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#1
January 15th 10, 12:36 PM
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Sucker's Gap. (Mark 3; one for the pedants!)
00z ENS don't rule out the return of colder conditions at 10 days, but
the odds are heavily stacked against that happening with those ens. However, the gfs and the ECM were warm outliers at 10 days; the gfs was the warmest single member for London on the 25th of the month. My own forecasting technique uses consistency over time and model agreement in actually forecasting at 10 days, however, rather than the ens spaghetti. One more set of milder operational runs would do me. |
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#2
January 15th 10, 12:43 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Sucker's Gap. (Mark 3; one for the pedants!)
"Dawlish" wrote in message ... 00z ENS don't rule out the return of colder conditions at 10 days, but the odds are heavily stacked against that happening with those ens. However, the gfs and the ECM were warm outliers at 10 days; the gfs was the warmest single member for London on the 25th of the month. My own forecasting technique uses consistency over time and model agreement in actually forecasting at 10 days, however, rather than the ens spaghetti. One more set of milder operational runs would do me. SUCKER! :-) Will -- |
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#3
January 15th 10, 12:46 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Sucker's Gap. (Mark 3; one for the pedants!)
On Jan 15, 12:43*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message ... 00z ENS don't rule out the return of colder conditions at 10 days, but the odds are heavily stacked against that happening with those ens. However, the gfs and the ECM were warm outliers at 10 days; the gfs was the warmest single member for London on the 25th of the month. My own forecasting technique uses consistency over time and model agreement in actually forecasting at 10 days, however, rather than the ens spaghetti. One more set of milder operational runs would do me. SUCKER! :-) Will -- *)) |
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#4
January 15th 10, 12:59 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Sucker's Gap. (Mark 3; one for the pedants!)
On Fri, 15 Jan 2010 12:43:12 -0000, "Will Hand"
wrote: "Dawlish" wrote in message ... 00z ENS don't rule out the return of colder conditions at 10 days, but the odds are heavily stacked against that happening with those ens. However, the gfs and the ECM were warm outliers at 10 days; the gfs was the warmest single member for London on the 25th of the month. My own forecasting technique uses consistency over time and model agreement in actually forecasting at 10 days, however, rather than the ens spaghetti. One more set of milder operational runs would do me. SUCKER! :-) Will My laymans assesment of what is going on based on my limited knowledge of the models on Wetterzentrale, the eratic jet stream, Will's optimism, Dawlish's hedge sitting and Rob Mcelwee's winking is that a return to established cold is not too far away. (-: Mark Southend |
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#5
January 15th 10, 01:30 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Sucker's Gap. (Mark 3; one for the pedants!)
"Will Hand" wrote in message ... "Dawlish" wrote in message ... 00z ENS don't rule out the return of colder conditions at 10 days, but the odds are heavily stacked against that happening with those ens. However, the gfs and the ECM were warm outliers at 10 days; the gfs was the warmest single member for London on the 25th of the month. My own forecasting technique uses consistency over time and model agreement in actually forecasting at 10 days, however, rather than the ens spaghetti. One more set of milder operational runs would do me. SUCKER! :-) Will -- At least you've dropped the gap. |
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