Title says it all. I wouldn't be surprised now to see it last until 2010.
Deep cold sub 492DAM will become established over northern Russia and that
is going to take some shifting at this time of year. If anything models are
retrogressing further west now with the block re-establishing the long
waves, with us on the cold side. Of course our seas will keep the severe
(and dangerous) cold at bay as northerlies intrude from time to time but it
will stay cold enough for snow. We are in it for the long run now guys! A
long very cold spell but not a severe cold spell (by 1960s standards) I'd
say. You could yet get your ice day though Keith, but don't expect the sea
to freeze :-)

-----------------------------------------------------------
Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
-----------------------------------------------------------

On Thu, 10 Dec 2009 22:27:27 -0000, "Will Hand"
wrote:

You could yet get your ice day though Keith, but don't expect the sea
to freeze :-)

That's triggered a memory from 1963. I was working at Aberporth, near
Cardigan, then. The boss's secretary used to go down to the beach every
lunch time without fail for a swim. One day she returned and reported
ice on the rocks at sea level. She seemed to survive OK but I left in
February '63 so who knows...
--
Alan White
Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent.
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, overlooking Lochs Long and Goil in Argyll, Scotland.
Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/weather

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Title says it all. I wouldn't be surprised now to see it last until 2010.
Deep cold sub 492DAM will become established over northern Russia and that
is going to take some shifting at this time of year. If anything models
are retrogressing further west now with the block re-establishing the long
waves, with us on the cold side. Of course our seas will keep the severe
(and dangerous) cold at bay as northerlies intrude from time to time but
it will stay cold enough for snow. We are in it for the long run now guys!
A long very cold spell but not a severe cold spell (by 1960s standards)
I'd say. You could yet get your ice day though Keith, but don't expect the
sea to freeze :-)

-----------------------------------------------------------
Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
-----------------------------------------------------------


I see the GFS 18Z has refused to yield and actually looks a tad better for
us cold, bitter and twisted folk.

Sorry make that quaintly nostalgic.

Will Hand wrote:
Title says it all. I wouldn't be surprised now to see it last until 2010.
Deep cold sub 492DAM will become established over northern Russia and
that is going to take some shifting at this time of year. If anything
models are retrogressing further west now with the block re-establishing
the long waves, with us on the cold side. Of course our seas will keep
the severe (and dangerous) cold at bay as northerlies intrude from time
to time but it will stay cold enough for snow. We are in it for the long
run now guys! A long very cold spell but not a severe cold spell (by
1960s standards) I'd say. You could yet get your ice day though Keith,
but don't expect the sea to freeze :-)

-----------------------------------------------------------
Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
-----------------------------------------------------------



Mmm... Slush. Thanks for that Will !

--
Chris
Swaffham, Norfolk

On Dec 10, 10:50*pm, Chris Smith wrote:
Will Hand wrote:
Title says it all. I wouldn't be surprised now to see it last until 2010.

"Len Wood" wrote in message
...
On Dec 10, 10:50 pm, Chris Smith wrote:
Will Hand wrote:
Title says it all. I wouldn't be surprised now to see it last until
2010.
Deep cold sub 492DAM will become established over northern Russia and
that is going to take some shifting at this time of year. If anything
models are retrogressing further west now with the block re-establishing
the long waves, with us on the cold side. Of course our seas will keep
the severe (and dangerous) cold at bay as northerlies intrude from time
to time but it will stay cold enough for snow. We are in it for the long
run now guys! A long very cold spell but not a severe cold spell (by
1960s standards) I'd say. You could yet get your ice day though Keith,
but don't expect the sea to freeze :-)

-----------------------------------------------------------
Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Mmm... Slush. Thanks for that Will !

--
Chris
Swaffham, Norfolk- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

The atmosphere will wreak its revenge on those who think they can
model its behaviour in detail beyond 5 to 7 days.
Ensembles deal ably with the dodgy input data, but what about the
physics, the finite differencing ...? Different models give different
results sometimes because their are aspects of the physics in them
that differ in certain weather situations.
All these do their tweaking and can cause divergence from reality.
Flip- flops?

Regime change yes. But detail? No way at the moment, if ever.

Hope I am not being too negative on this ng. I just feel a dose of
reality does n't go amiss sometimes.

Len Wood
Wembury, SW Devon
---------------------------
I suspect most people would broadly agree with that.
Dave

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
...

"Len Wood" wrote in message
...
On Dec 10, 10:50 pm, Chris Smith wrote:
Will Hand wrote:
Title says it all. I wouldn't be surprised now to see it last until
2010.
Deep cold sub 492DAM will become established over northern Russia and
that is going to take some shifting at this time of year. If anything
models are retrogressing further west now with the block
re-establishing
the long waves, with us on the cold side. Of course our seas will keep
the severe (and dangerous) cold at bay as northerlies intrude from time
to time but it will stay cold enough for snow. We are in it for the
long
run now guys! A long very cold spell but not a severe cold spell (by
1960s standards) I'd say. You could yet get your ice day though Keith,
but don't expect the sea to freeze :-)

-----------------------------------------------------------
Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Mmm... Slush. Thanks for that Will !

--
Chris
Swaffham, Norfolk- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

The atmosphere will wreak its revenge on those who think they can
model its behaviour in detail beyond 5 to 7 days.
Ensembles deal ably with the dodgy input data, but what about the
physics, the finite differencing ...? Different models give different
results sometimes because their are aspects of the physics in them
that differ in certain weather situations.
All these do their tweaking and can cause divergence from reality.
Flip- flops?

Regime change yes. But detail? No way at the moment, if ever.

Hope I am not being too negative on this ng. I just feel a dose of
reality does n't go amiss sometimes.

Len Wood
Wembury, SW Devon
---------------------------
I suspect most people would broadly agree with that.
Dave


Dave don't you understand ? Its happening in our heads, in our imaginations,
why if yuo believe and think hard enough and just click your
heels........... ;-)

Actually very cold here tonight in SE London

On 10 Dec, 22:27, "Will Hand" wrote:
Title says it all. I wouldn't be surprised now to see it last until 2010.
Deep cold sub 492DAM will become established over northern Russia and that
is going to take some shifting at this time of year. If anything models are
retrogressing further west now with the block re-establishing the long
waves, with us on the cold side. Of course our seas will keep the severe
(and dangerous) cold at bay as northerlies intrude from time to time but it
will stay cold enough for snow. We are in it for the long run now guys! A
long very cold spell but not a severe cold spell (by 1960s standards) I'd
say. You could yet get your ice day though Keith, but don't expect the sea
to freeze :-)

-----------------------------------------------------------
Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Thanks Will.

Must admit I'm not looking at the GFS models to closely atm, although
the generally cold theme continues, but they don't seem to bring in
any of the deep cold. I guess I won't be convinced until it is
actually cold enough and then of course if there is any snow then
clear nights and given the time of year, we will then produce our own
cold pool. But we're not there yet.

Keith (Southend)

On Dec 11, 12:02*am, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:
"Len Wood" wrote in message

...
On Dec 10, 10:50 pm, Chris Smith wrote:





Will Hand wrote:
Title says it all. I wouldn't be surprised now to see it last until
2010.
Deep cold sub 492DAM will become established over northern Russia and
that is going to take some shifting at this time of year. If anything
models are retrogressing further west now with the block re-establishing
the long waves, with us on the cold side. Of course our seas will keep
the severe (and dangerous) cold at bay as northerlies intrude from time
to time but it will stay cold enough for snow. We are in it for the long
run now guys! A long very cold spell but not a severe cold spell (by
1960s standards) I'd say. You could yet get your ice day though Keith,
but don't expect the sea to freeze :-)

-----------------------------------------------------------
Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Mmm... Slush. Thanks for that Will !

--
Chris
Swaffham, Norfolk- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

The atmosphere will wreak its revenge on those who think they can
model its behaviour in detail beyond 5 to 7 days.
Ensembles deal ably with the dodgy input data, but what about the
physics, the finite differencing ...? Different models give different
results sometimes because their are aspects of the physics in them
that differ in certain weather situations.
All these do their tweaking and can cause divergence from reality.
Flip- flops?

Regime change yes. But detail? No way at the moment, if ever.

Hope I am not being too negative on this ng. I just feel a dose of
reality does n't go amiss sometimes.

Len Wood
Wembury, SW Devon
---------------------------
I suspect most people would broadly agree with that.
Dave- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

It's not "negativity" Len. Don't worry about that. That term implies
that to suggest something other than cold in the outlook is tantamount
to insurrection and such suggesters have been, figuratively, shot at
dawn before. That word comes up so often on forums (never liked the
latin plural, sorry) and you can feel collective dislike of the
suggester howling across the ether. Fortunately, it's a word seldom
used on here and that is a compliment to everyone! This is by far the
most balanced and reasonable assessment of possible colder conditions
in any Internet group that I've ever been involved with - and with my
history I really should know on that one!

The ECM is beginning to paint a slightly different picture. It's not
exactly the same, consistent, picture on the 00z, as it was on the two
previous runs, but it is still showing heights to our NW falling and
the *possibility* of an Atlantic incursion. However, right out at
T240, pressure to our north is seen to rise again. The gfs on the
other hand is having none of it and it keeps Will's solution of
continuing cold beyond Christmas (that's a bit at odds with the
"Christmas blizzards moving north with a thaw behind" from yesterday,
Will, but actually both, or either, of those could occur! Detail at
that range is truly impossible, IMO). To T144, all models, including
the ECM show the same and parts of lowland England really should see
some pre-Christmas snow next week. UKMO, GEM, ECM and the gfs show the
same cold easterly/NE set-up with all sorts of disturbance
possibilities. NOGAPS doesn't, but it is out on a limb.

It's at T168 where the ECM cuts the easterly and that's 3 consecutive
runs on which it has done that, though, as I said, it builds heights
to the far north again at T240 on the 00z.

I'm just completely fascinated how the models are handling this set-
up. The gfs has stuck to its guns without waver for 5 days now,
showing the same cold and snowy E/NE scenario at T240 each day. It
will be interesting to see whether the ECM comes back into line.

"Keith (Southend)G" wrote in message
...
On 10 Dec, 22:27, "Will Hand" wrote:
Title says it all. I wouldn't be surprised now to see it last until 2010.
Deep cold sub 492DAM will become established over northern Russia and
that
is going to take some shifting at this time of year. If anything models
are
retrogressing further west now with the block re-establishing the long
waves, with us on the cold side. Of course our seas will keep the severe
(and dangerous) cold at bay as northerlies intrude from time to time but
it
will stay cold enough for snow. We are in it for the long run now guys! A
long very cold spell but not a severe cold spell (by 1960s standards) I'd
say. You could yet get your ice day though Keith, but don't expect the
sea
to freeze :-)

-----------------------------------------------------------
Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Thanks Will.

Must admit I'm not looking at the GFS models to closely atm, although
the generally cold theme continues, but they don't seem to bring in
any of the deep cold. I guess I won't be convinced until it is
actually cold enough and then of course if there is any snow then
clear nights and given the time of year, we will then produce our own
cold pool. But we're not there yet.

Keith (Southend)

Indeed, "still all to play for" as they say in that other place :-)

Will
--