Still ever so interesting for Thursday (and at other times during this
week - and possibly, especially, for Saturday!). Sub 528 dam air will
have dug in by then and the showers are likely to be of snow, rather
than the wintry mix which will be seen especially in the east but
potentially further west, at times, too.
So very interesting!

On Dec 14, 10:21*am, Dawlish wrote:
Still ever so interesting for Thursday (and at other times during this
week - and possibly, especially, for Saturday!). Sub 528 dam air will
have dug in by then and the showers are likely to be of snow, rather
than the wintry mix which will be seen especially in the east but
potentially further west, at times, too.
So very interesting!

And also very complex! I publish a 9 day forecast for Rutland at
1900. As the left exit feature (300Mb) slips south it looks like
another similar feature may follow southwest, and still there is
further development in the positive vorticity side of the jet at T=120
over the Norwegian Sea.. After that even the broader scale has badly
wobbled over the last two days, blow trying to forecast out to T=240 -
I reckon best wait till we have a little more ensemble/model cohesion.
Cheers Paul 400ft amsl with nowt but fen and water to the east.

On Dec 14, 7:56*pm, Paul Bartlett wrote:
On Dec 14, 10:21*am, Dawlish wrote:

Still ever so interesting for Thursday (and at other times during this
week - and possibly, especially, for Saturday!). Sub 528 dam air will
have dug in by then and the showers are likely to be of snow, rather
than the wintry mix which will be seen especially in the east but
potentially further west, at times, too.
So very interesting!

*After that even the broader scale has badly
wobbled over the last two days, blow trying to forecast out to T=240 -
I reckon best wait till we have a little more ensemble/model cohesion.
Cheers Paul 400ft amsl with nowt but fen and water to the east.

Ooooo very true. Nowhere near enough consistency in one model, or
agreement with others at T240. The last time I saw enough consistency,
or agreement, was 6 days ago; hence my forecast for the 19th! Since
then, T240 has been endlessly fascinating, but completely
inconsistent. On Christmas Eve, as it stands today, a breakdown is a
little less likely than the cold persisting (London ens below), but
you pays your money and you takes your chance, both with agreement,
consistency and the ens!

http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/...&ville=Londres

Paul Bartlett wrote:


And also very complex! I publish a 9 day forecast for Rutland at
1900. As the left exit feature (300Mb) slips south it looks like
another similar feature may follow southwest, and still there is
further development in the positive vorticity side of the jet at T=120
over the Norwegian Sea.. After that even the broader scale has badly
wobbled over the last two days, blow trying to forecast out to T=240 -
I reckon best wait till we have a little more ensemble/model cohesion.
Cheers Paul 400ft amsl with nowt but fen and water to the east.

You may get some snow tomorrow Paul:
From the 20Z AIRMET:
NR LOW (FRONTAL ZONE): GEN BKN/OVC STSC WITH OCNL BKN AC AND
RADZ/BR. WITHIN THIS ZONE RISK OF RASN AND -SN PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE FAR E OF ZONE, SOME SLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS
CAMBRIDGESHIRE AND LINCOLNSHIRE AND INTO THE E MIDLANDS. AND AGAIN
DURING THE EVENING IN THE W MIDLANDS. MOD TO POOR VIS, BECMG VERY
POOR LATER IN SN.

Phil