....And here's the chart for 12 hours later: http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/fax/fax36s.gif

Low pressure centred over Southampton, roughly.

On Mon, 04 Jan 2010 17:15:01 +0000, Will Hand wrote:

I must confess that I'm getting *really* interested about tomorrow now.
Without exagerration this could be a very big snowfall (foot or more)
for many parts of Wales and southern Britain. Embedded small lows are a
sign of deep potential instability in the flow.

Now where did I put that snow shovel that has not been used for 10
months? :-)

Will (Haytor, Devon , 1017 feet asl)

It would be somewhat ironic if, having had one small fall of snow
throughout this extended cold spell, I ended up being buried under inches
and inches of the stuff! I'll believe it when (and if) I see it, though.
It's 1996 since we even had 10cm here!



--
Bewdley, Worcs. ~90m asl.

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Jan 4, 5:08 pm, RK wrote:
On Jan 4, 4:43 pm, Dawlish wrote:

The next set of FAX charts could be interesting!

New fax for 12 noon tomorrow:http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif

Shows a separate LP centre over the Welsh border, which seems
consistent with the 12Z NAE
ouput:http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...nae/2010/01/04...

The chart for midnight will be the key one, 12 hours later...

Goodness! And that at 24 hours, not at some impossible distance. There
are heavy snow possibilities in that chart for almost anyone in the
UK. It is, still, only a chart though, as you rightly imply Rob, by
looking forward to the next one!
================

Paul, T+24 charts are rarely wrong these days, fine tuning of course will
be needed but the evolution is there.

Will
--
-----------------------
Without doing a "Larry" on you does this risk still include the S.E? I won't
hold you to it but I'm starting to get confused as to what's happening when.
;-)
Dave

On Jan 4, 5:20*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Jan 4, 5:08 pm, RK wrote:

On Jan 4, 4:43 pm, Dawlish wrote:

The next set of FAX charts could be interesting!

New fax for 12 noon tomorrow:http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif

Shows a separate LP centre over the Welsh border, which seems
consistent with the 12Z NAE
ouput:http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...nae/2010/01/04...

The chart for midnight will be the key one, 12 hours later...

Goodness! And that at 24 hours, not at some impossible distance. There
are heavy snow possibilities in that chart for almost anyone in the
UK. It is, still, only a chart though, as you rightly imply Rob, by
looking forward to the next one!
================

Paul, T+24 charts are rarely wrong these days, fine tuning of course will be
needed but the evolution is there.

Will
--

Oooo! I don't think I could agree with "rarely wrong" Will, though I
do accept that there a wide interpretation of exactly what "wrong"
would mean and the 24 hour charts do have a high degree of "right"!
There were a few howlers during the pre-new year, almost, but not
quite, cold and snowy spell and the non-appearance of snow upset some
on here and on other Internet forums too! The severe weather, in terms
of heavy snow that was implied on some of those pre-New Year 24 hour
charts wasn't "delivered" and that's how to upset a coldie, for sure!
*))

On Jan 4, 5:39*pm, Dawlish wrote:
The severe weather, in terms
of heavy snow that was implied on some of those pre-New Year 24 hour
charts wasn't "delivered" and that's how to upset a coldie, for sure!

True, but that was really a question of temperature rather than
synoptic situation. The spell you refer to was very marginal indeed,
and plenty of precipitation fell, unfortunately (depending on your
views) it was of the cold wet kind rather than the fluffy white kind.
I think I got at least 25mm of rain over two days then. The current
set-up looks rather colder.

On Jan 4, 5:50*pm, RK wrote:
On Jan 4, 5:39*pm, Dawlish wrote:
*The severe weather, in terms

of heavy snow that was implied on some of those pre-New Year 24 hour
charts wasn't "delivered" and that's how to upset a coldie, for sure!

True, but that was really a question of temperature rather than
synoptic situation. The spell you refer to was very marginal indeed,
and plenty of precipitation fell, unfortunately (depending on your
views) it was of the cold wet kind rather than the fluffy white kind.
I think I got at least 25mm of rain over two days then. The current
set-up looks rather colder.

Very true Rob and I did write that at the time, actually in defence of
the MetO. I wished they'd have referred to and explained the
difficulties they faced with those forecasts actually on the severe
warnings site, but that didn't happen and it (again) served to
alienate, rather than to educate. However, on that occasion, the
charts did prove incorrect at 24 hours notice; the fronts pushed
further north, the cold air was not as severely cold and many areas
stayed green as a result. That's why I can't agree with the "rarely
wrong" comment, though I understand where Will is coming from as the
24 forecasts have improved considerably over the last 20 years. Most
of the time they are very good and provide an excellent portrayal of
the next day's likely weather but "rarely wrong" is moot!

In terms of seeing snow on Wednesday, part of me wants them to be spot
on so I can make snowmen, toboggan and throw snowballs and part of me
wants them to be inaccurate so we don't have lingering snow problems!

Que sera eh?

On 4 Jan, 17:50, RK wrote:
On Jan 4, 5:39*pm, Dawlish wrote:
*The severe weather, in terms

of heavy snow that was implied on some of those pre-New Year 24 hour
charts wasn't "delivered" and that's how to upset a coldie, for sure!

True, but that was really a question of temperature rather than
synoptic situation. The spell you refer to was very marginal indeed,
and plenty of precipitation fell, unfortunately (depending on your
views) it was of the cold wet kind rather than the fluffy white kind.
I think I got at least 25mm of rain over two days then. The current
set-up looks rather colder.

Indeed. Everything is in place. Now just give us some precipitation...

On Mon, 4 Jan 2010 10:02:13 -0800 (PST), Scott W
wrote:

On 4 Jan, 17:50, RK wrote:
On Jan 4, 5:39*pm, Dawlish wrote:
*The severe weather, in terms

of heavy snow that was implied on some of those pre-New Year 24 hour
charts wasn't "delivered" and that's how to upset a coldie, for sure!

True, but that was really a question of temperature rather than
synoptic situation. The spell you refer to was very marginal indeed,
and plenty of precipitation fell, unfortunately (depending on your
views) it was of the cold wet kind rather than the fluffy white kind.
I think I got at least 25mm of rain over two days then. The current
set-up looks rather colder.

Indeed. Everything is in place. Now just give us some precipitation...

I don't think it will be a matter of precipitation down here on the C.
south coast, I think t temperature will be more of an issue. We rarely
get lying snow from any kind of airstream with onshore winds (though
it did happen once last winter, and I suppose we could get rain/sleet
turning to snow).

--
Dave
Fareham

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
...

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Jan 4, 5:08 pm, RK wrote:
On Jan 4, 4:43 pm, Dawlish wrote:

The next set of FAX charts could be interesting!

New fax for 12 noon
tomorrow:http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif

Shows a separate LP centre over the Welsh border, which seems
consistent with the 12Z NAE
ouput:http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/da...nae/2010/01/04...

The chart for midnight will be the key one, 12 hours later...

Goodness! And that at 24 hours, not at some impossible distance. There
are heavy snow possibilities in that chart for almost anyone in the
UK. It is, still, only a chart though, as you rightly imply Rob, by
looking forward to the next one!
================

Paul, T+24 charts are rarely wrong these days, fine tuning of course will
be needed but the evolution is there.

Will
--
-----------------------
Without doing a "Larry" on you does this risk still include the S.E? I
won't hold you to it but I'm starting to get confused as to what's
happening when. ;-)
Dave


Yes.

Will
--

Goodness! And that at 24 hours, not at some impossible distance. There
are heavy snow possibilities in that chart for almost anyone in the
UK. It is, still, only a chart though, as you rightly imply Rob, by
looking forward to the next one!
Well, given that the low jumped several hundred miles between the 0z T+36
and the 12z T+24, I don't put much store in the current forecasts pinning
down that snowy area just yet. Of course, the more-than-slight miffedness of
seeing inches of snow turn into 1mm (!) from the latest NAE might have
something to do with my views. I'll look a right old Charlie if that were to
happen, bearing in mind I've booked Wednesday and Thursday as days off work
in expectation of snow.

If the NAE is right, and I suspect it won't be, this part of Kent (Leysdown,
near to the sea) will see all of 1mm of precipitation in the next two days
(to noon on Wednesday). Given the deep cold air, the proximity of frontal
systems, instability - I can't see 1mm being anywhere near right.

It's also interesting that the BBC forecasts have latched onto the 12z NAE
output as the be all and end all, given that it was a big switch from the
6z. Even the MetO's Unified Model shows everything further east!

Michael Fish on the local news will be a worthwhile watch tonight, I feel.