An useful piece here for those interested in ensemble based forecasting and
its applications http://www.ecmwf.int/about/information_leaflets/EPS.pdf

and for severe weather
http://www.ecmwf.int/about/informati...er-English.pdf

Jon.

On Thu, 10 Dec 2009 14:19:17 -0000, Jon O'Rourke wrote in


An useful piece here for those interested in ensemble based forecasting and
its applications http://www.ecmwf.int/about/information_leaflets/EPS.pdf

Thanks Jon. I was familiar with much of that including how the ECMWF
outperforms the rest. But I was wondering what would stop another
forecasting agency using the EC model. Are these models kept secret or
something similar?

--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 10/12/2009 15:14:55 GMT

"Mike Tullett" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 10 Dec 2009 14:19:17 -0000, Jon O'Rourke wrote in


An useful piece here for those interested in ensemble based forecasting
and
its applications http://www.ecmwf.int/about/information_leaflets/EPS.pdf

Thanks Jon. I was familiar with much of that including how the ECMWF
outperforms the rest. But I was wondering what would stop another
forecasting agency using the EC model. Are these models kept secret or
something similar?

Most of the EPS output isn't in the public domain, Mike. I would imagine
this was agreed by the member states who contribute to the operation
http://www.ecmwf.int/about/funding/index.html

Jon.

On Dec 10, 2:19*pm, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:
An useful piece here for those interested in ensemble based forecasting and
its applicationshttp://www.ecmwf.int/about/information_leaflets/EPS.pdf

and for severe weatherhttp://www.ecmwf.int/about/information_leaflets/Severe-weather-Englis...

Jon.

Really interesting, TY, but nothing about accuracy at 10 days, which
is disappointing, from a personal perspective.

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...

Really interesting, TY, but nothing about accuracy at 10 days, which
is disappointing, from a personal perspective.

Well, there's at least a graph in the performance section towards the end
which details the Ensemble Prediction System's performance out to day 15
compared to "other models". Also, the graph above shows the EPS improvement
over the last 15 years out to day 7.

Jon.

On Dec 10, 3:53*pm, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

Really interesting, TY, but nothing about accuracy at 10 days, which
is disappointing, from a personal perspective.

Well, there's at least a graph in the performance section towards the end
which details the Ensemble Prediction System's performance out to day 15
compared to "other models".
Jon.

Thanks Jon, I'd read the info at the side and missed the extent of the
scale on the bottom. There is at least that graph, which appears to
show an RPSS of 0.16. Not surprisingly, such a low RPSS (ranked
probability skill score) at 10 days would back what I've been saying
about the lack of accuracy in 10-day (+) forecasting very well. I'm
hopeful that the RPSS for 10-day forecasts will increase in the future!