Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Tuesday.
Issued 0525, New Year's Day 2009.

Northerlies will affect the UK for the latter half of the working week,
bringing widespread frosts inland and snow showers for coastal areas exposed
to the wind. For the weekend, there's a sharp divide, with GFS maintaining
cold conditions and ECM bringing rain and much milder temperatures for all.

**Happy New Year to all readers!**

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
Northerlies and NNE'lies cover the UK, which lies between a large high near
Greenland and a complex low over southern Europe. Tomorrow a small low moves
over the North Sea, backing the winds NW'ly over the UK. The low fills to
the east on Sunday, with northerlies for all. Monday sees a ridge over the
UK with light NE'lies and northerlies as a result.

T+120 synopsis
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a distorted omega block, with the majority of the
jet's energy in the southern branch. This is displaced far to the south of
normal, crossing the Azores and the Canaries. A weak and highly meridional
jet heads southwards to the west of the UK. At the 500hPa level there's a
trough to the east and upper northerlies for the UK. ECM also shows upper
northerlies, with an upper high to the west and a trough to the east. MetO
instead shows a cut-off high south of Greenland and an upper trough across
the UK, while GEM shows an upper trough to the east as per GFS/ECM. JMA
shows upper northerlies too.
At the surface, GFS has northerlies with a low over the North Sea. ECM also
has a low to the east, with stronger northerlies as a result. MetO shows
NE'lies instead with low pressure over the English Channel, while GEM and
JMA both show northerlies too.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows further northerlies on day 6 as high pressure "topples" towards
the UK from the west. On day 7 the winds become NNW'lies as a ridge from the
high reaches Ireland.
GFS brings northerlies on day 6 with a high to the west and a trough moving
westwards over the UK. On day 7 the high declines over Ireland, maintaining
northerlies for England and Wales with SW'lies elsewhere.

Looking further afield
ECM shows SSW'lies on day 8 as high pressure builds over Iberia. On day 9
strong southerlies cover the UK, followed by further southerlies on day 10
from a secondary low over Ireland.
GFS has low pressure to the north on day 8, with SSW'lies for many areas. On
day 9 the low is forced southwards as pressure builds to the NE, with
easterlies for most. By day 10 the high moves westwards, with light
northerlies for Scotland and easterlies or ENE'lies elsewhere.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res)
The ensembles start the New Year the way they ended the old, with a
prolonged cold spell and no sign of a warm-up for well over a week.

On 1 Jan, 05:27, "Darren Prescott" wrote:

**Happy New Year to all readers!**


Thanks Darren, and the same to you of course, with especial thanks for
the splendid work you do for us all throughout the year!

Steve Jackson
Bablake Weather Station
Coventry UK
www.bablakeweather.co.uk

In article ,
Darren Prescott writes:
Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Tuesday.
Issued 0525, New Year's Day 2009.

Northerlies will affect the UK for the latter half of the working week,
bringing widespread frosts inland and snow showers for coastal areas
exposed to the wind. For the weekend, there's a sharp divide, with GFS
maintaining cold conditions and ECM bringing rain and much milder
temperatures for all.
snip

Looking further afield
ECM shows SSW'lies on day 8 as high pressure builds over Iberia. On day
9 strong southerlies cover the UK, followed by further southerlies on
day 10 from a secondary low over Ireland.
snip

Was that yesterday's 12Z run? On the 1st Jan 00Z operational run, I
can't see any sign of a breakdown, with easterlies or northeasterlies
continuing through days 8-10.

Happy New Year, and thanks for all the work that you put in on this,
often at some god-forsaken hour of the morning.
--
John Hall "[It was] so steep that at intervals the street broke into steps,
like a person breaking into giggles or hiccups, and then resumed
its sober climb, until it had another fit of steps."
Ursula K Le Guin "The Beginning Place"

"John Hall" wrote:
Was that yesterday's 12Z run?

Happy New Year, and thanks for all the work that you put in on this,
often at some god-forsaken hour of the morning.
As a general rule of thumb, the 12z run from the previous day is the one
referred to in my ECM commentary: the 0z output doesn't come out until a
couple of hours after I've written that part of the analysis.

That might not be the case tomorrow, mind you, as I saw the new year in for
the first time in ages. I was up at the normal time today but I have a
feeling it'll catch up with me tomorrow morning!

In article ,
Darren Prescott writes:
"John Hall" wrote:
Was that yesterday's 12Z run?

Happy New Year, and thanks for all the work that you put in on this,
often at some god-forsaken hour of the morning.
As a general rule of thumb, the 12z run from the previous day is the
one referred to in my ECM commentary: the 0z output doesn't come out
until a couple of hours after I've written that part of the analysis.

Ah, right. I expect that you've told me that before and that I've
forgotten. Sorry. Perhaps in your "template" for these posts, it might
be worth including a reminder that the models used are the GFS 00Z (I
assume) and the previous day's ECM 12Z. One tends not to expect a run
that was initialised some 17 hours earlier to be the one being used.

That might not be the case tomorrow, mind you, as I saw the new year in
for the first time in ages. I was up at the normal time today but I
have a feeling it'll catch up with me tomorrow morning!

I hope you don't feel too dreadful. I can sympathise, as I didn't sleep
well myself. I think I'll have to give up having a glass of something
when I see the New Year in, as drinking not long before going to bed -
especially if not accompanied by food - seems to give me problems with
acid reflex. Not too serious, but even after a Rennie enough to delay
going off to sleep by an hour or so. And after that I was woken a couple
of times by the cough that I've acquired as the result of a nasty cold
that I'm just getting over.
--
John Hall "[It was] so steep that at intervals the street broke into steps,
like a person breaking into giggles or hiccups, and then resumed
its sober climb, until it had another fit of steps."
Ursula K Le Guin "The Beginning Place"