Col wrote:


"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message
...
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

Have a look at T+384.

Christmas Day Arrmageddon for the SW

Armageddon outahere.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

On 10 Dec, 08:14, Graham P Davis wrote:
Col wrote:

"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message
...
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

Have a look at T+384.

Christmas Day Arrmageddon for the SW

Armageddon outahere.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. *E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

I am really getting twitchy as to it not being cold enough at low
level for significant snowfall, it almost appears that the cold pool
off Russia never really packs a punch in our direction. The 528DAM we
seem to be on the wrong side of it with the low in the North Sea not
helping. And then most of the run up to Christmas, although cold down
south, not cold enough to me :-(


Sorry to be a humbug, but I have a bad feeling about the whole thing!
Keith (Southend)

On 10 Dec, 08:27, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:
On 10 Dec, 08:14, Graham P Davis wrote:

Col wrote:

"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message
...
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

Have a look at T+384.

Christmas Day Arrmageddon for the SW

Armageddon outahere.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. *E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

I am really getting twitchy as to it not being cold enough at low
level for significant snowfall, it almost appears that the cold pool
off Russia never really packs a punch in our direction. The 528DAM we
seem to be on the wrong side of it with the low in the North Sea not
helping. And then most of the run up to Christmas, although cold down
south, not cold enough to me :-(

Sorry to be a humbug, but I have a bad feeling about the whole thing!
Keith (Southend)

eg..
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2163.png
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2403.png

Some hope for Tuesday and Wednesday next week:
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1203.png
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1443.png

Keith (Southend)

On Thu, 10 Dec 2009 00:35:38 -0800 (PST), Keith (Southend)G wrote in


Sorry to be a humbug, but I have a bad feeling about the whole thing!
Keith (Southend)

eg..
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2163.png
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn2403.png

In frontal situations like those, the 528 thickness is not particularly
useful, as the cold air is confined much closer to the surface.

--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 10/12/2009 09:12:22 GMT

On 9 Dec, 22:46, "Colin Youngs" wrote:
"Keith(Southend)" schreef in ...
:http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png

Keith, do you have any plans to post "Looking east, key cold indicators"
like last December ?http://groups.google.be/group/uk.sci...ead/thread/37d...

Colin Youngs
Brussels

Ah, just checked, I did add something on my spreadsheet which picked
out those locations in the list, and it's still there, so it shouldn't
cause my to much work. Update later tonight as we are wine testing at
the gym, a good way to keep fit LOL !

Keith (Southend)

On Dec 9, 10:37*pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png
--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

You know Keith, OMG was exactly the words I uttered to my computer
screen when I saw the 06z gfs (and OMG yet again, note, my laptop is
getting used to this exclamation!). It is highly unlikely to pan out
exactly like that but we have an overall pattern which has a high
confidence (75%+) of producing wintry weather in 10 days and the
model;s are in almost complete areement. OK, the 00z ECM shows
something a little different, but that's likely to be an outlier.
Compared to the charts of the last few years, this really is OMG
territory - and if I'm saying that, after my long record of decrying
the idiots who shout "snowfest" at every cold chart at T240+ on the
gfs, then I reckon it is more likely to happen than not.

PS Wine tasting in a gym. Nice idea! *))

On 10 Dec, 09:54, Dawlish wrote:
On Dec 9, 10:37*pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png
--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

You know Keith, OMG was exactly the words I uttered to my computer
screen when I saw the 06z gfs (and OMG yet again, note, my laptop is
getting used to this exclamation!). It is highly unlikely to pan out
exactly like that but we have an overall pattern which has a high
confidence (75%+) of producing wintry weather in 10 days and the
model;s are in almost complete areement. OK, the 00z ECM shows
something a little different, but that's likely to be an outlier.
Compared to the charts of the last few years, this really is OMG
territory - and if I'm saying that, after my long record of decrying
the idiots who shout "snowfest" at every cold chart at T240+ on the
gfs, then I reckon it is more likely to happen than not.

PS Wine tasting in a gym. Nice idea! *))

I'm sure things will look a lot rosier later :-) Hic !

Keith (Southend)

On Dec 10, 9:54*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Dec 9, 10:37*pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.png
--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

You know Keith, OMG was exactly the words I uttered to my computer
screen when I saw the 06z gfs (and OMG yet again, note, my laptop is
getting used to this exclamation!). It is highly unlikely to pan out
exactly like that but we have an overall pattern which has a high
confidence (75%+) of producing wintry weather in 10 days and the
model;s are in almost complete areement. **OK, the 00z ECM shows
something a little different, but that's likely to be an outlier.**
Compared to the charts of the last few years, this really is OMG
territory - and if I'm saying that, after my long record of decrying
the idiots who shout "snowfest" at every cold chart at T240+ on the
gfs, then I reckon it is more likely to happen than not.

PS Wine tasting in a gym. Nice idea! *))

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

As I thought, the EMS ensemble mean shows colder than what was
indicated by the 00z chart. The cold pattern is very well set to at
last 10 days and probably further, though it looks as if it *may* turn
drier over the Christmas period. (Very low confidence in that, mind,
but if it was to turn drier, many areas would have snow-covered
Christmas, as there would be little thawing with the low temperatures
over the snowfields). ........Did I really write that? Strange times
indeed!

On Dec 9, 11:01*pm, Mike Tullett wrote:
On Wed, 9 Dec 2009 22:47:50 -0000, Jon O'Rourke wrote in


Topped only by the GFS fantasy end of the world scenario a week later. Saved
here for posterity
http://www.metbrief.com/Images/endoworld.png

Pity William Hill don't take weather bets at night as I'm sure the odds
will be even lower tomorrow. *Many places were 6-1 today, down two points
from yesterday.

--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W *posted 09/12/2009 23:01:47 *GMT

Methinks you are thinking of betting in the pre-Internet age. William
Hill are online now you know and take bets 24/7!

9/2 at William Hill this morning, best price on Oddschecker is 11/2
with Skybet, for snow in London. No change from yesterday evening.

On Dec 10, 10:04*am, Dawlish wrote:

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

Useful link, that (for an impending easterly) - I wonder if the EC
know that their EPS output is on there...!

Richard