Looks like two were right last week, winter over

Looking more like a 1981-82 now with a mild February to follow, well at
least we won't hear anymore of the silly comments like the coldest winter
since 1963

Overnight snow showers here giving around a 1cm.

Temp currently -0.5c

Graham

"Graham" wrote in message
...
Looks like two were right last week, winter over

Looking more like a 1981-82 now with a mild February to follow, well at
least we won't hear anymore of the silly comments like the coldest winter
since 1963


Graham

It's far from being a silly comment for Scotland that this could be the
coldest winter since 1962/63.
And even if it's 1ºC above average, it'll still be the coldest since
1978/79.
You place a bit too much faith in the models out to 15 days and faith in
something else (though I know not what) beyond this. February is 29 days
long and it's likely to start on a cool note for at least six days as far as
Scotland and the north of England is concerned. Hints of a slightly milder
spell beyond that, but that's a week away and from what I see the lows may
well flirt with the UK, rather than zip past us to Norway... keeping us in
the north out of a south westerly feed. Predicting very mild weather for the
second half of February is guesswork at this range - dare I say "silly".
Alex

On Jan 31, 12:35*pm, "Alex Stephens Jr"
wrote:
"Graham" wrote in message

...

Looks like two were right last week, winter over

Looking more like a 1981-82 now with a mild February to follow, well at
least we won't hear anymore of the silly comments like the coldest winter
since 1963

Graham

It's far from being a silly comment for Scotland that this could be the
coldest winter since 1962/63.
And even if it's 1ºC above average, it'll still be the coldest since
1978/79.
You place a bit too much faith in the models out to 15 days and faith in
something else (though I know not what) beyond this. February is 29 days
long and it's likely to start on a cool note for at least six days as far as
Scotland and the north of England is concerned. Hints of a slightly milder
spell beyond that, but that's a week away and from what I see the lows may
well flirt with the UK, rather than zip past us to Norway... keeping us in
the north out of a south westerly feed. Predicting very mild weather for the
second half of February is guesswork at this range - dare I say "silly".
Alex

BBC Countrytracks forecast stated that Dec/Jan was the coldest in
Scotland "on record"! Remains to be seen.

"Alex Stephens Jr" wrote in message
February is 29 days long
well, nearly :P

It's far from being a silly comment for Scotland that this could be the
coldest winter since 1962/63.
And even if it's 1ºC above average, it'll still be the coldest since
1978/79.
You place a bit too much faith in the models out to 15 days and faith in
something else (though I know not what) beyond this. February is 29 days
long and it's likely to start on a cool note for at least six days as far
as Scotland and the north of England is concerned. Hints of a slightly
milder spell beyond that, but that's a week away and from what I see the
lows may well flirt with the UK, rather than zip past us to Norway...
keeping us in the north out of a south westerly feed. Predicting very mild
weather for the second half of February is guesswork at this range - dare
I say "silly".

Alex my comments where for my area the North Midlands and as we had a more
severe winter than you in 1963, it annoys me when people in the media say
this winter in colder than 63!
I know it's possible for Scotland but not here!!
Also I don't recall me saying this coming February was going to be very
mild, now that would be silly

Graham

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Jan 31, 12:35 pm, "Alex Stephens Jr"
wrote:
"Graham" wrote in message

...


BBC Countrytracks forecast stated that Dec/Jan was the coldest in
Scotland "on record"! Remains to be seen.

It's not the case for the whole of Scotland, though perhaps it has been with
most?
December/January 1981/82 was slightly colder in this area (0.4ºC cooler).
And it looks to have been fractionally cooler for Glasgow and Edinburgh too
as far as I can tell. So I'm not sure if that's just a bit of headline
grabbing from the BBC / met office.
December/January 1939/40 is another candidate for being cooler.
Calling Mr Eden.
Alex.

"Graham" wrote in message
...


It's far from being a silly comment for Scotland that this could be the
coldest winter since 1962/63.
And even if it's 1ºC above average, it'll still be the coldest since
1978/79.
You place a bit too much faith in the models out to 15 days and faith in
something else (though I know not what) beyond this. February is 29 days
long and it's likely to start on a cool note for at least six days as far
as Scotland and the north of England is concerned. Hints of a slightly
milder spell beyond that, but that's a week away and from what I see the
lows may well flirt with the UK, rather than zip past us to Norway...
keeping us in the north out of a south westerly feed. Predicting very
mild weather for the second half of February is guesswork at this range -
dare I say "silly".

Alex my comments where for my area the North Midlands and as we had a more
severe winter than you in 1963, it annoys me when people in the media say
this winter in colder than 63!
I know it's possible for Scotland but not here!!
Also I don't recall me saying this coming February was going to be very
mild, now that would be silly

Graham


I wasn't taking you up on the fact it might be cooler than 62/63, that seems
very unlikely even in this part of Scotland, we would need another month
with an average below zero, but even this isn't silly.
Your original point was that it was silly to suggest it may be the coolest
SINCE 1962/63. Perhaps that is the case for the midlands also? But not for
anywhere north of your region I would guess.
Alex.

I wasn't taking you up on the fact it might be cooler than 62/63, that
seems very unlikely even in this part of Scotland, we would need another
month with an average below zero, but even this isn't silly.
Your original point was that it was silly to suggest it may be the coolest
SINCE 1962/63. Perhaps that is the case for the midlands also? But not for
anywhere north of your region I would guess.

I know it's been a lot colder in Scotland than it as down here.
I should have said the silly comments from the English Media, sorry Alex!
One such comment on our local radio station after only 15 days of January
said 'it's now official, it's the coldest Winter for 47 years', how on earth
you can make a statement like that with half the Winter remaining I don't
know!
More annoying is our local stations and TV had completely forgot about 1979,
which in this area was a much more snowy winter and also very cold.

Graham

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
BBC Countrytracks forecast stated that Dec/Jan was the coldest in
Scotland "on record"! Remains to be seen.

By "on record" they may mean in the Met Office areal temperature series,
which I think for some reason only go back to 1914. Even so, it would be
a little surprising.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

"Graham" wrote in message
...


I wasn't taking you up on the fact it might be cooler than 62/63, that
seems very unlikely even in this part of Scotland, we would need another
month with an average below zero, but even this isn't silly.
Your original point was that it was silly to suggest it may be the
coolest SINCE 1962/63. Perhaps that is the case for the midlands also?
But not for anywhere north of your region I would guess.

I know it's been a lot colder in Scotland than it as down here.
I should have said the silly comments from the English Media, sorry Alex!
One such comment on our local radio station after only 15 days of January
said 'it's now official, it's the coldest Winter for 47 years', how on
earth you can make a statement like that with half the Winter remaining I
don't know!
More annoying is our local stations and TV had completely forgot about
1979, which in this area was a much more snowy winter and also very cold.

Graham

Yes, the 1978/79 winter is being overlooked, it was almost as cold here as
the winter of 1962/63. And snow wise it had larger falls, but none quite as
long lasting as the present winter has had already.
I know the winter of 1962/63 was colder in the midlands than in this part of
Scotland, but still, it was a very cold winter here too.
The five coldest winters in this part of Scotland (Lanarkshire) since 1958
were;

1962/63 0.0ºC
1978/79 0.2ºC
1981/82 1.0ºC
1977/78 1.1ºC
1995/96 1.5ºC

2009/10 -0.1ºC *2/3rds completed, February LTA is +3.4ºC

The winter of 1946/47 is likely to have had a mean of around -0.4ºC (+/-
0.2ºC) in this area by my estimation and that was the coldest here since the
start of the 1900's. The winters of 1916/17 and 1939/1940 will have been
cold too, i've no figures to back this up for this area but I'm confident
they can't match 1946/47.

I think the first week of February is forecast to have a mean around zero in
this area according to forecasts/models. Given that's the case, the
remainder of February would have to be 2.7ºC above average not to appear in
the top 5 listed above. That's not silly either, but it's very unlikely as
well.

Alex.