----- Original Message -----
From: "Dawlish"
Newsgroups: uk.sci.weather
Sent: Thursday, December 10, 2009 10:04 AM
Subject: OMG !

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

As I thought, the EMS ensemble mean shows colder than what was
indicated by the 00z chart.

My Dutch isn't very good but my reading of that output is different. If I've
read it right the only measure of temperature is the 2m plot for De Bilt and
the Op run is actually close to or often below the ENS mean out to day 10
(where the Op run ends).

What has changed on EC's 00Z Op run, and no doubt will continue to do so, is
the shape of the upper trough to the east of the UK and the subsequent
handling of any short wave developments in the North Sea. This has a
critical knock on effect on how far west any cold air in depth extends and
also how much precip. will affect the UK.

Jon.

On 10 Dec, 11:58, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:

My Dutch isn't very good but my reading of that output is different. If I've
read it right the only measure of temperature is the 2m plot for De Bilt and
the Op run is actually close to or often below the ENS mean out to day 10
(where the Op run ends).

Google translator does this:

Links: 6 hours per rainfall, wind speed 10 m height, temperature 2 m
height
Right: accumulated precipitation, winds, alternating: snow per 6 hours
(winter) or CAPE / storm (summer)

Richard

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
...
On 10 Dec, 11:58, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:

My Dutch isn't very good but my reading of that output is different. If
I've
read it right the only measure of temperature is the 2m plot for De Bilt
and
the Op run is actually close to or often below the ENS mean out to day 10
(where the Op run ends).

Google translator does this:

Links: 6 hours per rainfall, wind speed 10 m height, temperature 2 m
height
Right: accumulated precipitation, winds, alternating: snow per 6 hours
(winter) or CAPE / storm (summer)

Richard

Thanks. It's a pity they don't offer 850hPa temps. as well as 2m ones on
that plot.

Jon.

On Dec 10, 12:09*pm, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:
"Richard Dixon" wrote in message

...





On 10 Dec, 11:58, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:

My Dutch isn't very good but my reading of that output is different. If
I've
read it right the only measure of temperature is the 2m plot for De Bilt
and
the Op run is actually close to or often below the ENS mean out to day 10
(where the Op run ends).

Google translator does this:

Links: 6 hours per rainfall, wind speed 10 m height, temperature 2 m
height
Right: accumulated precipitation, winds, alternating: snow per 6 hours
(winter) or CAPE / storm (summer)

Richard

Thanks. It's a pity they don't offer 850hPa temps. as well as 2m ones on
that plot.

Jon.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

On Dec 10, 1:03*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Dec 10, 12:09*pm, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:



"Richard Dixon" wrote in message

...

On 10 Dec, 11:58, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:

My Dutch isn't very good but my reading of that output is different. If
I've
read it right the only measure of temperature is the 2m plot for De Bilt
and
the Op run is actually close to or often below the ENS mean out to day 10
(where the Op run ends).

Google translator does this:

Links: 6 hours per rainfall, wind speed 10 m height, temperature 2 m
height
Right: accumulated precipitation, winds, alternating: snow per 6 hours
(winter) or CAPE / storm (summer)

Richard

Thanks. It's a pity they don't offer 850hPa temps. as well as 2m ones on
that plot.

Jon.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Odd, I must have hit "send"!

"Richard Dixon" schreef in bericht
...

: On 10 Dec, 11:58, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:
: My Dutch isn't very good but my reading of that output is different. If
I've
: read it right the only measure of temperature is the 2m plot for De Bilt
and
: the Op run is actually close to or often below the ENS mean out to day
10
: (where the Op run ends).

: Google translator does this:
: Links: 6 hours per rainfall, wind speed 10 m height, temperature 2 m
: height
: Right: accumulated precipitation, winds, alternating: snow per 6 hours
: (winter) or CAPE / storm (summer)
: Richard

It says:

On the left: precipitation per 6 hours; wind speed 10 m height; temperature
2 m height

On the right: accumulated precipitation; wind gusts; alternating: snowfall
per 6 hours (winter) or CAPE / thunderstorm (summer)

At the bottom it says:

Explanation:
The green lines: the 50 perturbed (?) forecasts (T399/T255)
The red line: the operational T799 ECMWF forecast
The blue dotted line: the unperturbed (?) T399/T255 forecast
The brown dotted line: the ensemble mean

Do you say perturbed / unperturbed ?

I am retiring in 4 months' time. I wonder if Google Translator will be
appointed to take my place !

Colin Youngs
Brussels

In article ,
Colin Youngs writes:
I am retiring in 4 months' time. I wonder if Google Translator will be
appointed to take my place !

I hope that you have a long and happy retirement. Does it mean that you
will be returning to the UK?
--
John Hall "[It was] so steep that at intervals the street broke into steps,
like a person breaking into giggles or hiccups, and then resumed
its sober climb, until it had another fit of steps."
Ursula K Le Guin "The Beginning Place"

"John Hall" schreef in bericht

: In article ,
: Colin Youngs writes:
: I am retiring in 4 months' time. I wonder if Google Translator will be
: appointed to take my place !

: I hope that you have a long and happy retirement. Does it mean that you
: will be returning to the UK?

Thank you, John. So do I ! No, I will not be returning to the UK in the
immediate future. I may be away from home more often than at present
though - especially in the summer half of the year. All still a bit in the
future yet - I am retiring at the end of March.

Colin Youngs
Brussels