"John Hall" wrote in message
...

I've already remarked on it in another thread, though the ensemble
wasn't available to me. I haven't checked the ECMWF ensemble, but the
"mittel" chart towards day 8 or 10 gives the wind over the UK more of a
SEly fetch, suggesting that some members could be going the same way as
the GFS operational run.
--

There's a lot of spread in the 12Z EC ENS output in terms of 850hPa
temperatures from day 6 but there does seem to be fairly good support for a
trend towards slightly less cold air in depth by day 10 and also for
increasing contour heights (and hence surface pressure) in the vicinity of
the UK. I would imagine the boundary layer would remain very cold though.

Jon.

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"John Hall" wrote in message
...

I've already remarked on it in another thread, though the ensemble
wasn't available to me. I haven't checked the ECMWF ensemble, but the
"mittel" chart towards day 8 or 10 gives the wind over the UK more of a
SEly fetch, suggesting that some members could be going the same way as
the GFS operational run.
--

There's a lot of spread in the 12Z EC ENS output in terms of 850hPa
temperatures from day 6 but there does seem to be fairly good support for
a trend towards slightly less cold air in depth by day 10 and also for
increasing contour heights (and hence surface pressure) in the vicinity of
the UK. I would imagine the boundary layer would remain very cold though.

Jon.

That's my take on it as well Jon. As I said to Keith earlier, high pressure
should dominate with all the action in the far south and possibly the SW as
lows try to push in. But there is no sign of a jet in an optimal position to
break down the block, the deep cold trough over Canada is still pushing the
polar jet well south. I notice also a renewed surge of extremely cold
(sub -40C) poised to once again come into northern Russia which helped start
all this in mid December.

Will
--