Is it my imagination, or is the ECM just beginning to think about
showing the Atlantic making ever-so-slow progress towards breaching
that Scandinavian block?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

Nah! I'll look again tomorrow!

Is it my imagination, or is the ECM just beginning to think about
showing the Atlantic making ever-so-slow progress towards breaching
that Scandinavian block?

Yes please, let's hope so

Graham

On Jan 10, 7:51*pm, "Graham" wrote:
Is it my imagination, or is the ECM just beginning to think about
showing the Atlantic making ever-so-slow progress towards breaching
that Scandinavian block?

Yes please, let's hope so

Graham

Nah, 20 Jan is too early :-)

When the sun rises before 7 and sets after 5, then it can go mild. The
mildness will at least feel springlike then!

Nick

On Jan 10, 8:05*pm, Nick wrote:
On Jan 10, 7:51*pm, "Graham" wrote:

Is it my imagination, or is the ECM just beginning to think about
showing the Atlantic making ever-so-slow progress towards breaching
that Scandinavian block?

Yes please, let's hope so

Graham

Nah, 20 Jan is too early :-)

When the sun rises before 7 and sets after 5, then it can go mild. The
mildness will at least feel springlike then!

Nick

Just a little further back east on the 00z ECM. Less so, ironically,
on the gfs, but both models are showing milder at 10 days now and are
both more inclined to move the atlantic through. Tentative, but are we
seeing the longer term end to the cold. Here's hoping, but forecasting
hope doesn't lead to success - as amply demonstrated on another thread!

On Jan 11, 8:28*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 10, 8:05*pm, Nick wrote:





On Jan 10, 7:51*pm, "Graham" wrote:

Is it my imagination, or is the ECM just beginning to think about
showing the Atlantic making ever-so-slow progress towards breaching
that Scandinavian block?

Yes please, let's hope so

Graham

Nah, 20 Jan is too early :-)

When the sun rises before 7 and sets after 5, then it can go mild. The
mildness will at least feel springlike then!

Nick

Just a little further back east on the 00z ECM. Less so, ironically,
on the gfs, but both models are showing milder at 10 days now and are
both more inclined to move the atlantic through. Tentative, but are we
seeing the longer term end to the cold. Here's hoping, but forecasting
hope doesn't lead to success - as amply demonstrated on another thread!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

15-day 12z ens for The Netherlands. They *suggest* a warming and no
return to the cold at 10 days+. This is probably colder than we are
likely to experience as well. It *could* spell the death knell for a
return of the cold.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

In addition, the Jet is showing some signs of abandoning its southerly
path.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn22814.png

Not enough confidence yet, but by later this evening, there's a chance
that I'll be 75% convinced of a longer term change.

In the meantime, I'm really looking forward to 10C in Dawlish over the
weekend........but I'm not looking forward to hosing the dog clean and
drying him after every walk again (he's probably not that keen on it
either!)!

On Jan 11, 10:32*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 11, 8:28*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Jan 10, 8:05*pm, Nick wrote:

On Jan 10, 7:51*pm, "Graham" wrote:

Is it my imagination, or is the ECM just beginning to think about
showing the Atlantic making ever-so-slow progress towards breaching
that Scandinavian block?

Yes please, let's hope so

Graham

Nah, 20 Jan is too early :-)

When the sun rises before 7 and sets after 5, then it can go mild. The
mildness will at least feel springlike then!

Nick

Just a little further back east on the 00z ECM. Less so, ironically,
on the gfs, but both models are showing milder at 10 days now and are
both more inclined to move the atlantic through. Tentative, but are we
seeing the longer term end to the cold. Here's hoping, but forecasting
hope doesn't lead to success - as amply demonstrated on another thread!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

15-day 12z ens for The Netherlands. They *suggest* a warming and no
return to the cold at 10 days+. This is probably colder than we are
likely to experience as well. It *could* spell the death knell for a
return of the cold.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

In addition, the Jet is showing some signs of abandoning its southerly
path.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn22814.png

Not enough confidence yet, but by later this evening, there's a chance
that I'll be 75% convinced of a longer term change.

In the meantime, I'm really looking forward to 10C in Dawlish over the
weekend........but I'm not looking forward to hosing the dog clean and
drying him after every walk again (he's probably not that keen on it
either!)!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

gfs 12z shows a distinct lack of warmth at 10 days. (sigh).

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Jan 11, 10:32 am, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 11, 8:28 am, Dawlish wrote:





On Jan 10, 8:05 pm, Nick wrote:

On Jan 10, 7:51 pm, "Graham" wrote:

Is it my imagination, or is the ECM just beginning to think about
showing the Atlantic making ever-so-slow progress towards
breaching
that Scandinavian block?

Yes please, let's hope so

Graham

Nah, 20 Jan is too early :-)

When the sun rises before 7 and sets after 5, then it can go mild. The
mildness will at least feel springlike then!

Nick

Just a little further back east on the 00z ECM. Less so, ironically,
on the gfs, but both models are showing milder at 10 days now and are
both more inclined to move the atlantic through. Tentative, but are we
seeing the longer term end to the cold. Here's hoping, but forecasting
hope doesn't lead to success - as amply demonstrated on another thread!-
Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

15-day 12z ens for The Netherlands. They *suggest* a warming and no
return to the cold at 10 days+. This is probably colder than we are
likely to experience as well. It *could* spell the death knell for a
return of the cold.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

In addition, the Jet is showing some signs of abandoning its southerly
path.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn22814.png

Not enough confidence yet, but by later this evening, there's a chance
that I'll be 75% convinced of a longer term change.

In the meantime, I'm really looking forward to 10C in Dawlish over the
weekend........but I'm not looking forward to hosing the dog clean and
drying him after every walk again (he's probably not that keen on it
either!)!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

gfs 12z shows a distinct lack of warmth at 10 days. (sigh).
==========

I didn't have you down as a sucker Paul :-))

Will
--

Will Hand wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Jan 11, 10:32 am, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 11, 8:28 am, Dawlish wrote:





On Jan 10, 8:05 pm, Nick wrote:

On Jan 10, 7:51 pm, "Graham" wrote:

Is it my imagination, or is the ECM just beginning to think about
showing the Atlantic making ever-so-slow progress towards
breaching
that Scandinavian block?

Yes please, let's hope so

Graham

Nah, 20 Jan is too early :-)

When the sun rises before 7 and sets after 5, then it can go mild.
The
mildness will at least feel springlike then!

Nick

Just a little further back east on the 00z ECM. Less so, ironically,
on the gfs, but both models are showing milder at 10 days now and are
both more inclined to move the atlantic through. Tentative, but are we
seeing the longer term end to the cold. Here's hoping, but forecasting
hope doesn't lead to success - as amply demonstrated on another
thread!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

15-day 12z ens for The Netherlands. They *suggest* a warming and no
return to the cold at 10 days+. This is probably colder than we are
likely to experience as well. It *could* spell the death knell for a
return of the cold.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

In addition, the Jet is showing some signs of abandoning its southerly
path.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn22814.png

Not enough confidence yet, but by later this evening, there's a chance
that I'll be 75% convinced of a longer term change.

In the meantime, I'm really looking forward to 10C in Dawlish over the
weekend........but I'm not looking forward to hosing the dog clean and
drying him after every walk again (he's probably not that keen on it
either!)!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

gfs 12z shows a distinct lack of warmth at 10 days. (sigh).
==========

I didn't have you down as a sucker Paul :-))

Will

Lack of warmth Will, but not snowy though, just raw, damp & cold, the
stuff that the rheumatics love :-(

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message
...
Will Hand wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Jan 11, 10:32 am, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 11, 8:28 am, Dawlish wrote:





On Jan 10, 8:05 pm, Nick wrote:

On Jan 10, 7:51 pm, "Graham" wrote:

Is it my imagination, or is the ECM just beginning to think
about
showing the Atlantic making ever-so-slow progress towards
breaching
that Scandinavian block?

Yes please, let's hope so

Graham

Nah, 20 Jan is too early :-)

When the sun rises before 7 and sets after 5, then it can go mild.
The
mildness will at least feel springlike then!

Nick

Just a little further back east on the 00z ECM. Less so, ironically,
on the gfs, but both models are showing milder at 10 days now and are
both more inclined to move the atlantic through. Tentative, but are we
seeing the longer term end to the cold. Here's hoping, but forecasting
hope doesn't lead to success - as amply demonstrated on another
thread!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

15-day 12z ens for The Netherlands. They *suggest* a warming and no
return to the cold at 10 days+. This is probably colder than we are
likely to experience as well. It *could* spell the death knell for a
return of the cold.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

In addition, the Jet is showing some signs of abandoning its southerly
path.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn22814.png

Not enough confidence yet, but by later this evening, there's a chance
that I'll be 75% convinced of a longer term change.

In the meantime, I'm really looking forward to 10C in Dawlish over the
weekend........but I'm not looking forward to hosing the dog clean and
drying him after every walk again (he's probably not that keen on it
either!)!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

gfs 12z shows a distinct lack of warmth at 10 days. (sigh).
==========

I didn't have you down as a sucker Paul :-))

Will

Lack of warmth Will, but not snowy though, just raw, damp & cold, the
stuff that the rheumatics love :-(


Ah but some people may keep their existing snow cover. Will take a lot of
shifting, I reckon I'll still have some at the end of January.
I agree though, I'd prefer -5C and sunny and dry powder, but we don't live
in Scandinavia!

Will
--

On Jan 11, 5:56*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message

...





Will Hand wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message
....
On Jan 11, 10:32 am, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 11, 8:28 am, Dawlish wrote:

On Jan 10, 8:05 pm, Nick wrote:

On Jan 10, 7:51 pm, "Graham" wrote:

Is it my imagination, or is the ECM just beginning to think
about
showing the Atlantic making ever-so-slow progress towards
breaching
that Scandinavian block?

Yes please, let's hope so

Graham

Nah, 20 Jan is too early :-)

When the sun rises before 7 and sets after 5, then it can go mild..
The
mildness will at least feel springlike then!

Nick

Just a little further back east on the 00z ECM. Less so, ironically,
on the gfs, but both models are showing milder at 10 days now and are
both more inclined to move the atlantic through. Tentative, but are we
seeing the longer term end to the cold. Here's hoping, but forecasting
hope doesn't lead to success - as amply demonstrated on another
thread!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

15-day 12z ens for The Netherlands. They *suggest* a warming and no
return to the cold at 10 days+. This is probably colder than we are
likely to experience as well. It *could* spell the death knell for a
return of the cold.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

In addition, the Jet is showing some signs of abandoning its southerly
path.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn22814.png

Not enough confidence yet, but by later this evening, there's a chance
that I'll be 75% convinced of a longer term change.

In the meantime, I'm really looking forward to 10C in Dawlish over the
weekend........but I'm not looking forward to hosing the dog clean and
drying him after every walk again (he's probably not that keen on it
either!)!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

gfs 12z shows a distinct lack of warmth at 10 days. (sigh).
==========

I didn't have you down as a sucker Paul :-))

Will

Lack of warmth Will, but not snowy though, just raw, damp & cold, the
stuff that the rheumatics love :-(

Ah but some people may keep their existing snow cover. Will take a lot of
shifting, I reckon I'll still have some at the end of January.
I agree though, I'd prefer -5C and sunny and dry powder, but we don't live
in Scandinavia!

Will
--- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Not here. Slightly sleety rain shower ATM: snow tomorrow - really not
sure how much and for how long, then rain and all traces of snow gone
by the weekend. Someone promised me snow if I remember right and I
have a long memory! *))

Seriously, it's another very difficult forecast closer to sea level;
intensity, duration and even type of precipitation. Good luck to the
desk forecasters tomorrow coz you'll need it. It's going to be a very
interesting afternoon and evening for everyone in the SW. For
Dartmoor; a much easier forecast - it's just a case of how much snow!

FWIW, one of the more trustworthy pieces of weather lore will be in
action (probably) tomorrow. "If the snow lingers in the hedge bottoms,
it'll take more snow to clear it."