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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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On 3 Feb, 23:38, TT wrote:
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...p?partner=accu... --- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: --- He seems to make a lot more sense than those who are determined that we're all going to fry or drown next week/year/century... CK |
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On Feb 4, 8:17*am, Natsman wrote:
On 3 Feb, 23:38, TT wrote: http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...p?partner=accu.... --- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: --- He seems to make a lot more sense than those who are determined that we're all going to fry or drown next week/year/century... CK This should make anyone think twice before praising Joe’s LRFs in the future. I researched his USA forecasts for 4 years, looked at the actual outcomes, using the NOAA data and then compared the two in a commentary. His 4 forecasts were next to useless. It’s a long read, but I'd love to hear comments about this man's LRF prowess following this analysis. If you don't believe me: look at the forecasts and the outcomes yourself. If anyone lionises Joe's LRF ability after this, they are a bigger charlatan than he is. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?repor...d=Get+R eport Joe *******i USA Forecasting record. 2005/6-2008/9 2005/6. Forecast for the Eastern USA. A teeth-chattering, cold and snowy winter is predicted for the Eastern U.S. starting in December. And more snow and cold are on tap for the start of 2006, forecasters say. AccuWeather meteorologist Joe *******i said the winter forecast calls for colder than normal temperatures and above normal snowfall for the eastern Great Lakes regions. *******i bases his prediction on, among other factors, an active hurricane season. Based on the 2005 hurricane season, and other similar "hyper-hurricane" seasons in 1933, 1969 and 1995, *******i concluded that the winters that followed each of those seasons were typically cold and snowy in the Northeast. Actual Outcome (NOAA) December-February temperatures were much above average for the nation, with most states, especially those in the central U.S., averaging warmer than the long-term mean. However, Accuweather, on its site, chose to concentrate on the last 2 weeks of the winter, when reporting to its clients; Spin from Accuweather. Beginning February, 4, 2005, Joe *******i consistently predicted a dramatic change to colder weather for the Midwest and Northeast, to begin about February 18. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service predicted normal temperatures for that period. The price of April natural gas bottomed out at $5.987 on February 18, but then the weather turned colder as Joe had predicted. By March 9 the price had risen to $6.880 due to increased demand. Joe's clients had two weeks of advance warning of this opportunity. Commentary. The winter was the opposite of what *******i had predicted. It was a warm winter. The Accuweather spin is very typical of what these people do to gain business. 2006/7 Forecast: *******i sums up his expectations for the upcoming December-to- February period this way: "The eastern U.S. will experience a colder- than-normal winter overall. The area from the eastern and central Great Lakes to the south-central and south-western U.S. will experience near-normal winter temperatures. The region that stretches from the western Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest will likely see above-normal temperatures." Actual Outcome (NOAA): Winter: December-February temperatures were near much above average for the nation ranking 5th warmest on record. A record warm January dominated the winter average. For information on temperature records during the season, please go to NCDC's Extremes page. Commentary. The winter was the opposite of the cold winter that *******i had predicted. The USA winter was warmer than average. 2007/8 Forecast: JOE *******I’S ACCUWEATHER.COM WINTER FORECAST The extended winter forecast for the months of November through March calls for a cooler than normal start and end but the traditional winter months, December through February, may be one of the top 10 warmest winters ever for the south-eastern United States. The heat will be centered over the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. For the nation as a whole, this winter will be warmer than last winter; especially in the second half of January and February when last winter season was at its coldest. When looking at the past three winters, we find that population weighted, this may be as warm as the 1998-99 winter and the 2001-02 winters. Unlike the winter of 2005-06 and last winter, where significant shots of cold and snow showed up in major areas during 35-50% of the winter months, this winter may have over 75% of the days above normal in most of the nation southeast of line from the Great Lakes to the Southwest. The only signal for below normal is over the Pacific Northwest. Outcome: November 14th warmest November on record (1895-2006). Fourth warmest November for the Northeast region. Four states (Connecticut, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Rhode Island) were record warmest during November. January 49th warmest January on record (1895-2007). Two states (Delaware and Maryland) were tied for 11th warmest January on record. Nine states were cooler than average, including Colorado and Texas. March For the contiguous United States, March 2007 was the second warmest such month on record (based on preliminary data), 5.6°F (3.1°C) warmer than the 20th century mean of 42.5°F (5.8°C). Only March 1910 was warmer in the 113-year national record. Commentary: Completely the opposite of what *******i predicted. The warmth was at the start and end of the winter and the cold was in the middle! 2008/9 Forecast. Last week, AccuWeather's Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe *******i issued his 2008-2009 winter outlook. The outlook calls for an "overall colder and snowier" winter compared to the last "several" winters for the East Coast. About the winter *******i says: "It may be a shock to some when compared with the above-average temperatures of last year in the East. It will put some 'brrrrrr' in the saddle of folks who have not had to deal with such things for a while." Keep reading for more on *******i's outlook. For the weather through the week, see our full forecast. *******i expects winter to assert itself in two blasts -- at the beginning and at the end -- with a pronounced January thaw in the middle. Outcome. For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for December was 32.5°F (0.3°C), which was 0.9°F (0.5°C) below the 20th century mean and ranked as the 35th coolest December on record, based on preliminary data. For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for January was 30.5°F (-0.8°C), which was 0.3°F (0.2°C) below the 20th century mean and ranked as the 49th coolest January on record, based on preliminary data. For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for February was 34.9°F (1.6°C), which was 0.2°F (0.1°C) above the 20th century mean and ranked as the 52nd warmest February on record, based on preliminary data. Commentary: Although the winter overall had very slightly below average temperatures, as Joe had forecast, the pattern was slightly colder at the start, no mild January and above average at the end. Nothing like what he’d forecast. 4 years, 4 poor forecasts for the USA. And he has the gall to criticise the Met Office's forecasts for the UK. *)) Read it this time Natsman and stop telling us how one good forecast makes a good forecaster. |
#4
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On 4 Feb, 08:25, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 4, 8:17*am, Natsman wrote: On 3 Feb, 23:38, TT wrote: http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...p?partner=accu... --- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: --- He seems to make a lot more sense than those who are determined that we're all going to fry or drown next week/year/century... CK This should make anyone think twice before *praising Joe’s LRFs in the future. I researched his USA forecasts for 4 years, looked at the actual outcomes, using the NOAA data and then compared the two in a commentary. His 4 forecasts were next to useless. It’s a long read, but I'd love to hear comments about this man's LRF prowess following this analysis. If you don't believe me: look at the forecasts and the outcomes yourself. If anyone lionises Joe's LRF ability after this, they are a bigger charlatan than he is. *http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?repor...8&month=2&subm... Joe *******i USA Forecasting record. 2005/6-2008/9 2005/6. Forecast for the Eastern USA. A teeth-chattering, cold and snowy winter is predicted for the Eastern U.S. starting in December. And more snow and cold are on tap for the start of 2006, forecasters say. AccuWeather meteorologist Joe *******i said the winter forecast calls for colder than normal temperatures and above normal snowfall for the eastern Great Lakes regions. *******i bases his prediction on, among other factors, an active hurricane season. Based on the 2005 hurricane season, and other similar "hyper-hurricane" seasons in 1933, 1969 and 1995, *******i concluded that the winters that followed each of those seasons were typically cold and snowy in the Northeast. Actual Outcome (NOAA) December-February temperatures were much above average for the nation, with most states, especially those in the central U.S., averaging warmer than the long-term mean. However, Accuweather, on its site, chose to concentrate on the last 2 weeks of the winter, when reporting to its clients; Spin from Accuweather. Beginning February, 4, 2005, Joe *******i consistently predicted a dramatic change to colder weather for the Midwest and Northeast, to begin about February 18. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service predicted normal temperatures for that period. The price of April natural gas bottomed out at $5.987 on February 18, but then the weather turned colder as Joe had predicted. By March 9 the price had risen to $6.880 due to increased demand. Joe's clients had two weeks of advance warning of this opportunity. Commentary. The winter was the opposite of what *******i had predicted. It was a warm winter. The Accuweather spin is very typical of what these people do to gain business. 2006/7 Forecast: *******i sums up his expectations for the upcoming December-to- February period this way: "The eastern U.S. will experience a colder- than-normal winter overall. The area from the eastern and central Great Lakes to the south-central and south-western U.S. will experience near-normal winter temperatures. The region that stretches from the western Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest will likely see above-normal temperatures." Actual Outcome (NOAA): Winter: December-February temperatures were near much above average for the nation ranking 5th warmest on record. A record warm January dominated the winter average. For information on temperature records during the season, please go to NCDC's Extremes page. Commentary. The winter was the opposite of the cold winter that *******i had predicted. The USA winter was warmer than average. 2007/8 Forecast: JOE *******I’S ACCUWEATHER.COM WINTER FORECAST The extended winter forecast for the months of November through March calls for a cooler than normal start and end but the traditional winter months, December through February, may be one of the top 10 warmest winters ever for the south-eastern United States. The heat will be centered over the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. For the nation as a whole, this winter will be warmer than last winter; especially in the second half of January and February when last winter season was at its coldest. When looking at the past three winters, we find that population weighted, this may be as warm as the 1998-99 winter and the 2001-02 winters. Unlike the winter of 2005-06 and last winter, where significant shots of cold and snow showed up in major areas during 35-50% of the winter months, this winter may have over 75% of the days above normal in most of the nation southeast of line from the Great Lakes to the Southwest. The only signal for below normal is over the Pacific Northwest. Outcome: November 14th warmest November on record (1895-2006). Fourth warmest November for the Northeast region. Four states (Connecticut, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Rhode Island) were record warmest during November. January 49th warmest January on record (1895-2007). Two states (Delaware and Maryland) were tied for 11th warmest January on record. Nine states were cooler than average, including Colorado and Texas. March For the contiguous United States, March 2007 was the second warmest such month on record (based on preliminary data), 5.6°F (3.1°C) warmer than the 20th century mean of 42.5°F (5.8°C). Only March 1910 was warmer in the 113-year national record. Commentary: Completely the opposite of what *******i predicted. The warmth was at the start and end of the winter and the cold was in the middle! 2008/9 Forecast. Last week, AccuWeather's Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe *******i issued his 2008-2009 winter outlook. The outlook calls for an "overall colder and snowier" winter compared to the last "several" winters for the East Coast. About the winter *******i says: "It may be a shock to some when compared with the above-average temperatures of last year in the East. It will put some 'brrrrrr' in the saddle of folks who have not had to deal with such things for a while." Keep reading for more on *******i's outlook. For the weather through the week, see our full forecast. *******i expects winter to assert itself in two blasts -- at the beginning and at the end -- with a pronounced January thaw in the middle. Outcome. For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for December was 32.5°F (0.3°C), which was 0.9°F (0.5°C) below the 20th century mean and ranked as the 35th coolest December on record, based on preliminary data. For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for January was 30.5°F (-0.8°C), which was 0.3°F (0.2°C) below the 20th century mean and ranked as the 49th coolest January on record, based on preliminary data. For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for February was 34.9°F (1.6°C), which was 0.2°F (0.1°C) above the 20th century mean and ranked as the 52nd warmest February on record, based on preliminary data. Commentary: Although the winter overall had very slightly below average temperatures, as Joe had forecast, the pattern was slightly colder at the start, no mild January and above average at the end. Nothing like what he’d forecast. 4 years, 4 poor forecasts for the USA. And he has the gall to criticise the Met Office's forecasts for the UK. *)) Read it this time Natsman and stop telling us how one good forecast makes a good forecaster. Interesting - but why have you posted this again - you could have referred Natsman to your earlier post instead of cluttering up the forum |
#5
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On Feb 4, 9:04*am, Scott W wrote:
On 4 Feb, 08:25, Dawlish wrote: On Feb 4, 8:17*am, Natsman wrote: On 3 Feb, 23:38, TT wrote: http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...p?partner=accu... --- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: --- He seems to make a lot more sense than those who are determined that we're all going to fry or drown next week/year/century... CK This should make anyone think twice before *praising Joe’s LRFs in the future. I researched his USA forecasts for 4 years, looked at the actual outcomes, using the NOAA data and then compared the two in a commentary. His 4 forecasts were next to useless. It’s a long read, but I'd love to hear comments about this man's LRF prowess following this analysis. If you don't believe me: look at the forecasts and the outcomes yourself. If anyone lionises Joe's LRF ability after this, they are a bigger charlatan than he is. *http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?repor...8&month=2&subm... Joe *******i USA Forecasting record. 2005/6-2008/9 2005/6. Forecast for the Eastern USA. A teeth-chattering, cold and snowy winter is predicted for the Eastern U.S. starting in December. And more snow and cold are on tap for the start of 2006, forecasters say. AccuWeather meteorologist Joe *******i said the winter forecast calls for colder than normal temperatures and above normal snowfall for the eastern Great Lakes regions. *******i bases his prediction on, among other factors, an active hurricane season. Based on the 2005 hurricane season, and other similar "hyper-hurricane" seasons in 1933, 1969 and 1995, *******i concluded that the winters that followed each of those seasons were typically cold and snowy in the Northeast. Actual Outcome (NOAA) December-February temperatures were much above average for the nation, with most states, especially those in the central U.S., averaging warmer than the long-term mean. However, Accuweather, on its site, chose to concentrate on the last 2 weeks of the winter, when reporting to its clients; Spin from Accuweather. Beginning February, 4, 2005, Joe *******i consistently predicted a dramatic change to colder weather for the Midwest and Northeast, to begin about February 18. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service predicted normal temperatures for that period. The price of April natural gas bottomed out at $5.987 on February 18, but then the weather turned colder as Joe had predicted. By March 9 the price had risen to $6.880 due to increased demand. Joe's clients had two weeks of advance warning of this opportunity. Commentary. The winter was the opposite of what *******i had predicted. It was a warm winter. The Accuweather spin is very typical of what these people do to gain business. 2006/7 Forecast: *******i sums up his expectations for the upcoming December-to- February period this way: "The eastern U.S. will experience a colder- than-normal winter overall. The area from the eastern and central Great Lakes to the south-central and south-western U.S. will experience near-normal winter temperatures. The region that stretches from the western Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest will likely see above-normal temperatures." Actual Outcome (NOAA): Winter: December-February temperatures were near much above average for the nation ranking 5th warmest on record. A record warm January dominated the winter average. For information on temperature records during the season, please go to NCDC's Extremes page. Commentary. The winter was the opposite of the cold winter that *******i had predicted. The USA winter was warmer than average. 2007/8 Forecast: JOE *******I’S ACCUWEATHER.COM WINTER FORECAST The extended winter forecast for the months of November through March calls for a cooler than normal start and end but the traditional winter months, December through February, may be one of the top 10 warmest winters ever for the south-eastern United States. The heat will be centered over the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. For the nation as a whole, this winter will be warmer than last winter; especially in the second half of January and February when last winter season was at its coldest. When looking at the past three winters, we find that population weighted, this may be as warm as the 1998-99 winter and the 2001-02 winters. Unlike the winter of 2005-06 and last winter, where significant shots of cold and snow showed up in major areas during 35-50% of the winter months, this winter may have over 75% of the days above normal in most of the nation southeast of line from the Great Lakes to the Southwest. The only signal for below normal is over the Pacific Northwest. Outcome: November 14th warmest November on record (1895-2006). Fourth warmest November for the Northeast region. Four states (Connecticut, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Rhode Island) were record warmest during November. January 49th warmest January on record (1895-2007). Two states (Delaware and Maryland) were tied for 11th warmest January on record. Nine states were cooler than average, including Colorado and Texas. March For the contiguous United States, March 2007 was the second warmest such month on record (based on preliminary data), 5.6°F (3.1°C) warmer than the 20th century mean of 42.5°F (5.8°C). Only March 1910 was warmer in the 113-year national record. Commentary: Completely the opposite of what *******i predicted. The warmth was at the start and end of the winter and the cold was in the middle! 2008/9 Forecast. Last week, AccuWeather's Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe *******i issued his 2008-2009 winter outlook. The outlook calls for an "overall colder and snowier" winter compared to the last "several" winters for the East Coast. About the winter *******i says: "It may be a shock to some when compared with the above-average temperatures of last year in the East. It will put some 'brrrrrr' in the saddle of folks who have not had to deal with such things for a while." Keep reading for more on *******i's outlook. For the weather through the week, see our full forecast. *******i expects winter to assert itself in two blasts -- at the beginning and at the end -- with a pronounced January thaw in the middle. Outcome. For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for December was 32.5°F (0.3°C), which was 0.9°F (0.5°C) below the 20th century mean and ranked as the 35th coolest December on record, based on preliminary data. For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for January was 30.5°F (-0.8°C), which was 0.3°F (0.2°C) below the 20th century mean and ranked as the 49th coolest January on record, based on preliminary data. For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for February was 34.9°F (1.6°C), which was 0.2°F (0.1°C) above the 20th century mean and ranked as the 52nd warmest February on record, based on preliminary data. Commentary: Although the winter overall had very slightly below average temperatures, as Joe had forecast, the pattern was slightly colder at the start, no mild January and above average at the end. Nothing like what he’d forecast. 4 years, 4 poor forecasts for the USA. And he has the gall to criticise the Met Office's forecasts for the UK. *)) Read it this time Natsman and stop telling us how one good forecast makes a good forecaster. Interesting - but why have you posted this again - you could have referred Natsman to your earlier post instead of cluttering up the forum- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - True, Scott. I did consider that, but this particular poster has obviously forgotten, or he wouldn't keep ploughing this very dead furrow. I was working on the principle that if I post this enough, Natsman and a very small number of others may realise their mistake, take off their blinkers about *******i, separate his views on GW, religion and this forecast and discuss them in context, realising that one forecast never makes a forecaster. Whatever the outcome of this forecast, it also doesn't mean that he talks sense about anything else. Your observation is reasonable though. *)) The stats on his USA winter forecasting hamstring his LRF credentials, but some will always blind themselves to this and to annoyionmg things like facts and track records. I'd rather talk about his winter forecast at outcome and this winter's forecast is going well so far. However, his mixing of religious fervour, politics, climatology and meteorology is nonsensical and leads me to think that the meteorology and climatology behind this forecast is far less of a factor in its publication than his, or his employer's, desire for public attention. |
#6
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On 4 Feb, 09:25, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 4, 8:17*am, Natsman wrote: On 3 Feb, 23:38, TT wrote: http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...p?partner=accu... --- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: --- He seems to make a lot more sense than those who are determined that we're all going to fry or drown next week/year/century... CK This should make anyone think twice before *praising Joe’s LRFs in the future. I researched his USA forecasts for 4 years, looked at the actual outcomes, using the NOAA data and then compared the two in a commentary. His 4 forecasts were next to useless. It’s a long read, but I'd love to hear comments about this man's LRF prowess following this analysis. If you don't believe me: look at the forecasts and the outcomes yourself. If anyone lionises Joe's LRF ability after this, they are a bigger charlatan than he is. *http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?repor...8&month=2&subm... Joe *******i USA Forecasting record. 2005/6-2008/9 2005/6. Forecast for the Eastern USA. A teeth-chattering, cold and snowy winter is predicted for the Eastern U.S. starting in December. And more snow and cold are on tap for the start of 2006, forecasters say. AccuWeather meteorologist Joe *******i said the winter forecast calls for colder than normal temperatures and above normal snowfall for the eastern Great Lakes regions. *******i bases his prediction on, among other factors, an active hurricane season. Based on the 2005 hurricane season, and other similar "hyper-hurricane" seasons in 1933, 1969 and 1995, *******i concluded that the winters that followed each of those seasons were typically cold and snowy in the Northeast. Actual Outcome (NOAA) December-February temperatures were much above average for the nation, with most states, especially those in the central U.S., averaging warmer than the long-term mean. However, Accuweather, on its site, chose to concentrate on the last 2 weeks of the winter, when reporting to its clients; Spin from Accuweather. Beginning February, 4, 2005, Joe *******i consistently predicted a dramatic change to colder weather for the Midwest and Northeast, to begin about February 18. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service predicted normal temperatures for that period. The price of April natural gas bottomed out at $5.987 on February 18, but then the weather turned colder as Joe had predicted. By March 9 the price had risen to $6.880 due to increased demand. Joe's clients had two weeks of advance warning of this opportunity. Commentary. The winter was the opposite of what *******i had predicted. It was a warm winter. The Accuweather spin is very typical of what these people do to gain business. 2006/7 Forecast: *******i sums up his expectations for the upcoming December-to- February period this way: "The eastern U.S. will experience a colder- than-normal winter overall. The area from the eastern and central Great Lakes to the south-central and south-western U.S. will experience near-normal winter temperatures. The region that stretches from the western Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest will likely see above-normal temperatures." Actual Outcome (NOAA): Winter: December-February temperatures were near much above average for the nation ranking 5th warmest on record. A record warm January dominated the winter average. For information on temperature records during the season, please go to NCDC's Extremes page. Commentary. The winter was the opposite of the cold winter that *******i had predicted. The USA winter was warmer than average. 2007/8 Forecast: JOE *******I’S ACCUWEATHER.COM WINTER FORECAST The extended winter forecast for the months of November through March calls for a cooler than normal start and end but the traditional winter months, December through February, may be one of the top 10 warmest winters ever for the south-eastern United States. The heat will be centered over the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. For the nation as a whole, this winter will be warmer than last winter; especially in the second half of January and February when last winter season was at its coldest. When looking at the past three winters, we find that population weighted, this may be as warm as the 1998-99 winter and the 2001-02 winters. Unlike the winter of 2005-06 and last winter, where significant shots of cold and snow showed up in major areas during 35-50% of the winter months, this winter may have over 75% of the days above normal in most of the nation southeast of line from the Great Lakes to the Southwest. The only signal for below normal is over the Pacific Northwest. Outcome: November 14th warmest November on record (1895-2006). Fourth warmest November for the Northeast region. Four states (Connecticut, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Rhode Island) were record warmest during November. January 49th warmest January on record (1895-2007). Two states (Delaware and Maryland) were tied for 11th warmest January on record. Nine states were cooler than average, including Colorado and Texas. March For the contiguous United States, March 2007 was the second warmest such month on record (based on preliminary data), 5.6°F (3.1°C) warmer than the 20th century mean of 42.5°F (5.8°C). Only March 1910 was warmer in the 113-year national record. Commentary: Completely the opposite of what *******i predicted. The warmth was at the start and end of the winter and the cold was in the middle! 2008/9 Forecast. Last week, AccuWeather's Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe *******i issued his 2008-2009 winter outlook. The outlook calls for an "overall colder and snowier" winter compared to the last "several" winters for the East Coast. About the winter *******i says: "It may be a shock to some when compared with the above-average temperatures of last year in the East. It will put some 'brrrrrr' in the saddle of folks who have not had to deal with such things for a while." Keep reading for more on *******i's outlook. For the weather through the week, see our full forecast. *******i expects winter to assert itself in two blasts -- at the beginning and at the end -- with a pronounced January thaw in the middle. Outcome. For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for December was 32.5°F (0.3°C), which was 0.9°F (0.5°C) below the 20th century mean and ranked as the 35th coolest December on record, based on preliminary data. For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for January was 30.5°F (-0.8°C), which was 0.3°F (0.2°C) below the 20th century mean and ranked as the 49th coolest January on record, based on preliminary data. For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for February was 34.9°F (1.6°C), which was 0.2°F (0.1°C) above the 20th century mean and ranked as the 52nd warmest February on record, based on preliminary data. Commentary: Although the winter overall had very slightly below average temperatures, as Joe had forecast, the pattern was slightly colder at the start, no mild January and above average at the end. Nothing like what he’d forecast. 4 years, 4 poor forecasts for the USA. And he has the gall to criticise the Met Office's forecasts for the UK. *)) Read it this time Natsman and stop telling us how one good forecast makes a good forecaster. Don't need to. The debate is all about NOW. The public are concerned about NOW in relation to all the AGW rubbish that's being spouted. JB has a good blog, his forecasts NOW appear to fit in with the public experience, and he doesn't accept AGW as "settled science" and thus he is popular. The AGW alarmism and doomsday forecasts which appear to the public not to be coming to anywhere near fruition, and which are consistently being shot down in flames on a daily basis merely serve to discredit those ideological organisations responsible for the scaremongering. Those same organisations (and their members) are consistently scoring a series of own goals, chiefly because they are now under well deserved global scrutiny. The public, therefore have no faith in them, and less so with each day that passes, which is excellent, and long overdue. Joe *******i is a beacon of good, old fashioned common sense, which sits well with the perception of the public. So you can post all you like, the perception of AGW is slowly becoming what it should have been recognised as being long ago - a discredited, and expensive fraud. CK |
#7
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On Feb 4, 9:54*am, Natsman wrote:
On 4 Feb, 09:25, Dawlish wrote: On Feb 4, 8:17*am, Natsman wrote: On 3 Feb, 23:38, TT wrote: http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...p?partner=accu... --- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: --- He seems to make a lot more sense than those who are determined that we're all going to fry or drown next week/year/century... CK This should make anyone think twice before *praising Joe’s LRFs in the future. I researched his USA forecasts for 4 years, looked at the actual outcomes, using the NOAA data and then compared the two in a commentary. His 4 forecasts were next to useless. It’s a long read, but I'd love to hear comments about this man's LRF prowess following this analysis. If you don't believe me: look at the forecasts and the outcomes yourself. If anyone lionises Joe's LRF ability after this, they are a bigger charlatan than he is. *http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?repor...8&month=2&subm... Joe *******i USA Forecasting record. 2005/6-2008/9 2005/6. Forecast for the Eastern USA. A teeth-chattering, cold and snowy winter is predicted for the Eastern U.S. starting in December. And more snow and cold are on tap for the start of 2006, forecasters say. AccuWeather meteorologist Joe *******i said the winter forecast calls for colder than normal temperatures and above normal snowfall for the eastern Great Lakes regions. *******i bases his prediction on, among other factors, an active hurricane season. Based on the 2005 hurricane season, and other similar "hyper-hurricane" seasons in 1933, 1969 and 1995, *******i concluded that the winters that followed each of those seasons were typically cold and snowy in the Northeast. Actual Outcome (NOAA) December-February temperatures were much above average for the nation, with most states, especially those in the central U.S., averaging warmer than the long-term mean. However, Accuweather, on its site, chose to concentrate on the last 2 weeks of the winter, when reporting to its clients; Spin from Accuweather. Beginning February, 4, 2005, Joe *******i consistently predicted a dramatic change to colder weather for the Midwest and Northeast, to begin about February 18. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service predicted normal temperatures for that period. The price of April natural gas bottomed out at $5.987 on February 18, but then the weather turned colder as Joe had predicted. By March 9 the price had risen to $6.880 due to increased demand. Joe's clients had two weeks of advance warning of this opportunity. Commentary. The winter was the opposite of what *******i had predicted. It was a warm winter. The Accuweather spin is very typical of what these people do to gain business. 2006/7 Forecast: *******i sums up his expectations for the upcoming December-to- February period this way: "The eastern U.S. will experience a colder- than-normal winter overall. The area from the eastern and central Great Lakes to the south-central and south-western U.S. will experience near-normal winter temperatures. The region that stretches from the western Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest will likely see above-normal temperatures." Actual Outcome (NOAA): Winter: December-February temperatures were near much above average for the nation ranking 5th warmest on record. A record warm January dominated the winter average. For information on temperature records during the season, please go to NCDC's Extremes page. Commentary. The winter was the opposite of the cold winter that *******i had predicted. The USA winter was warmer than average. 2007/8 Forecast: JOE *******I’S ACCUWEATHER.COM WINTER FORECAST The extended winter forecast for the months of November through March calls for a cooler than normal start and end but the traditional winter months, December through February, may be one of the top 10 warmest winters ever for the south-eastern United States. The heat will be centered over the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. For the nation as a whole, this winter will be warmer than last winter; especially in the second half of January and February when last winter season was at its coldest. When looking at the past three winters, we find that population weighted, this may be as warm as the 1998-99 winter and the 2001-02 winters. Unlike the winter of 2005-06 and last winter, where significant shots of cold and snow showed up in major areas during 35-50% of the winter months, this winter may have over 75% of the days above normal in most of the nation southeast of line from the Great Lakes to the Southwest. The only signal for below normal is over the Pacific Northwest. Outcome: November 14th warmest November on record (1895-2006). Fourth warmest November for the Northeast region. Four states (Connecticut, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Rhode Island) were record warmest during November. January 49th warmest January on record (1895-2007). Two states (Delaware and Maryland) were tied for 11th warmest January on record. Nine states were cooler than average, including Colorado and Texas. March For the contiguous United States, March 2007 was the second warmest such month on record (based on preliminary data), 5.6°F (3.1°C) warmer than the 20th century mean of 42.5°F (5.8°C). Only March 1910 was warmer in the 113-year national record. Commentary: Completely the opposite of what *******i predicted. The warmth was at the start and end of the winter and the cold was in the middle! 2008/9 Forecast. Last week, AccuWeather's Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe *******i issued his 2008-2009 winter outlook. The outlook calls for an "overall colder and snowier" winter compared to the last "several" winters for the East Coast. About the winter *******i says: "It may be a shock to some when compared with the above-average temperatures of last year in the East. It will put some 'brrrrrr' in the saddle of folks who have not had to deal with such things for a while." Keep reading for more on *******i's outlook. For the weather through the week, see our full forecast. *******i expects winter to assert itself in two blasts -- at the beginning and at the end -- with a pronounced January thaw in the middle. Outcome. For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for December was 32.5°F (0.3°C), which was 0.9°F (0.5°C) below the 20th century mean and ranked as the 35th coolest December on record, based on preliminary data. For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for January was 30.5°F (-0.8°C), which was 0.3°F (0.2°C) below the 20th century mean and ranked as the 49th coolest January on record, based on preliminary data. For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for February was 34.9°F (1.6°C), which was 0.2°F (0.1°C) above the 20th century mean and ranked as the 52nd warmest February on record, based on preliminary data. Commentary: Although the winter overall had very slightly below average temperatures, as Joe had forecast, the pattern was slightly colder at the start, no mild January and above average at the end. Nothing like what he’d forecast. 4 years, 4 poor forecasts for the USA. And he has the gall to criticise the Met Office's forecasts for the UK. *)) Read it this time Natsman and stop telling us how one good forecast makes a good forecaster. Don't need to. *The debate is all about NOW. *The public are concerned about NOW in relation to all the AGW rubbish that's being spouted. *JB has a good blog, his forecasts NOW appear to fit in with the public experience, and he doesn't accept AGW as "settled science" and thus he is popular. *The AGW alarmism and doomsday forecasts which appear to the public not to be coming to anywhere near fruition, and which are consistently being shot down in flames on a daily basis merely serve to discredit those ideological organisations responsible for the scaremongering. *Those same organisations (and their members) are consistently scoring a series of own goals, chiefly because they are now under well deserved global scrutiny. The public, therefore have no faith in them, and less so with each day that passes, which is excellent, and long overdue. Joe *******i is a beacon of good, old fashioned common sense, which sits well with the perception of the public. *So you can post all you like, the perception of AGW is slowly becoming what it should have been recognised as being long ago - a discredited, and expensive fraud. CK- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Your response is a rant, again. A politically inspired rant. You present not a shred of evidence, as always, to back your position. The only thing that counts are outcomes in terms of temperatures. The last decade was significantly warmer than any previous decade and the decade previous to that was easily warmer than any of the 11 decades before (GISS). It is over 30 years since a month fell below average temps in the surface records and 56/60 months over the last 5 years have not just been above average, but have fallen into the top 10 warmest months ever in the 130-year GISS series (my analysis). The last 6 months have seen the warmest 6 months period in 130 years (GISS). You could use any of the 3 long-term surface records and you'd get very similar figures and they are backed by the 2, 30-year, satellite records. Faced with that, how could you, or anyone else, believe that the world is not warming and is not likely to continue warming? Where's the evidence for your beliefs, Natsman?? |
#8
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On 4 Feb, 16:17, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 4, 9:54*am, Natsman wrote: On 4 Feb, 09:25, Dawlish wrote: On Feb 4, 8:17*am, Natsman wrote: On 3 Feb, 23:38, TT wrote: http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...p?partner=accu... --- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: --- He seems to make a lot more sense than those who are determined that we're all going to fry or drown next week/year/century... CK This should make anyone think twice before *praising Joe’s LRFs in the future. I researched his USA forecasts for 4 years, looked at the actual outcomes, using the NOAA data and then compared the two in a commentary. His 4 forecasts were next to useless. It’s a long read, but I'd love to hear comments about this man's LRF prowess following this analysis. If you don't believe me: look at the forecasts and the outcomes yourself. If anyone lionises Joe's LRF ability after this, they are a bigger charlatan than he is. *http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?repor...8&month=2&subm... Joe *******i USA Forecasting record. 2005/6-2008/9 2005/6. Forecast for the Eastern USA. A teeth-chattering, cold and snowy winter is predicted for the Eastern U.S. starting in December. And more snow and cold are on tap for the start of 2006, forecasters say. AccuWeather meteorologist Joe *******i said the winter forecast calls for colder than normal temperatures and above normal snowfall for the eastern Great Lakes regions. *******i bases his prediction on, among other factors, an active hurricane season. Based on the 2005 hurricane season, and other similar "hyper-hurricane" seasons in 1933, 1969 and 1995, *******i concluded that the winters that followed each of those seasons were typically cold and snowy in the Northeast. Actual Outcome (NOAA) December-February temperatures were much above average for the nation, with most states, especially those in the central U.S., averaging warmer than the long-term mean. However, Accuweather, on its site, chose to concentrate on the last 2 weeks of the winter, when reporting to its clients; Spin from Accuweather. Beginning February, 4, 2005, Joe *******i consistently predicted a dramatic change to colder weather for the Midwest and Northeast, to begin about February 18. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service predicted normal temperatures for that period. The price of April natural gas bottomed out at $5.987 on February 18, but then the weather turned colder as Joe had predicted. By March 9 the price had risen to $6.880 due to increased demand. Joe's clients had two weeks of advance warning of this opportunity. Commentary. The winter was the opposite of what *******i had predicted. It was a warm winter. The Accuweather spin is very typical of what these people do to gain business. 2006/7 Forecast: *******i sums up his expectations for the upcoming December-to- February period this way: "The eastern U.S. will experience a colder- than-normal winter overall. The area from the eastern and central Great Lakes to the south-central and south-western U.S. will experience near-normal winter temperatures. The region that stretches from the western Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest will likely see above-normal temperatures." Actual Outcome (NOAA): Winter: December-February temperatures were near much above average for the nation ranking 5th warmest on record. A record warm January dominated the winter average. For information on temperature records during the season, please go to NCDC's Extremes page. Commentary. The winter was the opposite of the cold winter that *******i had predicted. The USA winter was warmer than average. 2007/8 Forecast: JOE *******I’S ACCUWEATHER.COM WINTER FORECAST The extended winter forecast for the months of November through March calls for a cooler than normal start and end but the traditional winter months, December through February, may be one of the top 10 warmest winters ever for the south-eastern United States. The heat will be centered over the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. For the nation as a whole, this winter will be warmer than last winter; especially in the second half of January and February when last winter season was at its coldest. When looking at the past three winters, we find that population weighted, this may be as warm as the 1998-99 winter and the 2001-02 winters. Unlike the winter of 2005-06 and last winter, where significant shots of cold and snow showed up in major areas during 35-50% of the winter months, this winter may have over 75% of the days above normal in most of the nation southeast of line from the Great Lakes to the Southwest. The only signal for below normal is over the Pacific Northwest. Outcome: November 14th warmest November on record (1895-2006). Fourth warmest November for the Northeast region. Four states (Connecticut, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Rhode Island) were record warmest during November. January 49th warmest January on record (1895-2007). Two states (Delaware and Maryland) were tied for 11th warmest January on record. Nine states were cooler than average, including Colorado and Texas. March For the contiguous United States, March 2007 was the second warmest such month on record (based on preliminary data), 5.6°F (3.1°C) warmer than the 20th century mean of 42.5°F (5.8°C). Only March 1910 was warmer in the 113-year national record. Commentary: Completely the opposite of what *******i predicted. The warmth was at the start and end of the winter and the cold was in the middle! 2008/9 Forecast. Last week, AccuWeather's Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe *******i issued his 2008-2009 winter outlook. The outlook calls for an "overall colder and snowier" winter compared to the last "several" winters for the East Coast. About the winter *******i says: "It may be a shock to some when compared with the above-average temperatures of last year in the East. It will put some 'brrrrrr' in the saddle of folks who have not had to deal with such things for a while." Keep reading for more on *******i's outlook. For the weather through the week, see our full forecast. *******i expects winter to assert itself in two blasts -- at the beginning and at the end -- with a pronounced January thaw in the middle. Outcome. For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for December was 32.5°F (0.3°C), which was 0.9°F (0.5°C) below the 20th century mean and ranked as the 35th coolest December on record, based on preliminary data. For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for January was 30.5°F (-0.8°C), which was 0.3°F (0.2°C) below the 20th century mean and ranked as the 49th coolest January on record, based on preliminary data. For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for February was 34.9°F (1.6°C), which was 0.2°F (0.1°C) above the 20th century mean and ranked as the 52nd warmest February on record, based on preliminary data. Commentary: Although the winter overall had very slightly below average temperatures, as Joe had forecast, the pattern was slightly colder at the start, no mild January and above average at the end. Nothing like what he’d forecast. 4 years, 4 poor forecasts for the USA. And he has the gall to criticise the Met Office's forecasts for the UK. *)) Read it this time Natsman and stop telling us how one good forecast makes a good forecaster. Don't need to. *The debate is all about NOW. *The public are concerned about NOW in relation to all the AGW rubbish that's being spouted. *JB has a good blog, his forecasts NOW appear to fit in with the public experience, and he doesn't accept AGW as "settled science" and thus he is popular. *The AGW alarmism and doomsday forecasts which appear to the public not to be coming to anywhere near fruition, and which are consistently being shot down in flames on a daily basis merely serve to discredit those ideological organisations responsible for the scaremongering. *Those same organisations (and their members) are consistently scoring a series of own goals, chiefly because they are now under well deserved global scrutiny. The public, therefore have no faith in them, and less so with each day that passes, which is excellent, and long overdue. Joe *******i is a beacon of good, old fashioned common sense, which sits well with the perception of the public. *So you can post all you like, the perception of AGW is slowly becoming what it should have been recognised as being long ago - a discredited, and expensive fraud. CK- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Your response is a rant, again. A politically inspired rant. You present not a shred of evidence, as always, to back your position. The only thing that counts are outcomes in terms of temperatures. The last decade was significantly warmer than any previous decade and the decade previous to that was easily warmer than any of the 11 decades before (GISS). It is over 30 years since a month fell below average temps in the surface records and 56/60 months over the last 5 years have not just been above average, but have fallen into the top 10 warmest months ever in the 130-year GISS series (my analysis). The last 6 months have seen the warmest 6 months period in 130 ... read more »- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - No rant, comrade, just telling it like it is. And for good measure, I note with interest (and, I confess, a degree of satisfaction that India are pulling out of the IPCC. Thin end of the wedge, maybe? Who knows... CK |
#9
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On 4 Feb, 17:46, Natsman wrote:
On 4 Feb, 16:17, Dawlish wrote: On Feb 4, 9:54*am, Natsman wrote: On 4 Feb, 09:25, Dawlish wrote: On Feb 4, 8:17*am, Natsman wrote: On 3 Feb, 23:38, TT wrote: http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...p?partner=accu... --- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: --- He seems to make a lot more sense than those who are determined that we're all going to fry or drown next week/year/century... CK This should make anyone think twice before *praising Joe’s LRFs in the future. I researched his USA forecasts for 4 years, looked at the actual outcomes, using the NOAA data and then compared the two in a commentary. His 4 forecasts were next to useless. It’s a long read, but I'd love to hear comments about this man's LRF prowess following this analysis. If you don't believe me: look at the forecasts and the outcomes yourself. If anyone lionises Joe's LRF ability after this, they are a bigger charlatan than he is. *http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?repor...8&month=2&subm... Joe *******i USA Forecasting record. 2005/6-2008/9 2005/6. Forecast for the Eastern USA. A teeth-chattering, cold and snowy winter is predicted for the Eastern U.S. starting in December. And more snow and cold are on tap for the start of 2006, forecasters say. AccuWeather meteorologist Joe *******i said the winter forecast calls for colder than normal temperatures and above normal snowfall for the eastern Great Lakes regions. *******i bases his prediction on, among other factors, an active hurricane season. Based on the 2005 hurricane season, and other similar "hyper-hurricane" seasons in 1933, 1969 and 1995, *******i concluded that the winters that followed each of those seasons were typically cold and snowy in the Northeast. Actual Outcome (NOAA) December-February temperatures were much above average for the nation, with most states, especially those in the central U.S., averaging warmer than the long-term mean. However, Accuweather, on its site, chose to concentrate on the last 2 weeks of the winter, when reporting to its clients; Spin from Accuweather. Beginning February, 4, 2005, Joe *******i consistently predicted a dramatic change to colder weather for the Midwest and Northeast, to begin about February 18. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service predicted normal temperatures for that period. The price of April natural gas bottomed out at $5.987 on February 18, but then the weather turned colder as Joe had predicted. By March 9 the price had risen to $6.880 due to increased demand. Joe's clients had two weeks of advance warning of this opportunity. Commentary. The winter was the opposite of what *******i had predicted. It was a warm winter. The Accuweather spin is very typical of what these people do to gain business. 2006/7 Forecast: *******i sums up his expectations for the upcoming December-to- February period this way: "The eastern U.S. will experience a colder- than-normal winter overall. The area from the eastern and central Great Lakes to the south-central and south-western U.S. will experience near-normal winter temperatures. The region that stretches from the western Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest will likely see above-normal temperatures." Actual Outcome (NOAA): Winter: December-February temperatures were near much above average for the nation ranking 5th warmest on record. A record warm January dominated the winter average. For information on temperature records during the season, please go to NCDC's Extremes page. Commentary. The winter was the opposite of the cold winter that *******i had predicted. The USA winter was warmer than average. 2007/8 Forecast: JOE *******I’S ACCUWEATHER.COM WINTER FORECAST The extended winter forecast for the months of November through March calls for a cooler than normal start and end but the traditional winter months, December through February, may be one of the top 10 warmest winters ever for the south-eastern United States. The heat will be centered over the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. For the nation as a whole, this winter will be warmer than last winter; especially in the second half of January and February when last winter season was at its coldest. When looking at the past three winters, we find that population weighted, this may be as warm as the 1998-99 winter and the 2001-02 winters. Unlike the winter of 2005-06 and last winter, where significant shots of cold and snow showed up in major areas during 35-50% of the winter months, this winter may have over 75% of the days above normal in most of the nation southeast of line from the Great Lakes to the Southwest. The only signal for below normal is over the Pacific Northwest. Outcome: November 14th warmest November on record (1895-2006). Fourth warmest November for the Northeast region. Four states (Connecticut, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Rhode Island) were record warmest during November. January 49th warmest January on record (1895-2007). Two states (Delaware and Maryland) were tied for 11th warmest January on record. Nine states were cooler than average, including Colorado and Texas. March For the contiguous United States, March 2007 was the second warmest such month on record (based on preliminary data), 5.6°F (3.1°C) warmer than the 20th century mean of 42.5°F (5.8°C). Only March 1910 was warmer in the 113-year national record. Commentary: Completely the opposite of what *******i predicted. The warmth was at the start and end of the winter and the cold was in the middle! 2008/9 Forecast. Last week, AccuWeather's Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe *******i issued his 2008-2009 winter outlook. The outlook calls for an "overall colder and snowier" winter compared to the last "several" winters for the East Coast. About the winter *******i says: "It may be a shock to some when compared with the above-average temperatures of last year in the East. It will put some 'brrrrrr' in the saddle of folks who have not had to deal with such things for a while." Keep reading for more on *******i's outlook. For the weather through the week, see our full forecast. *******i expects winter to assert itself in two blasts -- at the beginning and at the end -- with a pronounced January thaw in the middle. Outcome. For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for December was 32.5°F (0.3°C), which was 0.9°F (0.5°C) below the 20th century mean and ranked as the 35th coolest December on record, based on preliminary data. For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for January was 30.5°F (-0.8°C), which was 0.3°F (0.2°C) below the 20th century mean and ranked as the 49th coolest January on record, based on preliminary data. For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for February was 34.9°F (1.6°C), which was 0.2°F (0.1°C) above the 20th century mean and ranked as the 52nd warmest February on record, based on preliminary data. Commentary: Although the winter overall had very slightly below average temperatures, as Joe had forecast, the pattern was slightly colder at the start, no mild January and above average at the end. Nothing like what he’d forecast. 4 years, 4 poor forecasts for the USA. And he has the gall to criticise the Met Office's forecasts for the UK. *)) Read it this time Natsman and stop telling us how one good forecast makes a good forecaster. Don't need to. *The debate is all about NOW. *The public are concerned about NOW in relation to all the AGW rubbish that's being spouted. *JB has a good blog, his forecasts NOW appear to fit in with the public experience, and he doesn't accept AGW as "settled science" and thus he is popular. *The AGW alarmism and doomsday forecasts which appear to the public not to be coming to anywhere near fruition, and which are consistently being shot down in flames on a daily basis merely serve to discredit those ideological organisations responsible for the scaremongering. *Those same organisations (and their members) are consistently scoring a series of own goals, chiefly because they are now under well deserved global scrutiny. The public, therefore have no faith in them, and less so with each day that passes, which is excellent, and long overdue. Joe *******i is a beacon of good, old fashioned common sense, which sits well with the perception of the public. *So you can post all you like, the perception of AGW is slowly becoming what it should have been recognised as being long ago - a discredited, and expensive fraud. CK- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Your response is a rant, again. A politically inspired rant. You present not a shred of evidence, as always, to back your position. The only thing that counts are outcomes in terms of temperatures. The last decade was significantly warmer than any previous decade and the ... read more »- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Not a rant, comrade, just telling it like it is. And just for good measure I note with interest, and I confess, a degree of satisfaction, that India are pulling out of the IPCC. Could this be the thin end of the wedge, I wonder? Who knows... CK |
#10
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On Feb 4, 4:49*pm, Natsman wrote:
Not a rant, comrade, just telling it like it is. And just for good measure I note with interest, and I confess, a degree of satisfaction, that India are pulling out of the IPCC. *Could this be the thin end of the wedge, I wonder? *Who knows... CK Present some evidence that temperatures are decreasing then, rather than ranting. Then someone who counts might believe you and yours. You can refer to whatever politically inspired thing that you wish, but until temperatures begin to decrease, very few scientists will believe as you do - about Joe *******i's forecasting prowess, or GW. Just present some evidence of global cooling having started next time you post, or research Joe B's track record yourself and show us that his past forecasting success demonstrates that really is a LRF guru. If you believe in what you do so strongly that you feel the need to constantly tell us your views are correct, that's *all* you have to do to convince. That's surely very easy? |
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