On Feb 2, 5:02*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Jan 23, 8:36 pm, Dawlish wrote:

The ECM has finally come into line with the gfs and has abandoned the
really cold northerly. Now the two models have enough agreement, to go
with the consistency that the gfs has shown, to lead me to the
following 10-day forecast.

**At T240 on 2nd Feb, the weather in the UK will be controlled by an
anticyclone close enough to produce a flow over the UK mainly between
south-west and north-west i.e, with an Atlantic origin. Temperatures
will be reasonably close to average for the start of February, but
there may be night frosts if the skies clear. The anticyclone, whilst
located in mid-Atlantic for a while will have produced a transient
northerly in the run-up to the 2nd Feb, but will have moved south-
eastwards to kill this by the 2nd, introducing the Atlantic air. Any
wintriness at this forecast outcome time, will be limited to the
hills, with rain at lower levels.**

Time to analyse this one. The temperatures are just about right, as
are the wind directions and the weather conditions are just about
right, except for some lowland snow today in central scotland.

The models from 10 days ago pointed to this spike in the temperatures
quite well. The northerly certainly happened, but was more potent than
I expected. I certainly got the recent movement of the high correct,
but it's the final position that I've got wrong. The high has moved
further south and east than I was expecting and today sits as a faux-
European high. Viewing today's chart out of context, one could be
forgiven for thinking we were in a zonal spell of weather, but that's
patently not the case and it isn't what I was thinking when I put this
forecast together.

10 days ago, forecasting the weather today was really not easy; we do
have a milder day, for most and after what had come before and to
forecast this after what was being shown on the charts 10 days ago (an
easterly, then a northerly), probably deserves credit and though I've
done well to get much of this forecast right, it's despite the high
pressure not controlling our weather - as I said it would.

Forecasting at 10 days is never easy, but the lack of control of our
weather today leads me to feel that this forecast is not accurate
enough. I could be persuaded to change my mind, but I'm minded to mark
this down as a miss. Others can judge as they will.
===================

I'm happy to give this 55% Paul!

Will
--

I might put it a little higher Will, but I don't think it's at the
level at which I can call it a successful one!

another failure.

joe b 1
dawlish 0


Dawlish wrote:
The ECM has finally come into line with the gfs and has abandoned the
really cold northerly. Now the two models have enough agreement, to go
with the consistency that the gfs has shown, to lead me to the
following 10-day forecast.

**At T240 on 2nd Feb, the weather in the UK will be controlled by an
anticyclone close enough to produce a flow over the UK mainly between
south-west and north-west i.e, with an Atlantic origin. Temperatures
will be reasonably close to average for the start of February, but
there may be night frosts if the skies clear. The anticyclone, whilst
located in mid-Atlantic for a while will have produced a transient
northerly in the run-up to the 2nd Feb, but will have moved south-
eastwards to kill this by the 2nd, introducing the Atlantic air. Any
wintriness at this forecast outcome time, will be limited to the
hills, with rain at lower levels.**

I don't see the really cold air coming from any direction for any
length of time over the next 10 days. The CET will continue to recover
to the end of the month (Philip has -3.6C to the 22nd), but slowly, as
temperatures over the next 10 days will be generally below average
more times than we have milder weather and January will end up a cold
month overall.

It'll be colder this week for a few days with a short-lived easterly
before turning milder, then there will be a northerly for a few days,
but without a particularly cold source, it won't produce a great deal
more than upland snow. (Northerlies just ain't what they used to be!).
Then we have the return to pretty average temperatures at the start of
February.

That's my take on it! *))