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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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At the moment the most likely time for a reasonable fall of snow looks to be
around Wednesday as a front moves South. It also looks as though as it does so it could split East and West and frankly anywhere, including the S.E could miss out so be prepared. No rattles out of said pram though, there should be further opportunities. Dave |
#2
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On Jan 3, 10:32*am, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote: At the moment the most likely time for a reasonable fall of snow looks to be around Wednesday as a front moves South. It also looks as though as it does so it could split East and West and frankly anywhere, including the S.E could miss out so be prepared. No rattles out of said pram though, there should be further opportunities. Dave GFS 06Z 03/01/2010 run shows some interesting 144 hour accumulated liquid totals, if it is to be believed. The south coast around Southampton could be in for a big dump! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs144sum.gif |
#3
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Dave.
If I want to throw my rattle out of my pram, I will, I can also go one better and smash up my train set as well! Regards. Len. "Dave Cornwell" wrote in message ... At the moment the most likely time for a reasonable fall of snow looks to be around Wednesday as a front moves South. It also looks as though as it does so it could split East and West and frankly anywhere, including the S.E could miss out so be prepared. No rattles out of said pram though, there should be further opportunities. Dave |
#4
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|"Alan" wrote in message
... |On Jan 3, 10:32 am, "Dave Cornwell" wrote: At the moment the most likely time for a reasonable fall of snow looks to be around Wednesday as a front moves South. It also looks as though as it does so it could split East and West and frankly anywhere, including the S.E could miss out so be prepared. No rattles out of said pram though, there should be further opportunities. Dave | |GFS 06Z 03/01/2010 run shows some interesting 144 hour accumulated |liquid totals, if it is to be believed. |The south coast around Southampton could be in for a big dump! | |http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs144sum.gif | I had a look at the Bracknell charts on http://meteonet.nl/aktueel/brackall.htm (link courtesy of "Weather Jack" Harrison) which currently has three forecast charts for 12Z on Wednesday 6 January. The oldest one (T+96) would indeed be "Apocalypse Now" for our part of the world if it verified. The next offering issued 12 hours later for T+84 might push the odd flake of snow over the chalk downs. The most recent one (T+72) looks totally innocuous for this part of the world. As the general situation is northerly, I would be surprised if we see anything much out of this here in the sunny south. A 600 mile land track with a number of ranges of hills en route will see to that. Even the chalk downs around Guildford and Haslemere are normally sufficient to prevent anything significant reaching the Southampton area on a NEly unless there is strong synoptic forcing. To get serious snow here (as opposed to freezing rain, which we took big just before Christmas and which only requires southerlies or southwesterlies aloft bringing showers off the Channel) we need a SEly with very cold air coming off the Continent. The freezing rain event was weird. We had a very shallow layer of cold air at -3C or below which just sat on the ground while the mild air containing the rain showers rolled over only about 1500 - 2000 ft above. I watched the ice build up thinking "it just needs the wind to pick up and it will thaw just like that", but it didn't happen. -- - Yokel - Yokel @ Ashurst New Forest SU 336 107 17m a.s.l. "Yokel" posts via a spam-trap account which is not read. |
#5
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On Sun, 3 Jan 2010 21:06:38 -0000, "Yokel"
wrote: |"Alan" wrote in message ... |On Jan 3, 10:32 am, "Dave Cornwell" wrote: At the moment the most likely time for a reasonable fall of snow looks to be around Wednesday as a front moves South. It also looks as though as it does so it could split East and West and frankly anywhere, including the S.E could miss out so be prepared. No rattles out of said pram though, there should be further opportunities. Dave | |GFS 06Z 03/01/2010 run shows some interesting 144 hour accumulated |liquid totals, if it is to be believed. |The south coast around Southampton could be in for a big dump! | |http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs144sum.gif | I had a look at the Bracknell charts on http://meteonet.nl/aktueel/brackall.htm (link courtesy of "Weather Jack" Harrison) which currently has three forecast charts for 12Z on Wednesday 6 January. The oldest one (T+96) would indeed be "Apocalypse Now" for our part of the world if it verified. The next offering issued 12 hours later for T+84 might push the odd flake of snow over the chalk downs. The most recent one (T+72) looks totally innocuous for this part of the world. As the general situation is northerly, I would be surprised if we see anything much out of this here in the sunny south. A 600 mile land track with a number of ranges of hills en route will see to that. Even the chalk downs around Guildford and Haslemere are normally sufficient to prevent anything significant reaching the Southampton area on a NEly unless there is strong synoptic forcing. To get serious snow here (as opposed to freezing rain, which we took big just before Christmas and which only requires southerlies or southwesterlies aloft bringing showers off the Channel) we need a SEly with very cold air coming off the Continent. The freezing rain event was weird. We had a very shallow layer of cold air at -3C or below which just sat on the ground while the mild air containing the rain showers rolled over only about 1500 - 2000 ft above. I watched the ice build up thinking "it just needs the wind to pick up and it will thaw just like that", but it didn't happen. "To get serious snow here we need a SEly with very cold air coming off the Continent." Thats where it will come from next Fri/Sat looking at CountryFile (a good possibility- need to wait for updates) |
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