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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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3 consecutive gfs runs with milder conditions at T240+, then at T240
and hints (but only hints) from the ECM of Atlantic air pushing our way. GEM on the fence with high pressure hanging on to our NE and a very messy situation resulting over England with easterlies still over Scotland at 10 days. Worth watching now. The gfs 00z ens are the latest I can find. They show the 00z operational run, which had the first hints of milder air, as being a marked warm outlier at T240+ and pretty well unsupported at T240 itself; probably what you'd have expected 12 hours ago, and if the mild air had now disappeared I wouldn't be talking about possibilities, but we are now 2 runs on and the gfs is sticking to its guns. Anyone got a link to the 06z, or the 12z gfs ens? Was the op run a warm outlier on both? http://91.121.93.17/pics/MT8_London_ens.png My confidence of an end to the cold spell is still fairly low, but has risen a little today! |
#2
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On Wed, 06 Jan 2010 08:51:52 -0800, Dawlish wrote:
snip Anyone got a link to the 06z, or the 12z gfs ens? Was the op run a warm outlier on both? http://91.121.93.17/pics/MT8_London_ens.png snip That link appears to have stopped updating; no idea why. Someone on TWO has put together a simple page showing the GFS ensembles for London, Manchester, Aberdeen, Dublin... and Moscow! That seems still to be updating properly: http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/ -- Bewdley, Worcs. ~90m asl. |
#3
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In article
, Dawlish writes: The gfs 00z ens are the latest I can find. They show the 00z operational run, which had the first hints of milder air, as being a marked warm outlier at T240+ and pretty well unsupported at T240 itself; probably what you'd have expected 12 hours ago, and if the mild air had now disappeared I wouldn't be talking about possibilities, but we are now 2 runs on and the gfs is sticking to its guns. Anyone got a link to the 06z, or the 12z gfs ens? Was the op run a warm outlier on both? http://91.121.93.17/pics/MT8_London_ens.pn Note that for some reason that graph hasn't been updated for over 24 hours and is still showing 00Z for the 5th, not for the 6th. -- John Hall "Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people from coughing." Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83) |
#4
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"John Hall" wrote ...
Note that for some reason that graph hasn't been updated for over 24 hours and is still showing 00Z for the 5th, not for the 6th. .... you can pick a location based on a 1° x 1° grid at this url:- http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsnewenszr.htm seems to be up to date. Martin. -- Martin Rowley West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W NGR: SU 082 023 |
#5
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Martin Rowley wrote:
"John Hall" wrote ... Note that for some reason that graph hasn't been updated for over 24 hours and is still showing 00Z for the 5th, not for the 6th. ... you can pick a location based on a 1° x 1° grid at this url:- http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsnewenszr.htm seems to be up to date. Martin. Nice one Martin. You can get an instant feel for what direction ALL ensembly members are going by clicking on various areas. I just did this for Norway, Denmark, Germany, Belgium etc, and they now look more colder at the longer range. -- Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net |
#6
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On Jan 6, 8:07*pm, "Martin Rowley"
wrote: "John Hall" wrote ... Note that for some reason that graph hasn't been updated for over 24 hours and is still showing 00Z for the 5th, not for the 6th. ... you can pick a location based on a 1 x 1 grid at this url:- http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsnewenszr.htm seems to be up to date. Martin. -- Martin Rowley West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl Lat: 50.82N * Long: 01.88W NGR: SU 082 023 Thank you Martin. Very useful. The graph I posted was in fact the 12z ens, with the incorrect heading! No agreement from the 12z ECM whatsoever and that 12z gfs was indeed a warm outlier. Back to looking for a breakdown.......... it may take some time! |
#7
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![]() "Dawlish" wrote in message ... On Jan 6, 8:07 pm, "Martin Rowley" wrote: "John Hall" wrote ... Note that for some reason that graph hasn't been updated for over 24 hours and is still showing 00Z for the 5th, not for the 6th. ... you can pick a location based on a 1 x 1 grid at this url:- http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsnewenszr.htm seems to be up to date. Martin. -- Martin Rowley West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W NGR: SU 082 023 Thank you Martin. Very useful. The graph I posted was in fact the 12z ens, with the incorrect heading! No agreement from the 12z ECM whatsoever and that 12z gfs was indeed a warm outlier. Back to looking for a breakdown.......... it may take some time! ====== March, Paul, I keep telling you! :-) Will -- |
#8
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"Will Hand" wrote in message
... March, Paul, I keep telling you! :-) Will -- Which year, Will ? Jon. |
#9
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On Jan 6, 9:43*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message ... On Jan 6, 8:07 pm, "Martin Rowley" wrote: "John Hall" wrote ... Note that for some reason that graph hasn't been updated for over 24 hours and is still showing 00Z for the 5th, not for the 6th. ... you can pick a location based on a 1 x 1 grid at this url:- http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsnewenszr.htm seems to be up to date. Martin. -- Martin Rowley West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W NGR: SU 082 023 Thank you Martin. Very useful. The graph I posted was in fact the 12z ens, with the incorrect heading! No agreement from the 12z ECM whatsoever and that 12z gfs was indeed a warm outlier. Back to looking for a breakdown.......... it may take some time! ====== March, Paul, I keep telling you! :-) Will --- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Heh, maybe so! No harm looking for it though, but it does put me in mind of the T240 easterly hunters from most other winters! 12z gfs showing mild again! Let's have a look at the ens from the 12z, the ECM 12z and with the benefit of another 4 gfs mild-at-T240 runs, agreement from the ECM and some magic sparkly dust from the pixies, we have a breakdown! *)) |
#10
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On 7 Jan, 17:09, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 6, 9:43*pm, "Will Hand" wrote: "Dawlish" wrote in message .... On Jan 6, 8:07 pm, "Martin Rowley" wrote: "John Hall" wrote ... Note that for some reason that graph hasn't been updated for over 24 hours and is still showing 00Z for the 5th, not for the 6th. ... you can pick a location based on a 1 x 1 grid at this url:- http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsnewenszr.htm seems to be up to date. Martin. -- Martin Rowley West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W NGR: SU 082 023 Thank you Martin. Very useful. The graph I posted was in fact the 12z ens, with the incorrect heading! No agreement from the 12z ECM whatsoever and that 12z gfs was indeed a warm outlier. Back to looking for a breakdown.......... it may take some time! ====== March, Paul, I keep telling you! :-) Will --- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Heh, maybe so! No harm looking for it though, but it does put me in mind of the T240 easterly hunters from most other winters! 12z gfs showing mild again! Let's have a look at the ens from the 12z, the ECM 12z and with the benefit of another 4 gfs mild-at-T240 runs, agreement from the ECM and some magic sparkly dust from the pixies, we have a breakdown! *))- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - I heard a Met Office spokesman (didn't catch his name) on FiveLive earlier saying that we are locked into this pattern until the end of the month... |
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