........time slip!

Thursday is beginning to look extremely interesting. Something Will
talked about some time ago and he'll be able to give more on the
dynamics that I can. If he's got any sense he'll be walking the moors
on such a day as this.

Both the gfs and the ECM have a low moving southwards through the
North Sea on Wed/Thurs. Ahead of it, precipitation may well be rain,
though the fax charts show a series of disturbances running down the
eastern side of Britain from Tuesday onwards which are likely to
produce some lowland wintriness and hill snow from time to time
through the week. Thursday however, could hold a key to some heavier
snow on the back edge of that low as colder air is dragged in from the
continent and down from above, with a distribution which may include
areas further to the west, as well as the east, if the ECM is to be
believed.

An area of convergence through the English Channel tonight and sub 528
dam air may produce some sleety stuff in Kent, but it could be just
cold rain. Lamp post watch for that one!

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
.......time slip!

Thursday is beginning to look extremely interesting. Something Will
talked about some time ago and he'll be able to give more on the
dynamics that I can. If he's got any sense he'll be walking the moors
on such a day as this.

Both the gfs and the ECM have a low moving southwards through the
North Sea on Wed/Thurs. Ahead of it, precipitation may well be rain,
though the fax charts show a series of disturbances running down the
eastern side of Britain from Tuesday onwards which are likely to
produce some lowland wintriness and hill snow from time to time
through the week. Thursday however, could hold a key to some heavier
snow on the back edge of that low as colder air is dragged in from the
continent and down from above, with a distribution which may include
areas further to the west, as well as the east, if the ECM is to be
believed.

An area of convergence through the English Channel tonight and sub 528
dam air may produce some sleety stuff in Kent, but it could be just
cold rain. Lamp post watch for that one!

Certainly interesting times, Paul!

The overall pattern seems to be set but specifics hard to nail down at
anything more than T+24.
My work colleagues have been asking me about the possibility of snow - my
reply has been along the lines that the basic building blocks are in place,
but detail hard to nail down much in advance.
Personally, down here I'm not expecting much (December 81 didnt really
produce much more than a patchy covering of snow, some very cold nights and
a messy breakdown on this very day that month, then mild till early Jan 82)
but you never know!

Jim, Bournemouth

--
Bournemouth Weather readings online: http://www.g0ofe.com/weather

On Dec 13, 12:09*pm, "Jim Smith" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...





.......time slip!

Thursday is beginning to look extremely interesting. Something Will
talked about some time ago and he'll be able to give more on the
dynamics that I can. If he's got any sense he'll be walking the moors
on such a day as this.

Both the gfs and the ECM have a low moving southwards through the
North Sea on Wed/Thurs. Ahead of it, precipitation may well be rain,
though the fax charts show a series of disturbances running down the
eastern side of Britain from Tuesday onwards which are likely to
produce some lowland wintriness and hill snow from time to time
through the week. Thursday however, could hold a key to some heavier
snow on the back edge of that low as colder air is dragged in from the
continent and down from above, with a distribution which may include
areas further to the west, as well as the east, if the ECM is to be
believed.

An area of convergence through the English Channel tonight and sub 528
dam air may produce some sleety stuff in Kent, but it could be just
cold rain. Lamp post watch for that one!

Certainly interesting times, Paul!

The overall pattern seems to be set but specifics hard to nail down at
anything more than T+24.
My work colleagues have been asking me about the possibility of snow - my
reply has been along the lines that the basic building blocks are in place,
but detail hard to nail down much in advance.
Personally, down here I'm not expecting much (December 81 didnt really
produce much more than a patchy covering of snow, some very cold nights and
a messy breakdown on this very day that month, then mild till early Jan 82)
but you never know!

Jim, Bournemouth

--
Bournemouth Weather readings online:http://www.g0ofe.com/weather- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

The London ens tell a fair old story. Heavy snow in a breakdown on the
23rd and a fast thaw afterwards. We'll see, but that is some of the
best agreement out to 10 days that I've seen for a long time.

On Dec 13, 12:09*pm, "Jim Smith" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...



.......time slip!

Thursday is beginning to look extremely interesting. Something Will
talked about some time ago and he'll be able to give more on the
dynamics that I can. If he's got any sense he'll be walking the moors
on such a day as this.

Both the gfs and the ECM have a low moving southwards through the
North Sea on Wed/Thurs. Ahead of it, precipitation may well be rain,
though the fax charts show a series of disturbances running down the
eastern side of Britain from Tuesday onwards which are likely to
produce some lowland wintriness and hill snow from time to time
through the week. Thursday however, could hold a key to some heavier
snow on the back edge of that low as colder air is dragged in from the
continent and down from above, with a distribution which may include
areas further to the west, as well as the east, if the ECM is to be
believed.

An area of convergence through the English Channel tonight and sub 528
dam air may produce some sleety stuff in Kent, but it could be just
cold rain. Lamp post watch for that one!

Certainly interesting times, Paul!

The overall pattern seems to be set but specifics hard to nail down at
anything more than T+24.
My work colleagues have been asking me about the possibility of snow - my
reply has been along the lines that the basic building blocks are in place,
but detail hard to nail down much in advance.
Personally, down here I'm not expecting much (December 81 didnt really
produce much more than a patchy covering of snow, some very cold nights and
a messy breakdown on this very day that month, then mild till early Jan 82)
but you never know!

Jim, Bournemouth

There must have been quite a gradient over a small area in Dec 81, as
I remember it being cold until around the solstice in West Sussex,
though I do remember a wind storm temporarily turning it mild sometime
about now, but only for a day or two. My memory's a bit vague TBH but
I do remember one day of heavy snow in the early/mid month, and there
being very icy (but not particularly thick) snow on the ground around
Dec 21.

I also remember heavy snow sometime early in January - that seemed to
stick around for about 2 weeks and just thaw very gradually without
any sudden mild incursion as such.


Nick

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
.......time slip!

Thursday is beginning to look extremely interesting. Something Will
talked about some time ago and he'll be able to give more on the
dynamics that I can. If he's got any sense he'll be walking the moors
on such a day as this.


Hi Paul. I was indeed. Low cloud at first but then cleared with superb
visibility and sunny intervals.
Chilly with temperatures 2C-4C and F4 occ 5 NE wind. Did a nice 10 mile
circuit, Warren House Inn - Kes Tor - Sittaford - White Ridge and back.
Noticeable wind chill above 500m asl but not too bad as I was "wrapped up
warm". Amazingly mild in comparison here at Haytor with 6C, presumably more
sun!

OK, I would say that both Weds and Thurs are potentially snowy, though it
will come in bands and the detail is going to very difficult to pin down
until very near the time. The main driver is a weak NNE jet coming into
Scotland with pressure falls at left exit. These helped by Norway lee effect
in the easterly.

I note there has been some discussion about Xmas. My take on it is that it
is going to be a thoroughly messy and potentially severe weather situation
as a low deepens in mid-Atlantic thrusting warm air energy northwards. By
then the UK will be very cold and we will have the usual problem of warm air
moving slowly north with a gale force E - SEly ahead with potential for
blizzards followed by a thaw. Doubt as to how far north it will get as well
with a potential serious snow situation in northern England perhaps. OTOH it
could all happen down in SW too far ahead yet but I would say that the
signal for something like that is emerging. What is required to stop the
Atlantic breaking through is a build of pressure from the east towards
Scandinavia, as you never get a block with low pressure there. If such
happens then we could be facing a severe winter!

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
--