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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Looked at a few of the recent operational model runs just now. The
ECMWF does seem to have a worrying consistency to bring actively mild air (i.e. from a W or SW direction rather than SSE) across for a few days to almost all areas, even up into Scotland, in two spikes - a cyclonic one around Wed/Thurs, then an anticyclonic one the following weekend. The GFS seems less keen to do this, keeping the mild air away to the south, though even that seems to suggest a brief mild anticyclonic spell for next weekend before cold seems to develop again around the 18/19 (typical because I'm planning on going to the Lake District next weekend and if that comes off it'll doubtless be dire mild damp conditions up there). So what's the current feeling on mild air (above the seasonal average) making it to places away from the SW for a time later next week or over next weekend? There does seem to be agreement for it going colder again the following week though, though the ECMWF has a worrying favour for anticyclonic S winds which might not be cold if France sees a thaw this coming week. Nick |
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![]() "Nick" wrote in message ... Looked at a few of the recent operational model runs just now. The ECMWF does seem to have a worrying consistency to bring actively mild air (i.e. from a W or SW direction rather than SSE) across for a few days to almost all areas, even up into Scotland, in two spikes - a cyclonic one around Wed/Thurs, then an anticyclonic one the following weekend. The GFS seems less keen to do this, keeping the mild air away to the south, though even that seems to suggest a brief mild anticyclonic spell for next weekend before cold seems to develop again around the 18/19 (typical because I'm planning on going to the Lake District next weekend and if that comes off it'll doubtless be dire mild damp conditions up there). So what's the current feeling on mild air (above the seasonal average) making it to places away from the SW for a time later next week or over next weekend? There does seem to be agreement for it going colder again the following week though, though the ECMWF has a worrying favour for anticyclonic S winds which might not be cold if France sees a thaw this coming week. Nick Nick, I have already talked about this, it is a "suckers gap" it is not going to be that mild even though the thickness goes up and 850 temps go up due to very cold surface air. It is a very serious situation capable of giving the heaviest snow for decades in places. Will -- |
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