Tonights FAX at T120 and the gfs 18z are just peaches for snow down
the eastern side of Britain, at least. That FAX chart illustrates why
I left my last comment on the previous T120 fax as an ellipsis!!!

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
Tonights FAX at T120 and the gfs 18z are just peaches for snow down
the eastern side of Britain, at least. That FAX chart illustrates why
I left my last comment on the previous T120 fax as an ellipsis!!!

Yes but the Global Forecasting system goes very wrong -or right depending on
your politics, in the later stages and that means CHRISTMAS DAY.

On Dec 11, 10:30*pm, Dawlish wrote:
Tonights FAX at T120 and the gfs 18z are just peaches for snow down
the eastern side of Britain, at least. That FAX chart illustrates why
I left my last comment on the previous T120 fax as an ellipsis!!!

................but if you are of a nervous, or a continued cold,
disposition and have a bet on for snow on Christmas day, don't click
on this link!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3362.png

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Dec 11, 10:30 pm, Dawlish wrote:
Tonights FAX at T120 and the gfs 18z are just peaches for snow down
the eastern side of Britain, at least. That FAX chart illustrates why
I left my last comment on the previous T120 fax as an ellipsis!!!

................but if you are of a nervous, or a continued cold,
disposition and have a bet on for snow on Christmas day, don't click
on this link!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3362.png
==========

Luvvly and warm :-)

Will
--

Oh if only that were true it would be the best xmas pressie of all!

Robbie

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Dec 11, 10:30 pm, Dawlish wrote:
Tonights FAX at T120 and the gfs 18z are just peaches for snow down
the eastern side of Britain, at least. That FAX chart illustrates why
I left my last comment on the previous T120 fax as an ellipsis!!!

...............but if you are of a nervous, or a continued cold,
disposition and have a bet on for snow on Christmas day, don't click
on this link!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3362.png
==========

Luvvly and warm :-)

Will
--

In article ,
Will Hand writes:
Leave the bitterness to the weather, I am.
Paul, there is nothing I have seen in models today that would make that
wrong, good luck to you!
My only concern is that the forecast may not have been snowy or cold
enough!!! Just my opinion of course.

I note that Paul Bartlett (an extremely experienced forecaster) agrees
with you too.
snip

Since PB tends to be extremely conservative in his forecasts, I view
that as highly significant.
--
John Hall "[It was] so steep that at intervals the street broke into steps,
like a person breaking into giggles or hiccups, and then resumed
its sober climb, until it had another fit of steps."
Ursula K Le Guin "The Beginning Place"

Second consecutive gfs with a very different longer-term solution to
the extended cold. A long way off well beyond T240 and so it actually
means nothing so far........... but it's sitting in a little milder
corner in the back of my mind.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3602.png

On the other hand, if this gfs chart at 10 days is still there on the
18z and is backed by the ECM 12z...........I might actually be
forecasting a pre-Christmas armageddon. Those cold uppers over the UK
and that low pressure promise snow, the like of which we haven't seen
for a long time. Not enough consistency to forecast it yet, but what
amazing charts for 3 days before Christmas. It's just spellbinding
watching them. I confess to being completely flabberghasted by them.

You want to see the country grind to a halt with our major cities
under 6" of snow (OK, 2cm would do, I know) look at this chart at
T240:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3602.png
(I think that's still the 27th - but a few days before Paul and the GFS
does paint an interesting scenario - even if it is only lines on a
chart.


What is also fascinating is the Greenland high develops to 1070 by the
end of the week, followed by a fairly swift collapse though. Interesting
days for all


Cheers

James
--
James Brown

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Only if you have it on!

Just joking :-)

Will
--------------------
I've been out for a bit - was there some criticism I missed ? I have been
sceptical like Lawrence but I always am about rare weather events. Still
looking like a good forecast to me Will. Don't agree about Joe B though. He
forecast a mild December just a week or so ago and a colder spell around
Christmas. So that's about two weeks out from one week out!
Dave

On Dec 12, 5:21*pm, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:
"Will Hand" wrote in message

... Only if you have it on!

Just joking :-)

Will

--------------------
I've been out for a bit - was there some criticism I missed ? I have been
sceptical like Lawrence but I always am about rare weather events. Still
looking like a good forecast to me Will. Don't agree about Joe B though. He
forecast a mild December just a week or so ago and a colder spell around
Christmas. So that's about two weeks out from one week out!
Dave

120/144 ECM should cheer the worriers up!

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...test!chart.gif

..........and maybe give Philip some snow!

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Dec 12, 5:21 pm, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:
"Will Hand" wrote in message

... Only if you have it on!

Just joking :-)

Will

--------------------
I've been out for a bit - was there some criticism I missed ? I have been
sceptical like Lawrence but I always am about rare weather events. Still
looking like a good forecast to me Will. Don't agree about Joe B though.
He
forecast a mild December just a week or so ago and a colder spell around
Christmas. So that's about two weeks out from one week out!
Dave

120/144 ECM should cheer the worriers up!

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...test!chart.gif

..........and maybe give Philip some snow!

And the 18Z GFS should enhance the scepticism