freezing level lowers close to the pivoting front. Something
to keep any eye on anyway..

Jon.

Jon O'Rourke wrote:

"Nick" wrote in message
...
I've noticed the Met Office is advising a weather advisory for
Saturday morning for the south of England for heavy rain, but that
doesn't seem to tie in with the pressure charts: GFS and ECM suggest
some rain going through Friday night (after midnight, so technically
morning I guess) then some more after dark on Saturday - the Met
Office pressure charts suggest the same but the low moving in from the
SW after dark on Saturday seems to be absent. So where do they get
Saturday morning from?

Nick

Nick. a band of locally heavy rain will spread NE tomorrow in association
with the occlusion/cold front depicted on the 12Z T+48
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack0a.gif Further rain is then expected to
spread up from the south in association with the development running up from
Biscay at T+60 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack1a.gif

What perhaps isn't so obvious is a risk of snow on the occlusion overnight
tomorrow across Wales and parts of central/northern England as the front runs
up against colder air in the north. The main risk is over high ground but
with time it cold quite easily descend to low levels on Saturday morning as
the wet-bulb freezing level lowers close to the pivoting front. Something to
keep any eye on anyway..

Jon.


The air is already cold enough for showers here this evening to be falling as
sleet. Present temp is 3.0 at 2145z.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.

On Thu, 26 Nov 2009 21:29:54 +0000, Jon O'Rourke wrote:

snip
What perhaps isn't so obvious is a risk of snow on the occlusion
overnight tomorrow across Wales and parts of central/northern England as
the front runs up against colder air in the north. The main risk is over
high ground but with time it cold quite easily descend to low levels on
Saturday morning as the wet-bulb freezing level lowers close to the
pivoting front. Something to keep any eye on anyway..

Jon.

Rob McElwee mentioned this on the BBC1 weather at 22.35 tonight: it
certainly woke me up! Unfortunately the forecast for Sunday, when I have
to spend quite a bit of time outside, has changed during the course of
today from chilly and cloudy but dry to thoroughly wet and miserable, and
with nothing more exciting than cold rain to look forward to.

--
Bewdley, Worcs. ~90m asl.

On Nov 26, 11:39*pm, David Buttery wrote:
On Thu, 26 Nov 2009 21:29:54 +0000, Jon O'Rourke wrote:

snip

What perhaps isn't so obvious is a risk of snow on the occlusion
overnight tomorrow across Wales and parts of central/northern England as
the front runs up against colder air in the north. The main risk is over
high ground but with time it cold quite easily descend to low levels on
Saturday morning as the wet-bulb freezing level lowers close to the
pivoting front. Something to keep any eye on anyway..

Jon.

Rob McElwee mentioned this on the BBC1 weather at 22.35 tonight: it
certainly woke me up! Unfortunately the forecast for Sunday, when I have
to spend quite a bit of time outside, has changed during the course of
today from chilly and cloudy but dry to thoroughly wet and miserable, and
with nothing more exciting than cold rain to look forward to.

--
Bewdley, Worcs. ~90m asl.

On the other hand, slightly better for the south perhaps during
daylight hours over the weekend, if you can tolerate showers.

The ECM for this time next week is looking a bit more interesting now,
with a high to the NE trying to assert influence.

Nick