Looked at a few of the recent operational model runs just now. The
ECMWF does seem to have a worrying consistency to bring actively mild
air (i.e. from a W or SW direction rather than SSE) across for a few
days to almost all areas, even up into Scotland, in two spikes - a
cyclonic one around Wed/Thurs, then an anticyclonic one the following
weekend.

The GFS seems less keen to do this, keeping the mild air away to the
south, though even that seems to suggest a brief mild anticyclonic
spell for next weekend before cold seems to develop again around the
18/19 (typical because I'm planning on going to the Lake District next
weekend and if that comes off it'll doubtless be dire mild damp
conditions up there).

So what's the current feeling on mild air (above the seasonal average)
making it to places away from the SW for a time later next week or
over next weekend?

There does seem to be agreement for it going colder again the
following week though, though the ECMWF has a worrying favour for
anticyclonic S winds which might not be cold if France sees a thaw
this coming week.

Nick

"Nick" wrote in message
...
Looked at a few of the recent operational model runs just now. The
ECMWF does seem to have a worrying consistency to bring actively mild
air (i.e. from a W or SW direction rather than SSE) across for a few
days to almost all areas, even up into Scotland, in two spikes - a
cyclonic one around Wed/Thurs, then an anticyclonic one the following
weekend.

The GFS seems less keen to do this, keeping the mild air away to the
south, though even that seems to suggest a brief mild anticyclonic
spell for next weekend before cold seems to develop again around the
18/19 (typical because I'm planning on going to the Lake District next
weekend and if that comes off it'll doubtless be dire mild damp
conditions up there).

So what's the current feeling on mild air (above the seasonal average)
making it to places away from the SW for a time later next week or
over next weekend?

There does seem to be agreement for it going colder again the
following week though, though the ECMWF has a worrying favour for
anticyclonic S winds which might not be cold if France sees a thaw
this coming week.

Nick

Nick, I have already talked about this, it is a "suckers gap" it is not
going to be that mild even though the thickness goes up and 850 temps go up
due to very cold surface air. It is a very serious situation capable of
giving the heaviest snow for decades in places.

Will
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