On Feb 2, 9:36*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
There's some agreement this morning John; both the gfs and the ECM now
agree on us *not* having easterlies at 10 days!! shakes head

snip



In years of Internet model watching and a dreadful case of OCD in
monitoring them ( **)) *), I think I can confidently say that I've
never seen such a level of inconsistency, from all the major models,
over a 4-day period. That's why 10-day forecasting is *so* difficult
and is simply not possible, with reasonable accuracy, most of the
time.

Yep. The only model out of the three I monitor not to have done a volte
face between yesterday's 12Z run and today 00Z in the UKMO, which still
brings in an easterly this weekend.
--
John Hall
* * * * * *"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
* * * * * * from coughing."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

.........and it could still be correct.

On Feb 2, 9:36*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
There's some agreement this morning John; both the gfs and the ECM now
agree on us *not* having easterlies at 10 days!! shakes head

snip



In years of Internet model watching and a dreadful case of OCD in
monitoring them ( **)) *), I think I can confidently say that I've
never seen such a level of inconsistency, from all the major models,
over a 4-day period. That's why 10-day forecasting is *so* difficult
and is simply not possible, with reasonable accuracy, most of the
time.

Yep. The only model out of the three I monitor not to have done a volte
face between yesterday's 12Z run and today 00Z in the UKMO, which still
brings in an easterly this weekend.
--
John Hall
* * * * * *"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
* * * * * * from coughing."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

The GFS and ECM look absolutely horrible with no redeeming features
whatsoever. As well as mild and wet, they look like an SAD sufferer's
nightmare with the lows in just the wrong place - meaning we seem to
be stuck in damp, gloomy, mild SSW winds from now to what seems like
late next week - seems possible we won't see the sun at all in the
south of England for at least a week if they come off. If we can't get
the cold I'd prefer it goes "the other way" and get full zonality to
be honest.

Nick

In article
,
Nick writes:
The GFS and ECM look absolutely horrible with no redeeming features
whatsoever. As well as mild and wet, they look like an SAD sufferer's
nightmare with the lows in just the wrong place - meaning we seem to
be stuck in damp, gloomy, mild SSW winds from now to what seems like
late next week - seems possible we won't see the sun at all in the
south of England for at least a week if they come off. If we can't get
the cold I'd prefer it goes "the other way" and get full zonality to
be honest.

The 00Z ECM operational run was on the mild side, going by the ensemble
data he

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverw...m.asp?r=midden

But the ensemble average certainly isn't cold, remembering that this
data is for the Netherlands. Seeing the "Control" run veer off into an
icy Wonderland, it's interesting that the 06Z GFS Control does something
very similar, when its operational run is one of the mildest ensemble
members:

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

(And as with the ECM, the ensemble mean is pretty average.) So maybe
it's such a knife-edge situation that the extra resolution of the
operational runs is really important in getting the correct (in this
case mild, it seems) solution?
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)