On Jan 11, 5:34*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Jan 11, 10:32 am, Dawlish wrote:





On Jan 11, 8:28 am, Dawlish wrote:

On Jan 10, 8:05 pm, Nick wrote:

On Jan 10, 7:51 pm, "Graham" wrote:

Is it my imagination, or is the ECM just beginning to think about
showing the Atlantic making ever-so-slow progress towards
breaching
that Scandinavian block?

Yes please, let's hope so

Graham

Nah, 20 Jan is too early :-)

When the sun rises before 7 and sets after 5, then it can go mild. The
mildness will at least feel springlike then!

Nick

Just a little further back east on the 00z ECM. Less so, ironically,
on the gfs, but both models are showing milder at 10 days now and are
both more inclined to move the atlantic through. Tentative, but are we
seeing the longer term end to the cold. Here's hoping, but forecasting
hope doesn't lead to success - as amply demonstrated on another thread!-
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15-day 12z ens for The Netherlands. They *suggest* a warming and no
return to the cold at 10 days+. This is probably colder than we are
likely to experience as well. It *could* spell the death knell for a
return of the cold.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

In addition, the Jet is showing some signs of abandoning its southerly
path.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn22814.png

Not enough confidence yet, but by later this evening, there's a chance
that I'll be 75% convinced of a longer term change.

In the meantime, I'm really looking forward to 10C in Dawlish over the
weekend........but I'm not looking forward to hosing the dog clean and
drying him after every walk again (he's probably not that keen on it
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gfs 12z shows a distinct lack of warmth at 10 days. (sigh).
==========

I didn't have you down as a sucker Paul :-))

Will
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Heh! I'd be a sucker if I'd forecast mild!

12z ECM could be read 2 ways: either extensive northern blocking
beginning to re-establish itself at T240, or the source of the
possible re-load of the cold pulling way back into Russia. There's a
low shown at 9/10 days shown moving between Norway and Svarlbad; we
haven't seen that for a long time and the PV has reverted to a single
entity centred close to the North Pole. The low isn't given the same
prominence on the gfs, but I wonder how much of a clod run the gfs
operational was?

There's some big changes possibly coming on those charts; still not at
all clear for me whether we get colder again, or continued mildening
(I like that word!).