Into February now and time is growing shorter and the days longer, in
which to finally get the return of the deep cold. the sucker's chasm
is now a sucker's.....well it's not happened really.

The UKMO now shows milder conditions after the weekend, as does the
gfs (though the gfs shows colder with a northerly further out). I
sense another model push by the Atlantic, but whether this one will
prove enough to become reality (or not!) may take until the weekend to
become clear. it may take longer, of course, or the next 4 gfs runs
may be backed by the gfs, allowing a pattern to become clear, but
after the twisting tumbles of the last few days, one has to think that
the models have not settled yet.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW144-21.GIF?02-17

The ECM ensembles show the weather no colder than it is now well into
the future, though the 00z ECM and the 00z gfs operationals, this
morning, were on the warmer side of the ensemble mean.

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

The SSW event appears to be having little effect and it first peaked
10 days ago. Maybe the El Nino will have an effect later in February.
The jet stays stubbornly south of the UK, which gives the cold a fair
old chance. I'd go 2/1 colder weather at 10 days, but the models have
not shown the consistency to forecast that with confidence.

On Feb 2, 5:42*pm, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:

After last week's flip from severe cold to mild which has turned out to be
correct, I would give it an even chance of showing the cold scenario in a
week's time, but not before. A week at a time is the only believable time
frame.
Dave

Most of the time Dave, I agree with you. Forecasting at 10 days is
still beyond us most of the time. It's recognising the few occasions
where the models *are* predicting the actual outcome which is the key!
*))

PS I think evens cold at 7 days is very poor odds!

On 2 Feb, 18:15, "Alex Stephens Jr"
wrote:

It's snowed on four of the last five days here and more is forecast for
tomorrow night and Thursday morning. So potentially snow on six out of seven
days this week. The mean temperature for the last five days is sub zero
here. By any stretch of the imagination it's not mild. In fact I think it's
both colder and snowier than the GFS or met office forecast for this time 7
days ago.
The suckers gap never really existed except in the permanent search for a
siberian easterly forecast 7 days in advance.
I'm not sure whether people are trying to see 2 weeks in advance or beyond
the edge of their nose sometimes.
;-)
Alex, somewhere up north.- Hide quoted text -

Hi, Alex,
Same here, they do make me smile sometimes.
Ken
Copley - not so far north but far enough, thank goodness!

"Ken Cook" wrote in message
...
On 2 Feb, 18:15, "Alex Stephens Jr"
wrote:

It's snowed on four of the last five days here and more is forecast for
tomorrow night and Thursday morning. So potentially snow on six out of
seven
days this week. The mean temperature for the last five days is sub zero
here. By any stretch of the imagination it's not mild. In fact I think
it's
both colder and snowier than the GFS or met office forecast for this time
7
days ago.
The suckers gap never really existed except in the permanent search for a
siberian easterly forecast 7 days in advance.
I'm not sure whether people are trying to see 2 weeks in advance or
beyond
the edge of their nose sometimes.
;-)
Alex, somewhere up north.- Hide quoted text -

Hi, Alex,
Same here, they do make me smile sometimes.
Ken
Copley - not so far north but far enough, thank goodness!


LOL

The Atlantic gives me more snow than any easterly usually.
Even in the last spell the easterly delivered only 7-8cm whereas as soon as
the Atlantic air started to move in we got 22cm. The snow does last longer
in easterlies though admittedly.

At least being out west I can rotate the map and pretend that west is the
new north especially as it is uphill to my house as well!
:-)

Will (Haytor, Devon)
--

On Feb 2, 6:17*pm, Ken Cook wrote:
On 2 Feb, 18:15, "Alex Stephens Jr"
wrote:



It's snowed on four of the last five days here and more is forecast for
tomorrow night and Thursday morning. So potentially snow on six out of seven
days this week. The mean temperature for the last five days is sub zero
here. By any stretch of the imagination it's not mild. In fact I think it's
both colder and snowier than the GFS or met office forecast for this time 7
days ago.
The suckers gap never really existed except in the permanent search for a
siberian easterly forecast 7 days in advance.
I'm not sure whether people are trying to see 2 weeks in advance or beyond
the edge of their nose sometimes.
;-)
Alex, somewhere up north.- Hide quoted text -

Hi, Alex,
Same here, they do make me smile sometimes.
Ken
Copley - not so far north but far enough, thank goodness!

*))

OK, I suppose if that low towards the end of the ECM 12z run anchors
itself over iceland and the high were to sink southwards, as shown,
then the present set of mild/cold battles will be over. The trouble is
that is shown there at T+240! The odds have lengthened a little again
on cold at T240, but confidence remains below forecast levels.

will, whats your take on the models?
its seems to be changing hour by hour..

mild win or cold win?

cheers

Will Hand wrote:

"Ken Cook" wrote in message
...
On 2 Feb, 18:15, "Alex Stephens Jr"
wrote:

It's snowed on four of the last five days here and more is forecast for
tomorrow night and Thursday morning. So potentially snow on six out
of seven
days this week. The mean temperature for the last five days is sub zero
here. By any stretch of the imagination it's not mild. In fact I
think it's
both colder and snowier than the GFS or met office forecast for this
time 7
days ago.
The suckers gap never really existed except in the permanent search
for a
siberian easterly forecast 7 days in advance.
I'm not sure whether people are trying to see 2 weeks in advance or
beyond
the edge of their nose sometimes.
;-)
Alex, somewhere up north.- Hide quoted text -

Hi, Alex,
Same here, they do make me smile sometimes.
Ken
Copley - not so far north but far enough, thank goodness!


LOL

The Atlantic gives me more snow than any easterly usually.
Even in the last spell the easterly delivered only 7-8cm whereas as soon
as the Atlantic air started to move in we got 22cm. The snow does last
longer in easterlies though admittedly.

At least being out west I can rotate the map and pretend that west is
the new north especially as it is uphill to my house as well!
:-)

Will (Haytor, Devon)
--



--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ---

Hi Terry,

As I said in another thread the other day, I see a north-south temperature
divide with mild/cold air battle for a while before the Norwegian vortex
finally relents and we get into an easterly. Not sure of timing but it will
happen, the jet is too far south for zonal pattern to become established.

Best I can do!

Will
--


"TT" wrote in message
...

will, whats your take on the models?
its seems to be changing hour by hour..

mild win or cold win?

cheers

Will Hand wrote:

"Ken Cook" wrote in message
...
On 2 Feb, 18:15, "Alex Stephens Jr"
wrote:

It's snowed on four of the last five days here and more is forecast for
tomorrow night and Thursday morning. So potentially snow on six out of
seven
days this week. The mean temperature for the last five days is sub zero
here. By any stretch of the imagination it's not mild. In fact I think
it's
both colder and snowier than the GFS or met office forecast for this
time 7
days ago.
The suckers gap never really existed except in the permanent search for
a
siberian easterly forecast 7 days in advance.
I'm not sure whether people are trying to see 2 weeks in advance or
beyond
the edge of their nose sometimes.
;-)
Alex, somewhere up north.- Hide quoted text -

Hi, Alex,
Same here, they do make me smile sometimes.
Ken
Copley - not so far north but far enough, thank goodness!


LOL

The Atlantic gives me more snow than any easterly usually.
Even in the last spell the easterly delivered only 7-8cm whereas as soon
as the Atlantic air started to move in we got 22cm. The snow does last
longer in easterlies though admittedly.

At least being out west I can rotate the map and pretend that west is the
new north especially as it is uphill to my house as well!
:-)

Will (Haytor, Devon)
--



--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ---

cheers will...

Will Hand wrote:
Hi Terry,

As I said in another thread the other day, I see a north-south
temperature divide with mild/cold air battle for a while before the
Norwegian vortex finally relents and we get into an easterly. Not sure
of timing but it will happen, the jet is too far south for zonal pattern
to become established.

Best I can do!

Will
--


"TT" wrote in message
...

will, whats your take on the models?
its seems to be changing hour by hour..

mild win or cold win?

cheers

"Ken Cook" wrote in message
...
On 2 Feb, 18:15, "Alex Stephens Jr"
wrote:

It's snowed on four of the last five days here and more is forecast for
tomorrow night and Thursday morning. So potentially snow on six out of
seven
days this week. The mean temperature for the last five days is sub zero
here. By any stretch of the imagination it's not mild. In fact I think
it's
both colder and snowier than the GFS or met office forecast for this time
7
days ago.
The suckers gap never really existed except in the permanent search for a
siberian easterly forecast 7 days in advance.
I'm not sure whether people are trying to see 2 weeks in advance or
beyond
the edge of their nose sometimes.
;-)
Alex, somewhere up north.- Hide quoted text -

Hi, Alex,
Same here, they do make me smile sometimes.
Ken
Copley - not so far north but far enough, thank goodness!

I wonder what grass looks like?

Phil
From even further north

On Feb 2, 10:34*pm, "Phil Gurr" wrote:
"Ken Cook" wrote in message

...





On 2 Feb, 18:15, "Alex Stephens Jr"
wrote:

It's snowed on four of the last five days here and more is forecast for
tomorrow night and Thursday morning. So potentially snow on six out of
seven
days this week. The mean temperature for the last five days is sub zero
here. By any stretch of the imagination it's not mild. In fact I think
it's
both colder and snowier than the GFS or met office forecast for this time
7
days ago.
The suckers gap never really existed except in the permanent search for a
siberian easterly forecast 7 days in advance.
I'm not sure whether people are trying to see 2 weeks in advance or
beyond
the edge of their nose sometimes.
;-)
Alex, somewhere up north.- Hide quoted text -

Hi, Alex,
Same here, they do make me smile sometimes.
Ken
Copley - not so far north but far enough, thank goodness!

I wonder what grass looks like?

Phil
From even further north- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

If it was a bit drier today, you could come and cut mine Phil. Any
time you have withdrawal symptoms, the mower's in the shed. I used it
last week, but as the green stuff is growing apace with yesterday
seeing 11c and today looking like it could match it (9.8C in
Teignmouth ATM).

Well; the outcome certainly wasn't decided yesterday, was it? The ECM
12z and the gfs 06z are now both showing easterlies developing at some
stage; the ECM being much more progressive than the gfs, which brings
them in late this weekend.

There's been no particular advantage in using the ens to divine the
weather in the second third of February, as they are shifting with the
lurches in NWP output. It really doesn't matter whether the rules of
ens watching are followed; tight plume, small spread, ops close to the
mean = confidence - it simply hasn't worked over the last 5 days.
Whatever has shown has been fickle, whatever the shape of the ensemble
and whatever the ensemble mean shows. An impossible time for medium-
tem forecasting and a dreadful time for the models in determining what
the weather could be like at 6 days+.

These are the ECM ens, still showing, from the 12z yesterday; one run
of the model ago: trending milder. They bear very little resemblance
to what is shown this morning:

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

These are the gfs 00z ens for 12 hours later: trending significantly
colder

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

Fascinating to see *all* models failing to deal with the present
situation. All, including the UKMO, have shown major elements of
incapacity over the last 5 days. The verification scores at present
are as high, as usual, with the UKMO coming out top at 5 days, but
there's nothing to show 10-day verification and the recent bout of
hesitancy at 5/6 days has not yet fed through. Even in a few days
time, the output scores are not specific to the UK.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz5.html

Very interesting, but nothing remotely certain!