12z run does seem to push the low a little further south introducing a
more definite north easterly across the SE, the small deepish low off SW
Ireland has never looked right to me, but GFS has been hinting this for
a couple of days now. Apart from the 1st to the 3rd the old Thickness is
still looking a bit marginal for my liking. Awaiting the ECMWF 12z run.
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

On 29 Dec, 17:37, "Keith(Southend)" wrote:
12z run does seem to push the low a little further south introducing a
more definite north easterly across the SE, the small deepish low off SW
Ireland has never looked right to me, but GFS has been hinting this for
a couple of days now. Apart from the 1st to the 3rd the old Thickness is
still looking a bit marginal for my liking. Awaiting the ECMWF 12z run.
--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Last night's 18Z run seemed to hint that the cold air will never be
far away out to the end of the run. Given experience of these
situations I wonder how many on here would agree that whatever happens
we are looking at at least two weeks of notably cold weather with
frequent snowfall.

"Scott W" wrote in message
...
On 29 Dec, 17:37, "Keith(Southend)" wrote:
12z run does seem to push the low a little further south introducing a
more definite north easterly across the SE, the small deepish low off SW
Ireland has never looked right to me, but GFS has been hinting this for
a couple of days now. Apart from the 1st to the 3rd the old Thickness is
still looking a bit marginal for my liking. Awaiting the ECMWF 12z run.
--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Last night's 18Z run seemed to hint that the cold air will never be
far away out to the end of the run. Given experience of these
situations I wonder how many on here would agree that whatever happens
we are looking at at least two weeks of notably cold weather with
frequent snowfall.

I agree Scott. This is looking like it is going to be a memorable cold
winter. It already is in Aberfeldy!
As for snow at end of year, I reckon New years Eve will see snow falling in
London on the revellers and on Keith too. Rain turning to snow elsewhere
from the north during Wednesday and Thursday as pressure falls run along the
Channel and very cold air creeps south, undercutting. We in Dartmoor are in
the mixing zone at present and I expect my rain to turn to snow during
tomorrow (Weds) and certainly by Thursday.

Festive cheers,

Will
--

Scott W wrote:
On 29 Dec, 17:37, "Keith(Southend)" wrote:
12z run does seem to push the low a little further south introducing a
more definite north easterly across the SE, the small deepish low off SW
Ireland has never looked right to me, but GFS has been hinting this for
a couple of days now. Apart from the 1st to the 3rd the old Thickness is
still looking a bit marginal for my liking. Awaiting the ECMWF 12z run.
--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Last night's 18Z run seemed to hint that the cold air will never be
far away out to the end of the run. Given experience of these
situations I wonder how many on here would agree that whatever happens
we are looking at at least two weeks of notably cold weather with
frequent snowfall.

GFS seems quite keen on a big anticyclone on it's later days, which
appears to me could still be quite cold for the east in those SE winds,
but again anythings up for grabs at that range atm.

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Keith(Southend) wrote:
Scott W wrote:
On 29 Dec, 17:37, "Keith(Southend)" wrote:
12z run does seem to push the low a little further south introducing a
more definite north easterly across the SE, the small deepish low off SW
Ireland has never looked right to me, but GFS has been hinting this for
a couple of days now. Apart from the 1st to the 3rd the old Thickness is
still looking a bit marginal for my liking. Awaiting the ECMWF 12z run.
--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Last night's 18Z run seemed to hint that the cold air will never be
far away out to the end of the run. Given experience of these
situations I wonder how many on here would agree that whatever happens
we are looking at at least two weeks of notably cold weather with
frequent snowfall.

GFS seems quite keen on a big anticyclone on it's later days, which
appears to me could still be quite cold for the east in those SE winds,
but again anythings up for grabs at that range atm.


Surprised at the Met Office warning so early, I wouldn't have expected
any major snow for at least 24 hours?

snip
29/13:59: Heavy Snow - London & South East England

FLASH Warning of Heavy Snow for London & South East England valid from
1600 Tue 29 Dec to 0300 Wed 30 Dec

Also
29/13:59: Heavy Snow - East of England

FLASH Warning of Heavy Snow for East of England valid from 1600 Tue 29
Dec to 0300 Wed 30 Dec
snip
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

In message , "Keith(Southend)"
writes
Scott W wrote:
On 29 Dec, 17:37, "Keith(Southend)" wrote:
12z run does seem to push the low a little further south introducing a
more definite north easterly across the SE, the small deepish low off SW
Ireland has never looked right to me, but GFS has been hinting this for
a couple of days now. Apart from the 1st to the 3rd the old Thickness is
still looking a bit marginal for my liking. Awaiting the ECMWF 12z run.
--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net
Last night's 18Z run seemed to hint that the cold air will never be
far away out to the end of the run. Given experience of these
situations I wonder how many on here would agree that whatever happens
we are looking at at least two weeks of notably cold weather with
frequent snowfall.

GFS seems quite keen on a big anticyclone on it's later days, which
appears to me could still be quite cold for the east in those SE winds,
but again anythings up for grabs at that range atm.

Towards the end of the week GFS is looking to put temperatures very low
over the northern Germany and the Alps. I wonder whether this is GFS
being its usual self? If it's going to turn out as per the run then the
easterlies and north-easterlies are going to be very "interesting".
--
Tim

In article ,
"Keith(Southend)" writes:
Surprised at the Met Office warning so early, I wouldn't have expected
any major snow for at least 24 hours?

snip
29/13:59: Heavy Snow - London & South East England

FLASH Warning of Heavy Snow for London & South East England valid from
1600 Tue 29 Dec to 0300 Wed 30 Dec

Only for the usual suspects of Bucks and Oxon, though (which
meteorologically I think shouldn't really be included with the SE). And
on the station reports from 1700 (I think it was), I noticed that it was
indeed snowing in High Wycombe.
--
John Hall "[It was] so steep that at intervals the street broke into steps,
like a person breaking into giggles or hiccups, and then resumed
its sober climb, until it had another fit of steps."
Ursula K Le Guin "The Beginning Place"

On 29 Dec, 19:23, John Hall wrote:
In article ,

*"Keith(Southend)" writes:
Surprised at the Met Office warning so early, I wouldn't have expected
any major snow for at least 24 hours?

snip
29/13:59: Heavy Snow - London & South East England

FLASH Warning of Heavy Snow for London & South East England valid from
1600 Tue 29 Dec to 0300 Wed 30 Dec

Only for the usual suspects of Bucks and Oxon, though (which
meteorologically I think shouldn't really be included with the SE). And
on the station reports from 1700 (I think it was), I noticed that it was
indeed snowing in High Wycombe.
--
John Hall *"[It was] so steep that at intervals the street broke into steps,
* * * * * * like a person breaking into giggles or hiccups, and then resumed
* * * * * * its sober climb, until it had another fit of steps."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Ursula K Le Guin "The Beginning Place"

At a height of 190m I'm not surprised that it has turned to snow in
High Wycombe. Wasn't that where shoppers were stranded last Monday
night?

In article ,
"Keith(Southend)" writes:
12z run does seem to push the low a little further south introducing a
more definite north easterly across the SE, the small deepish low off
SW Ireland has never looked right to me, but GFS has been hinting this
for a couple of days now. Apart from the 1st to the 3rd the old
Thickness is still looking a bit marginal for my liking. Awaiting the
ECMWF 12z run.

Both the GFS and ECMWF 12Z operational runs suggest that the south might
well have snow next Tuesday (which I think is the 5th).
--
John Hall "[It was] so steep that at intervals the street broke into steps,
like a person breaking into giggles or hiccups, and then resumed
its sober climb, until it had another fit of steps."
Ursula K Le Guin "The Beginning Place"