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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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On Jan 11, 5:34*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message ... On Jan 11, 10:32 am, Dawlish wrote: On Jan 11, 8:28 am, Dawlish wrote: On Jan 10, 8:05 pm, Nick wrote: On Jan 10, 7:51 pm, "Graham" wrote: Is it my imagination, or is the ECM just beginning to think about showing the Atlantic making ever-so-slow progress towards breaching that Scandinavian block? Yes please, let's hope so ![]() Graham Nah, 20 Jan is too early :-) When the sun rises before 7 and sets after 5, then it can go mild. The mildness will at least feel springlike then! Nick Just a little further back east on the 00z ECM. Less so, ironically, on the gfs, but both models are showing milder at 10 days now and are both more inclined to move the atlantic through. Tentative, but are we seeing the longer term end to the cold. Here's hoping, but forecasting hope doesn't lead to success - as amply demonstrated on another thread!- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - 15-day 12z ens for The Netherlands. They *suggest* a warming and no return to the cold at 10 days+. This is probably colder than we are likely to experience as well. It *could* spell the death knell for a return of the cold. http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html In addition, the Jet is showing some signs of abandoning its southerly path. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn22814.png Not enough confidence yet, but by later this evening, there's a chance that I'll be 75% convinced of a longer term change. In the meantime, I'm really looking forward to 10C in Dawlish over the weekend........but I'm not looking forward to hosing the dog clean and drying him after every walk again (he's probably not that keen on it either!)!- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - gfs 12z shows a distinct lack of warmth at 10 days. (sigh). ========== I didn't have you down as a sucker Paul :-)) Will --- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Heh! I'd be a sucker if I'd forecast mild! 12z ECM could be read 2 ways: either extensive northern blocking beginning to re-establish itself at T240, or the source of the possible re-load of the cold pulling way back into Russia. There's a low shown at 9/10 days shown moving between Norway and Svarlbad; we haven't seen that for a long time and the PV has reverted to a single entity centred close to the North Pole. The low isn't given the same prominence on the gfs, but I wonder how much of a clod run the gfs operational was? There's some big changes possibly coming on those charts; still not at all clear for me whether we get colder again, or continued mildening (I like that word!). |
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