I'm indebted to Prof Tom Choularton for this update.

An update of the physical science part of the IPCC report has been
prepared, lead authors

The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009: Updating the world on the Latest
Climate Science. I. Allison, N. L. Bindoff, R.A. Bindoff, R.A.
Bindschadler, P.M. Cox, N. de Noblet, M.H. England, J.E. Francis, N.
Gruber, A.M. Haywood, D.J. Karoly, G. Kaser, C. Le Quéré, T.M. Lenton,
M.E. Mann, B.I. McNeil, A.J. Pitman, S. Rahmstorf, E. Rignot, H.J.
Schellnhuber, S.H. Schneider, S.C. Sherwood, R.C.J. Somerville,
K.Steffen, E.J. Steig, M. Visbeck, A.J. Weaver. The University of New
South Wales Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Sydney, Australia,

http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.com/d...d/default.html


Giving an update on the science showing where the science really
stands now

The most significant recent climate change findings a

Surging greenhouse gas emissions: Global carbon dioxide emissions from
fossil fuels in 2008 were nearly 40%
higher than those in 1990. Even if global emission rates are
stabilized at present –day levels, just 20 more years of
emissions would give a 25% probability that warming exceeds 2ºC. Even
with zero emissions after 2030. Every year of delayed action increase
the chances of exceeding 2ºC warming.

Recent global temperatures demonstrate human-based warming: Over the
past 25 years temperatures have
increased at a rate of 0.19ºC per decade, in every good agreement with
predictions based on greenhouse gas increases. Even over the past ten
years, despite a decrease in solar forcing, the trend continues to be
one of warming.

Natural, short- term fluctuations are occurring as usual but there
have been no significant changes in the underlying warming trend.

Acceleration of melting of ice-sheets, glaciers and ice-caps: A wide
array of satellite and ice measurements now
demonstrate beyond doubt that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice-
sheets are losing mass at an increasing rate. Melting of glaciers and
ice-caps in other parts of the world has also accelerated since 1990.

Rapid Arctic sea-ice decline: Summer-time melting of Arctic sea-ice
has accelerated far beyond the expectations of climate models. This
area of sea-ice melt during 2007-2009 was about 40% greater than the
average prediction from IPCC AR4 climate models.

Current sea-level rise underestimates: Satellites show great global
average sea-level rise (3.4 mm/yr over the past
15 years) to be 80% above past IPCC predictions. This acceleration in
sea-level rise is consistent with a doubling in contribution from
melting of glaciers, ice caps and the Greenland and West-Antarctic ice-
sheets.

Sea-level prediction revised: By 2100, global sea-level is likely to
rise at least twice as much as projected by
Working Group 1 of the IPCC AR4, for unmitigated emissions it may well
exceed 1 meter. The upper limit has been estimated as – 2 meters sea-
level rise by 2100. Sea-level will continue to rise for centuries
after global temperature have been stabilized and several meters of
sea level rise must be expected over the next few centuries.

Delay in action risks irreversible damage: Several vulnerable elements
in the climate system (e.g. continental icesheets. Amazon rainforest,
West African monsoon and others) could be pushed towards abrupt or
irreversible change if warming continues in a business-as-usual way
throughout this century. The risk of transgressing critical thresholds
(“tipping points”) increase strongly with ongoing climate change. Thus
waiting for higher levels of scientific certainty could mean that some
tipping points will be crossed before they are recognized.

The turning point must come soon: If global warming is to be limited
to a maximum of 2ºC above pre-industrial
values, global emissions need to peak between 2015 and 2020 and then
decline rapidly. To stabilize climate, a
decarbonized global society – with near-zero emissions of CO2 and
other long-lived greenhouse gases – need to be reached well within
this century. More specifically, the average annual per-capita
emissions will have to shrink to well under 1 metric ton CO2 by 2050.
This is 80-95% below the per-capita emissions in developed nations in
2000.

That's what the climate scientists think and I am minded to believe
what they say, as the outcomes are showing continued warming and the
effects of that warming are already becoming clear. Do we just ignore
this, feeling that it won't happen, or do we encourage the world
leaders at Copenhagan to follow the science and really begin to take
the difficult decisions that will allow our great-grandchildren to
live in a warmer climate (almost certainly that will happen), but
hopefully a climate which will actually allow them to live because of
the decisions and sacrifices we begin to make now.

It really is up to us.

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Nov 28, 7:32 pm, Brian Wakem wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
A wide
array of satellite and ice measurements now
demonstrate beyond doubt that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice-
sheets are losing mass at an increasing rate.

Doran et al. (2002)[13][14] find that "Although previous reports suggest
slight recent continental warming our spatial analysis of Antarctic
meteorological data demonstrates a net cooling on the Antarctic continent
between 1966 and 2000, particularly during summer and autumn. The McMurdo
Dry Valleys have cooled by 0.7 C per decade between 1986 and 2000, with
similar pronounced seasonal trends... Continental Antarctic cooling,
especially the seasonality of cooling, poses challenges to models of
climate and ecosystem change".

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/i...timeseries.png

Rapid Arctic sea-ice decline: Summer-time melting of Arctic sea-ice
has accelerated far beyond the expectations of climate models. This
area of sea-ice melt during 2007-2009 was about 40% greater than the
average prediction from IPCC AR4 climate models.

This makes no sense as there was more ice in 2008 and 2009 than 2007.

Current sea-level rise underestimates:

Stop there. Almost all evidence relating to sea level show no significant
rises at all in the last several decades.

Even those on your own side have been shown to be telling fibs:

"I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps to
each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961
for
Keith's to hide the decline."

AGW is unraveling quickly.

The evidence for climate change is pitiful when compared with the evidence
for the 'theory' of evolution. Yet a climate change denier is hounded and
outcast, while a denier of evolution is allowed to believe what ever they
want.

Religion poses are far greater risk to life than climate change ever
could.

Your time would be better spent ridding the world of religion than CO2.

--
Brian Wakem

Brian, these were not Internet bloggers that produced this summary and
it certainly wasn't me. They were world respected climate scientists
producing as true a picture as possible of the current situation. What
fundamentalists and religious nucases have to do with this is beyond
me and I've spent some difficult moments in education fighting against
them, on the side of real science and commonsense. Which is exactly
what I am doing here.


You can catch Tom Choularton over at TWO
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/forums/6.aspx

In article ,
Lawrence Jenkins writes:

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Nov 28, 7:32 pm, Brian Wakem wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
A wide
array of satellite and ice measurements now
demonstrate beyond doubt that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice-
sheets are losing mass at an increasing rate.

Doran et al. (2002)[13][14] find that "Although previous reports suggest
slight recent continental warming our spatial analysis of Antarctic
meteorological data demonstrates a net cooling on the Antarctic continent
between 1966 and 2000, particularly during summer and autumn. The McMurdo
Dry Valleys have cooled by 0.7 C per decade between 1986 and 2000, with
similar pronounced seasonal trends... Continental Antarctic cooling,
especially the seasonality of cooling, poses challenges to models of
climate and ecosystem change".

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/i...timeseries.png

Rapid Arctic sea-ice decline: Summer-time melting of Arctic sea-ice
has accelerated far beyond the expectations of climate models. This
area of sea-ice melt during 2007-2009 was about 40% greater than the
average prediction from IPCC AR4 climate models.

This makes no sense as there was more ice in 2008 and 2009 than 2007.

Current sea-level rise underestimates:

Stop there. Almost all evidence relating to sea level show no significant
rises at all in the last several decades.

Even those on your own side have been shown to be telling fibs:

"I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps to
each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961
for
Keith's to hide the decline."

AGW is unraveling quickly.

The evidence for climate change is pitiful when compared with the evidence
for the 'theory' of evolution. Yet a climate change denier is hounded and
outcast, while a denier of evolution is allowed to believe what ever they
want.

Religion poses are far greater risk to life than climate change ever
could.

Your time would be better spent ridding the world of religion than CO2.

--
Brian Wakem

Brian, these were not Internet bloggers that produced this summary and
it certainly wasn't me. They were world respected climate scientists
producing as true a picture as possible of the current situation. What
fundamentalists and religious nucases have to do with this is beyond
me and I've spent some difficult moments in education fighting against
them, on the side of real science and commonsense. Which is exactly
what I am doing here.

Brian's on your side! It was Dawlish who was taking issue with his
sources, and thus by inference with you. However the chevrons have got
screwed up, no doubt because someone along the way posted through Google
Groups.
--
John Hall "[It was] so steep that at intervals the street broke into steps,
like a person breaking into giggles or hiccups, and then resumed
its sober climb, until it had another fit of steps."
Ursula K Le Guin "The Beginning Place"

John Hall wrote:

Brian's on your side! It was Dawlish who was taking issue with his
sources, and thus by inference with you. However the chevrons have got
screwed up, no doubt because someone along the way posted through Google
Groups.

It's usually a posting from a person using Google Groups and a reply from
someone else using Mickeysoft. Two dodgy systems. I wish people would use
proper newsreaders as it would make life a lot easier for the rest of us.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."