On Jan 13, 7:26*pm, Dawlish wrote:
...at T+240 and next week.

The 12z ECM wants to marshall the Atlantic into moving east and there
are differing positions between the gfs and the ECM about conditions
next week. The gfs is gunning for cold, whereas the ECM, fighting with
the block, is more confident of Atlantic success and by T240 is still
pushing for victory. GEM is providing reinforcement to hold a colder
salient.

Oh! Enough of the military metaphors! Still no agreement, or
consistency. The longer-term re-establishment of the cold is not
certain for me, but then again, neither is the establishment of
Atlantic conditions over the UK at T240. It really is a model
battlefield and there will be ebbs and flows to come before this
outcome is settled; one way, or t'other.

The 00z ECM and 00z gfs doesn't solve much. Colder again from the ECM,
but the 12z ens from yesterday show that ECM solution was a long-shot
warm outlier at 8-10 days. Long term (T240+), there's no real support
for a cold solution, which is odd, but there is enough cold support to
reflect the battleground idea. This has been shown for a few days now
and it just won't go away. Putting it into a cogent forecast would
involve far too many ifs, buts, maybes, Atlantics and easterlies and
it would be very difficult to judge at outcome, but my take, during
the middle of the last third of January and based on the last 2/3 days
model output is that the Atlantic and the eastern high will be using
the UK for a battle for supremacy. At this stage it isn't clear who
will win, but I'd favour cold, rather than mild at the end of the
month - just!.

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

The MetO has a similar outlook at 10 days+ [- I think - it is never
easy to glean their thoughts in that precis and I may have that wrong,
but who really cares? They'll have forgotten all about what they are
saying today in 10-16 days time! it will have been eaten by the
forecast Langoliers! (apologies to Steven King)].

On Jan 14, 9:13*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 13, 7:26*pm, Dawlish wrote:

...at T+240 and next week.

The 12z ECM wants to marshall the Atlantic into moving east and there
are differing positions between the gfs and the ECM about conditions
next week. The gfs is gunning for cold, whereas the ECM, fighting with
the block, is more confident of Atlantic success and by T240 is still
pushing for victory. GEM is providing reinforcement to hold a colder
salient.

Oh! Enough of the military metaphors! Still no agreement, or
consistency. The longer-term re-establishment of the cold is not
certain for me, but then again, neither is the establishment of
Atlantic conditions over the UK at T240. It really is a model
battlefield and there will be ebbs and flows to come before this
outcome is settled; one way, or t'other.

The 00z ECM and 00z gfs doesn't solve much. Colder again from the ECM,
but the 12z ens from yesterday show that ECM solution was a long-shot
warm outlier at 8-10 days. Long term (T240+), there's no real support
for a cold solution, which is odd, but there is enough cold support to
reflect the battleground idea. This has been shown for a few days now
and it just won't go away. Putting it into a cogent forecast would
involve far too many ifs, buts, maybes, Atlantics and easterlies and
it would be very difficult to judge at outcome, but my take, during
the middle of the last third of January and based on the last 2/3 days
model output *is that the Atlantic and the eastern high will be using
the UK for a battle for supremacy. At this stage it isn't clear who
will win, but I'd favour cold, rather than mild at the end of the
month - just!.

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/...semble_forecas...

The MetO has a similar outlook at 10 days+ *[- I think - it is never
easy to glean their thoughts in that precis and I may have that wrong,
but who really cares? They'll have forgotten all about what they are
saying today in 10-16 days time! it will have been eaten by the
forecast Langoliers! (apologies to Steven King)].

gfs 06z: the Atlantic making headway? There's a maybe!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
gfs 06z: the Atlantic making headway? There's a maybe!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

Yes, the operational run doesn't seem to be at all keen on the
easterlies, bringing them in only very briefly and half-heartedly next
week,
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

On Jan 14, 11:00*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
gfs 06z: the Atlantic making headway? There's a maybe!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

Yes, the operational run doesn't seem to be at all keen on the
easterlies, bringing them in only very briefly and half-heartedly next
week,
--
John Hall
* * * * * *"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
* * * * * * from coughing."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

00z ens.

Reflects the bi-model divergence after 8 days. ECM an extreme cold
outlier; gfs milder and closer to the plume. The average, again, does
not shout extended cold after a cooling next week.

On Jan 14, 11:00*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
gfs 06z: the Atlantic making headway? There's a maybe!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

Yes, the operational run doesn't seem to be at all keen on the
easterlies, bringing them in only very briefly and half-heartedly next
week,
--
John Hall
* * * * * *"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
* * * * * * from coughing."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

It seems to be a bit in the balance, with maybe as little as a couple
of hundred miles making the difference between cold SE and
(presumably) very mild SSW winds. Could that translate to a
temperature difference of almost 10C on the ground?

Nick