Home |
Search |
Today's Posts |
![]() |
|
uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
Reply |
|
LinkBack | Thread Tools | Display Modes |
#1
![]() |
|||
|
|||
![]()
Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Sunday.
Issued 0517, 23rd December 2009. Next week will start with southerlies and low pressure close by. It's likely low pressure will cross the UK, bringing rain for most, followed by cooler NE'lies in its wake. Beyond that there are signs of high pressure building to the west as the jet roars northwards, bringing a shortlived colder spell. Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS Low pressure lies to the east of Scotland, leading to westerlies and SW'lies for most. Tomorrow a col covers the UK, followed by northerlies early on Christmas Day as low pressure fills over France. Boxing Day sees SW'lies for all with a low to the north. T+120 synopsis http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn12015.png / http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jetstream chart shows a strong jet heading ENE'wards over the Atlantic, with a secondary jet over the UK also heading ENE'wards. At the 500hPa level there's a broad westerly flow over the UK, while ECM has upper SW'lies with a low to the WNW. MetO has upper westerlies as per GFS, as does GEM. JMA shows upper westerlies too. At the surface, GFS brings southerlies for England and Wales with a col over Scotland and Northern Ireland. ECM has SW'lies from a low to the NW, while MetO places a low east of Scotland with a mixture of westerlies and SW'lies as a result. GEM has SW'lies and a low over northern Scotland, while JMA has a low over the North Sea with northerlies for Scotland and WSW'lies elsewhere. Evolution to T+168 ECM shows low pressure NW of Scotland on day 6, with southerlies and SW'lies over the UK. NE'lies affect the UK on day 7 as the low moves SE'wards. GFS brings a col for most on day 6, albeit with strong and cold westerlies for northern Scotland. On dya 7 a low deepens over Benelux and strong NE'lies and northerlies cover the UK. Looking further afield ECM shows light northerlies on day 8 as low pressure fills to the SE. Day 9 sees light NNW'lies and northerlies as a ridge moves SE'wards, followed by WNW'lies on day 10 as the ridge moves away to the SE. GFS also shows northerlies on day 8, with a low over Biscay and a high to the west. The high builds on day 9, drawing Atlantic air over the UK from the NW. By day 10 the high "topples" over the UK, with NW'lies for England and Wales and SW'lies elsewhere. Ensemble analysis (http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res) The ensembles show increasinly mild weather this coming week, with a high chance of a short cold spell as pressure builds to the west for the New Year. |
Reply |
Thread Tools | Search this Thread |
Display Modes | |
|
|
![]() |
||||
Thread | Forum | |||
Today's model interpretation (10/07/03) | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
Today's model interpretation (9/07/03) | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
Today's model interpretation (8/7/03) | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
Today's model interpretation (7/6/03) | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) | |||
Today's model interpretation (5/07/03) | uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) |