3 consecutive gfs runs with milder conditions at T240+, then at T240
and hints (but only hints) from the ECM of Atlantic air pushing our
way. GEM on the fence with high pressure hanging on to our NE and a
very messy situation resulting over England with easterlies still over
Scotland at 10 days. Worth watching now.

The gfs 00z ens are the latest I can find. They show the 00z
operational run, which had the first hints of milder air, as being a
marked warm outlier at T240+ and pretty well unsupported at T240
itself; probably what you'd have expected 12 hours ago, and if the
mild air had now disappeared I wouldn't be talking about
possibilities, but we are now 2 runs on and the gfs is sticking to its
guns. Anyone got a link to the 06z, or the 12z gfs ens? Was the op run
a warm outlier on both?

http://91.121.93.17/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

My confidence of an end to the cold spell is still fairly low, but has
risen a little today!

On Wed, 06 Jan 2010 08:51:52 -0800, Dawlish wrote:

snip
Anyone got a link to the
06z, or the 12z gfs ens? Was the op run a warm outlier on both?

http://91.121.93.17/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
snip

That link appears to have stopped updating; no idea why. Someone on TWO
has put together a simple page showing the GFS ensembles for London,
Manchester, Aberdeen, Dublin... and Moscow! That seems still to be
updating properly:

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/


--
Bewdley, Worcs. ~90m asl.

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
The gfs 00z ens are the latest I can find. They show the 00z
operational run, which had the first hints of milder air, as being a
marked warm outlier at T240+ and pretty well unsupported at T240
itself; probably what you'd have expected 12 hours ago, and if the
mild air had now disappeared I wouldn't be talking about
possibilities, but we are now 2 runs on and the gfs is sticking to its
guns. Anyone got a link to the 06z, or the 12z gfs ens? Was the op run
a warm outlier on both?

http://91.121.93.17/pics/MT8_London_ens.pn

Note that for some reason that graph hasn't been updated for over 24
hours and is still showing 00Z for the 5th, not for the 6th.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

"John Hall" wrote ...

Note that for some reason that graph hasn't been updated for over 24
hours and is still showing 00Z for the 5th, not for the 6th.

.... you can pick a location based on a 1° x 1° grid at this url:-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsnewenszr.htm

seems to be up to date.

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

Martin Rowley wrote:
"John Hall" wrote ...
Note that for some reason that graph hasn't been updated for over 24
hours and is still showing 00Z for the 5th, not for the 6th.

... you can pick a location based on a 1° x 1° grid at this url:-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsnewenszr.htm

seems to be up to date.

Martin.



Nice one Martin. You can get an instant feel for what direction ALL
ensembly members are going by clicking on various areas. I just did this
for Norway, Denmark, Germany, Belgium etc, and they now look more colder
at the longer range.

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

On Jan 6, 8:07*pm, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:
"John Hall" wrote ...



Note that for some reason that graph hasn't been updated for over 24
hours and is still showing 00Z for the 5th, not for the 6th.

... you can pick a location based on a 1 x 1 grid at this url:-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsnewenszr.htm

seems to be up to date.

Martin.

--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N * Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

Thank you Martin. Very useful. The graph I posted was in fact the 12z
ens, with the incorrect heading!

No agreement from the 12z ECM whatsoever and that 12z gfs was indeed a
warm outlier. Back to looking for a breakdown.......... it may take
some time!

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Jan 6, 8:07 pm, "Martin Rowley"
wrote:
"John Hall" wrote ...



Note that for some reason that graph hasn't been updated for over 24
hours and is still showing 00Z for the 5th, not for the 6th.

... you can pick a location based on a 1 x 1 grid at this url:-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsnewenszr.htm

seems to be up to date.

Martin.

--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

Thank you Martin. Very useful. The graph I posted was in fact the 12z
ens, with the incorrect heading!

No agreement from the 12z ECM whatsoever and that 12z gfs was indeed a
warm outlier. Back to looking for a breakdown.......... it may take
some time!
======

March, Paul, I keep telling you! :-)

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

March, Paul, I keep telling you! :-)

Will
--

Which year, Will ?

Jon.

On Jan 6, 9:43*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Jan 6, 8:07 pm, "Martin Rowley"





wrote:
"John Hall" wrote ...

Note that for some reason that graph hasn't been updated for over 24
hours and is still showing 00Z for the 5th, not for the 6th.

... you can pick a location based on a 1 x 1 grid at this url:-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsnewenszr.htm

seems to be up to date.

Martin.

--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

Thank you Martin. Very useful. The graph I posted was in fact the 12z
ens, with the incorrect heading!

No agreement from the 12z ECM whatsoever and that 12z gfs was indeed a
warm outlier. Back to looking for a breakdown.......... it may take
some time!
======

March, Paul, I keep telling you! :-)

Will
--- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Heh, maybe so! No harm looking for it though, but it does put me in
mind of the T240 easterly hunters from most other winters! 12z gfs
showing mild again!

Let's have a look at the ens from the 12z, the ECM 12z and with the
benefit of another 4 gfs mild-at-T240 runs, agreement from the ECM and
some magic sparkly dust from the pixies, we have a breakdown! *))

On 7 Jan, 17:09, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 6, 9:43*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:





"Dawlish" wrote in message

....
On Jan 6, 8:07 pm, "Martin Rowley"

wrote:
"John Hall" wrote ...

Note that for some reason that graph hasn't been updated for over 24
hours and is still showing 00Z for the 5th, not for the 6th.

... you can pick a location based on a 1 x 1 grid at this url:-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsnewenszr.htm

seems to be up to date.

Martin.

--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

Thank you Martin. Very useful. The graph I posted was in fact the 12z
ens, with the incorrect heading!

No agreement from the 12z ECM whatsoever and that 12z gfs was indeed a
warm outlier. Back to looking for a breakdown.......... it may take
some time!
======

March, Paul, I keep telling you! :-)

Will
--- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Heh, maybe so! No harm looking for it though, but it does put me in
mind of the T240 easterly hunters from most other winters! 12z gfs
showing mild again!

Let's have a look at the ens from the 12z, the ECM 12z and with the
benefit of another 4 gfs mild-at-T240 runs, agreement from the ECM and
some magic sparkly dust from the pixies, we have a breakdown! *))- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I heard a Met Office spokesman (didn't catch his name) on FiveLive
earlier saying that we are locked into this pattern until the end of
the month...