http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...er=accuweather

--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ---

On 3 Feb, 23:38, TT wrote:
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...p?partner=accu...

--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ---

He seems to make a lot more sense than those who are determined that
we're all going to fry or drown next week/year/century...

CK

On Feb 4, 8:17*am, Natsman wrote:
On 3 Feb, 23:38, TT wrote:

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...p?partner=accu....

--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ---

He seems to make a lot more sense than those who are determined that
we're all going to fry or drown next week/year/century...

CK

This should make anyone think twice before praising Joe’s LRFs in the
future.

I researched his USA forecasts for 4 years, looked at the actual
outcomes, using the NOAA data and then compared the two in a
commentary. His 4 forecasts were next to useless. It’s a long read,
but I'd love to hear comments about this man's LRF prowess following
this analysis. If you don't believe me: look at the forecasts and the
outcomes yourself. If anyone lionises Joe's LRF ability after this,
they are a bigger charlatan than he is.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?repor...d=Get+R eport

Joe *******i USA Forecasting record. 2005/6-2008/9

2005/6. Forecast for the Eastern USA.

A teeth-chattering, cold and snowy winter is predicted for the Eastern
U.S. starting in December. And more snow and cold are on tap for the
start of 2006, forecasters say.
AccuWeather meteorologist Joe *******i said the winter forecast calls
for colder than normal temperatures and above normal snowfall for the
eastern Great Lakes regions.
*******i bases his prediction on, among other factors, an active
hurricane season. Based on the 2005 hurricane season, and other
similar "hyper-hurricane" seasons in 1933, 1969 and 1995, *******i
concluded that the winters that followed each of those seasons were
typically cold and snowy in the Northeast.


Actual Outcome (NOAA)

December-February temperatures were much above average for the nation,
with most states, especially those in the central U.S., averaging
warmer than the long-term mean.
However, Accuweather, on its site, chose to concentrate on the last 2
weeks of the winter, when reporting to its clients;

Spin from Accuweather.

Beginning February, 4, 2005, Joe *******i consistently predicted a
dramatic change to colder weather for the Midwest and Northeast, to
begin about February 18. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service
predicted normal temperatures for that period. The price of April
natural gas bottomed out at $5.987 on February 18, but then the
weather turned colder as Joe had predicted. By March 9 the price had
risen to $6.880 due to increased demand. Joe's clients had two weeks
of advance warning of this opportunity.

Commentary.

The winter was the opposite of what *******i had predicted. It was a
warm winter. The Accuweather spin is very typical of what these people
do to gain business.

2006/7

Forecast:

*******i sums up his expectations for the upcoming December-to-
February period this way: "The eastern U.S. will experience a colder-
than-normal winter overall. The area from the eastern and central
Great Lakes to the south-central and south-western U.S. will
experience near-normal winter temperatures. The region that stretches
from the western Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest will likely see
above-normal temperatures."

Actual Outcome (NOAA):

Winter:
December-February temperatures were near much above average for the
nation ranking 5th warmest on record. A record warm January dominated
the winter average. For information on temperature records during the
season, please go to NCDC's Extremes page.

Commentary.

The winter was the opposite of the cold winter that *******i had
predicted. The USA winter was warmer than average.

2007/8

Forecast:
JOE *******I’S ACCUWEATHER.COM WINTER FORECAST
The extended winter forecast for the months of November through March
calls for a cooler than normal start and end but the traditional
winter months, December through February, may be one of the top 10
warmest winters ever for the south-eastern United States. The heat
will be centered over the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. For the
nation as a whole, this winter will be warmer than last winter;
especially in the second half of January and February when last winter
season was at its coldest. When looking at the past three winters, we
find that population weighted, this may be as warm as the 1998-99
winter and the 2001-02 winters. Unlike the winter of 2005-06 and last
winter, where significant shots of cold and snow showed up in major
areas during 35-50% of the winter months, this winter may have over
75% of the days above normal in most of the nation southeast of line
from the Great Lakes to the Southwest. The only signal for below
normal is over the Pacific Northwest.

Outcome:

November
14th warmest November on record (1895-2006).
Fourth warmest November for the Northeast region.
Four states (Connecticut, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Rhode Island)
were record warmest during November.
January
49th warmest January on record (1895-2007).
Two states (Delaware and Maryland) were tied for 11th warmest January
on record. Nine states were cooler than average, including Colorado
and Texas.
March
For the contiguous United States, March 2007 was the second warmest
such month on record (based on preliminary data), 5.6°F (3.1°C) warmer
than the 20th century mean of 42.5°F (5.8°C). Only March 1910 was
warmer in the 113-year national record.
Commentary:

Completely the opposite of what *******i predicted. The warmth was at
the start and end of the winter and the cold was in the middle!

2008/9

Forecast.

Last week, AccuWeather's Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe *******i
issued his 2008-2009 winter outlook. The outlook calls for an "overall
colder and snowier" winter compared to the last "several" winters for
the East Coast. About the winter *******i says:
"It may be a shock to some when compared with the above-average
temperatures of last year in the East. It will put some 'brrrrrr' in
the saddle of folks who have not had to deal with such things for a
while."
Keep reading for more on *******i's outlook. For the weather through
the week, see our full forecast.
*******i expects winter to assert itself in two blasts -- at the
beginning and at the end -- with a pronounced January thaw in the
middle.

Outcome.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for December
was 32.5°F (0.3°C), which was 0.9°F (0.5°C) below the 20th century
mean and ranked as the 35th coolest December on record, based on
preliminary data.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for January
was 30.5°F (-0.8°C), which was 0.3°F (0.2°C) below the 20th century
mean and ranked as the 49th coolest January on record, based on
preliminary data.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for February
was 34.9°F (1.6°C), which was 0.2°F (0.1°C) above the 20th century
mean and ranked as the 52nd warmest February on record, based on
preliminary data.

Commentary:
Although the winter overall had very slightly below average
temperatures, as Joe had forecast, the pattern was slightly colder at
the start, no mild January and above average at the end. Nothing like
what he’d forecast.

4 years, 4 poor forecasts for the USA. And he has the gall to
criticise the Met Office's forecasts for the UK.

*))

Read it this time Natsman and stop telling us how one good forecast
makes a good forecaster.

On 4 Feb, 08:25, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 4, 8:17*am, Natsman wrote:

On 3 Feb, 23:38, TT wrote:

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...p?partner=accu...

--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ---

He seems to make a lot more sense than those who are determined that
we're all going to fry or drown next week/year/century...

CK

This should make anyone think twice before *praising Joe’s LRFs in the
future.

I researched his USA forecasts for 4 years, looked at the actual
outcomes, using the NOAA data and then compared the two in a
commentary. His 4 forecasts were next to useless. It’s a long read,
but I'd love to hear comments about this man's LRF prowess following
this analysis. If you don't believe me: look at the forecasts and the
outcomes yourself. If anyone lionises Joe's LRF ability after this,
they are a bigger charlatan than he is.

*http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?repor...8&month=2&subm...

Joe *******i USA Forecasting record. 2005/6-2008/9

2005/6. Forecast for the Eastern USA.

A teeth-chattering, cold and snowy winter is predicted for the Eastern
U.S. starting in December. And more snow and cold are on tap for the
start of 2006, forecasters say.
AccuWeather meteorologist Joe *******i said the winter forecast calls
for colder than normal temperatures and above normal snowfall for the
eastern Great Lakes regions.
*******i bases his prediction on, among other factors, an active
hurricane season. Based on the 2005 hurricane season, and other
similar "hyper-hurricane" seasons in 1933, 1969 and 1995, *******i
concluded that the winters that followed each of those seasons were
typically cold and snowy in the Northeast.

Actual Outcome (NOAA)

December-February temperatures were much above average for the nation,
with most states, especially those in the central U.S., averaging
warmer than the long-term mean.
However, Accuweather, on its site, chose to concentrate on the last 2
weeks of the winter, when reporting to its clients;

Spin from Accuweather.

Beginning February, 4, 2005, Joe *******i consistently predicted a
dramatic change to colder weather for the Midwest and Northeast, to
begin about February 18. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service
predicted normal temperatures for that period. The price of April
natural gas bottomed out at $5.987 on February 18, but then the
weather turned colder as Joe had predicted. By March 9 the price had
risen to $6.880 due to increased demand. Joe's clients had two weeks
of advance warning of this opportunity.

Commentary.

The winter was the opposite of what *******i had predicted. It was a
warm winter. The Accuweather spin is very typical of what these people
do to gain business.

2006/7

Forecast:

*******i sums up his expectations for the upcoming December-to-
February period this way: "The eastern U.S. will experience a colder-
than-normal winter overall. The area from the eastern and central
Great Lakes to the south-central and south-western U.S. will
experience near-normal winter temperatures. The region that stretches
from the western Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest will likely see
above-normal temperatures."

Actual Outcome (NOAA):

Winter:
December-February temperatures were near much above average for the
nation ranking 5th warmest on record. A record warm January dominated
the winter average. For information on temperature records during the
season, please go to NCDC's Extremes page.

Commentary.

The winter was the opposite of the cold winter that *******i had
predicted. The USA winter was warmer than average.

2007/8

Forecast:
JOE *******I’S ACCUWEATHER.COM WINTER FORECAST
The extended winter forecast for the months of November through March
calls for a cooler than normal start and end but the traditional
winter months, December through February, may be one of the top 10
warmest winters ever for the south-eastern United States. The heat
will be centered over the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. For the
nation as a whole, this winter will be warmer than last winter;
especially in the second half of January and February when last winter
season was at its coldest. When looking at the past three winters, we
find that population weighted, this may be as warm as the 1998-99
winter and the 2001-02 winters. Unlike the winter of 2005-06 and last
winter, where significant shots of cold and snow showed up in major
areas during 35-50% of the winter months, this winter may have over
75% of the days above normal in most of the nation southeast of line
from the Great Lakes to the Southwest. The only signal for below
normal is over the Pacific Northwest.

Outcome:

November
14th warmest November on record (1895-2006).
Fourth warmest November for the Northeast region.
Four states (Connecticut, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Rhode Island)
were record warmest during November.
January
49th warmest January on record (1895-2007).
Two states (Delaware and Maryland) were tied for 11th warmest January
on record. Nine states were cooler than average, including Colorado
and Texas.
March
For the contiguous United States, March 2007 was the second warmest
such month on record (based on preliminary data), 5.6°F (3.1°C) warmer
than the 20th century mean of 42.5°F (5.8°C). Only March 1910 was
warmer in the 113-year national record.
Commentary:

Completely the opposite of what *******i predicted. The warmth was at
the start and end of the winter and the cold was in the middle!

2008/9

Forecast.

Last week, AccuWeather's Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe *******i
issued his 2008-2009 winter outlook. The outlook calls for an "overall
colder and snowier" winter compared to the last "several" winters for
the East Coast. About the winter *******i says:
"It may be a shock to some when compared with the above-average
temperatures of last year in the East. It will put some 'brrrrrr' in
the saddle of folks who have not had to deal with such things for a
while."
Keep reading for more on *******i's outlook. For the weather through
the week, see our full forecast.
*******i expects winter to assert itself in two blasts -- at the
beginning and at the end -- with a pronounced January thaw in the
middle.

Outcome.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for December
was 32.5°F (0.3°C), which was 0.9°F (0.5°C) below the 20th century
mean and ranked as the 35th coolest December on record, based on
preliminary data.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for January
was 30.5°F (-0.8°C), which was 0.3°F (0.2°C) below the 20th century
mean and ranked as the 49th coolest January on record, based on
preliminary data.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for February
was 34.9°F (1.6°C), which was 0.2°F (0.1°C) above the 20th century
mean and ranked as the 52nd warmest February on record, based on
preliminary data.

Commentary:
Although the winter overall had very slightly below average
temperatures, as Joe had forecast, the pattern was slightly colder at
the start, no mild January and above average at the end. Nothing like
what he’d forecast.

4 years, 4 poor forecasts for the USA. And he has the gall to
criticise the Met Office's forecasts for the UK.

*))

Read it this time Natsman and stop telling us how one good forecast
makes a good forecaster.

Interesting - but why have you posted this again - you could have
referred Natsman to your earlier post instead of cluttering up the
forum

On Feb 4, 9:04*am, Scott W wrote:
On 4 Feb, 08:25, Dawlish wrote:





On Feb 4, 8:17*am, Natsman wrote:

On 3 Feb, 23:38, TT wrote:

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...p?partner=accu...

--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ---

He seems to make a lot more sense than those who are determined that
we're all going to fry or drown next week/year/century...

CK

This should make anyone think twice before *praising Joe’s LRFs in the
future.

I researched his USA forecasts for 4 years, looked at the actual
outcomes, using the NOAA data and then compared the two in a
commentary. His 4 forecasts were next to useless. It’s a long read,
but I'd love to hear comments about this man's LRF prowess following
this analysis. If you don't believe me: look at the forecasts and the
outcomes yourself. If anyone lionises Joe's LRF ability after this,
they are a bigger charlatan than he is.

*http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?repor...8&month=2&subm...

Joe *******i USA Forecasting record. 2005/6-2008/9

2005/6. Forecast for the Eastern USA.

A teeth-chattering, cold and snowy winter is predicted for the Eastern
U.S. starting in December. And more snow and cold are on tap for the
start of 2006, forecasters say.
AccuWeather meteorologist Joe *******i said the winter forecast calls
for colder than normal temperatures and above normal snowfall for the
eastern Great Lakes regions.
*******i bases his prediction on, among other factors, an active
hurricane season. Based on the 2005 hurricane season, and other
similar "hyper-hurricane" seasons in 1933, 1969 and 1995, *******i
concluded that the winters that followed each of those seasons were
typically cold and snowy in the Northeast.

Actual Outcome (NOAA)

December-February temperatures were much above average for the nation,
with most states, especially those in the central U.S., averaging
warmer than the long-term mean.
However, Accuweather, on its site, chose to concentrate on the last 2
weeks of the winter, when reporting to its clients;

Spin from Accuweather.

Beginning February, 4, 2005, Joe *******i consistently predicted a
dramatic change to colder weather for the Midwest and Northeast, to
begin about February 18. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service
predicted normal temperatures for that period. The price of April
natural gas bottomed out at $5.987 on February 18, but then the
weather turned colder as Joe had predicted. By March 9 the price had
risen to $6.880 due to increased demand. Joe's clients had two weeks
of advance warning of this opportunity.

Commentary.

The winter was the opposite of what *******i had predicted. It was a
warm winter. The Accuweather spin is very typical of what these people
do to gain business.

2006/7

Forecast:

*******i sums up his expectations for the upcoming December-to-
February period this way: "The eastern U.S. will experience a colder-
than-normal winter overall. The area from the eastern and central
Great Lakes to the south-central and south-western U.S. will
experience near-normal winter temperatures. The region that stretches
from the western Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest will likely see
above-normal temperatures."

Actual Outcome (NOAA):

Winter:
December-February temperatures were near much above average for the
nation ranking 5th warmest on record. A record warm January dominated
the winter average. For information on temperature records during the
season, please go to NCDC's Extremes page.

Commentary.

The winter was the opposite of the cold winter that *******i had
predicted. The USA winter was warmer than average.

2007/8

Forecast:
JOE *******I’S ACCUWEATHER.COM WINTER FORECAST
The extended winter forecast for the months of November through March
calls for a cooler than normal start and end but the traditional
winter months, December through February, may be one of the top 10
warmest winters ever for the south-eastern United States. The heat
will be centered over the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. For the
nation as a whole, this winter will be warmer than last winter;
especially in the second half of January and February when last winter
season was at its coldest. When looking at the past three winters, we
find that population weighted, this may be as warm as the 1998-99
winter and the 2001-02 winters. Unlike the winter of 2005-06 and last
winter, where significant shots of cold and snow showed up in major
areas during 35-50% of the winter months, this winter may have over
75% of the days above normal in most of the nation southeast of line
from the Great Lakes to the Southwest. The only signal for below
normal is over the Pacific Northwest.

Outcome:

November
14th warmest November on record (1895-2006).
Fourth warmest November for the Northeast region.
Four states (Connecticut, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Rhode Island)
were record warmest during November.
January
49th warmest January on record (1895-2007).
Two states (Delaware and Maryland) were tied for 11th warmest January
on record. Nine states were cooler than average, including Colorado
and Texas.
March
For the contiguous United States, March 2007 was the second warmest
such month on record (based on preliminary data), 5.6°F (3.1°C) warmer
than the 20th century mean of 42.5°F (5.8°C). Only March 1910 was
warmer in the 113-year national record.
Commentary:

Completely the opposite of what *******i predicted. The warmth was at
the start and end of the winter and the cold was in the middle!

2008/9

Forecast.

Last week, AccuWeather's Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe *******i
issued his 2008-2009 winter outlook. The outlook calls for an "overall
colder and snowier" winter compared to the last "several" winters for
the East Coast. About the winter *******i says:
"It may be a shock to some when compared with the above-average
temperatures of last year in the East. It will put some 'brrrrrr' in
the saddle of folks who have not had to deal with such things for a
while."
Keep reading for more on *******i's outlook. For the weather through
the week, see our full forecast.
*******i expects winter to assert itself in two blasts -- at the
beginning and at the end -- with a pronounced January thaw in the
middle.

Outcome.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for December
was 32.5°F (0.3°C), which was 0.9°F (0.5°C) below the 20th century
mean and ranked as the 35th coolest December on record, based on
preliminary data.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for January
was 30.5°F (-0.8°C), which was 0.3°F (0.2°C) below the 20th century
mean and ranked as the 49th coolest January on record, based on
preliminary data.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for February
was 34.9°F (1.6°C), which was 0.2°F (0.1°C) above the 20th century
mean and ranked as the 52nd warmest February on record, based on
preliminary data.

Commentary:
Although the winter overall had very slightly below average
temperatures, as Joe had forecast, the pattern was slightly colder at
the start, no mild January and above average at the end. Nothing like
what he’d forecast.

4 years, 4 poor forecasts for the USA. And he has the gall to
criticise the Met Office's forecasts for the UK.

*))

Read it this time Natsman and stop telling us how one good forecast
makes a good forecaster.

Interesting - but why have you posted this again - you could have
referred Natsman to your earlier post instead of cluttering up the
forum- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

True, Scott. I did consider that, but this particular poster has
obviously forgotten, or he wouldn't keep ploughing this very dead
furrow. I was working on the principle that if I post this enough,
Natsman and a very small number of others may realise their mistake,
take off their blinkers about *******i, separate his views on GW,
religion and this forecast and discuss them in context, realising that
one forecast never makes a forecaster. Whatever the outcome of this
forecast, it also doesn't mean that he talks sense about anything
else. Your observation is reasonable though. *))

The stats on his USA winter forecasting hamstring his LRF credentials,
but some will always blind themselves to this and to annoyionmg things
like facts and track records. I'd rather talk about his winter
forecast at outcome and this winter's forecast is going well so far.
However, his mixing of religious fervour, politics, climatology and
meteorology is nonsensical and leads me to think that the meteorology
and climatology behind this forecast is far less of a factor in its
publication than his, or his employer's, desire for public attention.

On 4 Feb, 09:25, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 4, 8:17*am, Natsman wrote:

On 3 Feb, 23:38, TT wrote:

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...p?partner=accu...

--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ---

He seems to make a lot more sense than those who are determined that
we're all going to fry or drown next week/year/century...

CK

This should make anyone think twice before *praising Joe’s LRFs in the
future.

I researched his USA forecasts for 4 years, looked at the actual
outcomes, using the NOAA data and then compared the two in a
commentary. His 4 forecasts were next to useless. It’s a long read,
but I'd love to hear comments about this man's LRF prowess following
this analysis. If you don't believe me: look at the forecasts and the
outcomes yourself. If anyone lionises Joe's LRF ability after this,
they are a bigger charlatan than he is.

*http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?repor...8&month=2&subm...

Joe *******i USA Forecasting record. 2005/6-2008/9

2005/6. Forecast for the Eastern USA.

A teeth-chattering, cold and snowy winter is predicted for the Eastern
U.S. starting in December. And more snow and cold are on tap for the
start of 2006, forecasters say.
AccuWeather meteorologist Joe *******i said the winter forecast calls
for colder than normal temperatures and above normal snowfall for the
eastern Great Lakes regions.
*******i bases his prediction on, among other factors, an active
hurricane season. Based on the 2005 hurricane season, and other
similar "hyper-hurricane" seasons in 1933, 1969 and 1995, *******i
concluded that the winters that followed each of those seasons were
typically cold and snowy in the Northeast.

Actual Outcome (NOAA)

December-February temperatures were much above average for the nation,
with most states, especially those in the central U.S., averaging
warmer than the long-term mean.
However, Accuweather, on its site, chose to concentrate on the last 2
weeks of the winter, when reporting to its clients;

Spin from Accuweather.

Beginning February, 4, 2005, Joe *******i consistently predicted a
dramatic change to colder weather for the Midwest and Northeast, to
begin about February 18. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service
predicted normal temperatures for that period. The price of April
natural gas bottomed out at $5.987 on February 18, but then the
weather turned colder as Joe had predicted. By March 9 the price had
risen to $6.880 due to increased demand. Joe's clients had two weeks
of advance warning of this opportunity.

Commentary.

The winter was the opposite of what *******i had predicted. It was a
warm winter. The Accuweather spin is very typical of what these people
do to gain business.

2006/7

Forecast:

*******i sums up his expectations for the upcoming December-to-
February period this way: "The eastern U.S. will experience a colder-
than-normal winter overall. The area from the eastern and central
Great Lakes to the south-central and south-western U.S. will
experience near-normal winter temperatures. The region that stretches
from the western Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest will likely see
above-normal temperatures."

Actual Outcome (NOAA):

Winter:
December-February temperatures were near much above average for the
nation ranking 5th warmest on record. A record warm January dominated
the winter average. For information on temperature records during the
season, please go to NCDC's Extremes page.

Commentary.

The winter was the opposite of the cold winter that *******i had
predicted. The USA winter was warmer than average.

2007/8

Forecast:
JOE *******I’S ACCUWEATHER.COM WINTER FORECAST
The extended winter forecast for the months of November through March
calls for a cooler than normal start and end but the traditional
winter months, December through February, may be one of the top 10
warmest winters ever for the south-eastern United States. The heat
will be centered over the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. For the
nation as a whole, this winter will be warmer than last winter;
especially in the second half of January and February when last winter
season was at its coldest. When looking at the past three winters, we
find that population weighted, this may be as warm as the 1998-99
winter and the 2001-02 winters. Unlike the winter of 2005-06 and last
winter, where significant shots of cold and snow showed up in major
areas during 35-50% of the winter months, this winter may have over
75% of the days above normal in most of the nation southeast of line
from the Great Lakes to the Southwest. The only signal for below
normal is over the Pacific Northwest.

Outcome:

November
14th warmest November on record (1895-2006).
Fourth warmest November for the Northeast region.
Four states (Connecticut, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Rhode Island)
were record warmest during November.
January
49th warmest January on record (1895-2007).
Two states (Delaware and Maryland) were tied for 11th warmest January
on record. Nine states were cooler than average, including Colorado
and Texas.
March
For the contiguous United States, March 2007 was the second warmest
such month on record (based on preliminary data), 5.6°F (3.1°C) warmer
than the 20th century mean of 42.5°F (5.8°C). Only March 1910 was
warmer in the 113-year national record.
Commentary:

Completely the opposite of what *******i predicted. The warmth was at
the start and end of the winter and the cold was in the middle!

2008/9

Forecast.

Last week, AccuWeather's Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe *******i
issued his 2008-2009 winter outlook. The outlook calls for an "overall
colder and snowier" winter compared to the last "several" winters for
the East Coast. About the winter *******i says:
"It may be a shock to some when compared with the above-average
temperatures of last year in the East. It will put some 'brrrrrr' in
the saddle of folks who have not had to deal with such things for a
while."
Keep reading for more on *******i's outlook. For the weather through
the week, see our full forecast.
*******i expects winter to assert itself in two blasts -- at the
beginning and at the end -- with a pronounced January thaw in the
middle.

Outcome.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for December
was 32.5°F (0.3°C), which was 0.9°F (0.5°C) below the 20th century
mean and ranked as the 35th coolest December on record, based on
preliminary data.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for January
was 30.5°F (-0.8°C), which was 0.3°F (0.2°C) below the 20th century
mean and ranked as the 49th coolest January on record, based on
preliminary data.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for February
was 34.9°F (1.6°C), which was 0.2°F (0.1°C) above the 20th century
mean and ranked as the 52nd warmest February on record, based on
preliminary data.

Commentary:
Although the winter overall had very slightly below average
temperatures, as Joe had forecast, the pattern was slightly colder at
the start, no mild January and above average at the end. Nothing like
what he’d forecast.

4 years, 4 poor forecasts for the USA. And he has the gall to
criticise the Met Office's forecasts for the UK.

*))

Read it this time Natsman and stop telling us how one good forecast
makes a good forecaster.

Don't need to. The debate is all about NOW. The public are concerned
about NOW in relation to all the AGW rubbish that's being spouted. JB
has a good blog, his forecasts NOW appear to fit in with the public
experience, and he doesn't accept AGW as "settled science" and thus he
is popular. The AGW alarmism and doomsday forecasts which appear to
the public not to be coming to anywhere near fruition, and which are
consistently being shot down in flames on a daily basis merely serve
to discredit those ideological organisations responsible for the
scaremongering. Those same organisations (and their members) are
consistently scoring a series of own goals, chiefly because they are
now under well deserved global scrutiny. The public, therefore have no
faith in them, and less so with each day that passes, which is
excellent, and long overdue. Joe *******i is a beacon of good, old
fashioned common sense, which sits well with the perception of the
public. So you can post all you like, the perception of AGW is slowly
becoming what it should have been recognised as being long ago - a
discredited, and expensive fraud.

CK

On Feb 4, 9:54*am, Natsman wrote:
On 4 Feb, 09:25, Dawlish wrote:





On Feb 4, 8:17*am, Natsman wrote:

On 3 Feb, 23:38, TT wrote:

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...p?partner=accu...

--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ---

He seems to make a lot more sense than those who are determined that
we're all going to fry or drown next week/year/century...

CK

This should make anyone think twice before *praising Joe’s LRFs in the
future.

I researched his USA forecasts for 4 years, looked at the actual
outcomes, using the NOAA data and then compared the two in a
commentary. His 4 forecasts were next to useless. It’s a long read,
but I'd love to hear comments about this man's LRF prowess following
this analysis. If you don't believe me: look at the forecasts and the
outcomes yourself. If anyone lionises Joe's LRF ability after this,
they are a bigger charlatan than he is.

*http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?repor...8&month=2&subm...

Joe *******i USA Forecasting record. 2005/6-2008/9

2005/6. Forecast for the Eastern USA.

A teeth-chattering, cold and snowy winter is predicted for the Eastern
U.S. starting in December. And more snow and cold are on tap for the
start of 2006, forecasters say.
AccuWeather meteorologist Joe *******i said the winter forecast calls
for colder than normal temperatures and above normal snowfall for the
eastern Great Lakes regions.
*******i bases his prediction on, among other factors, an active
hurricane season. Based on the 2005 hurricane season, and other
similar "hyper-hurricane" seasons in 1933, 1969 and 1995, *******i
concluded that the winters that followed each of those seasons were
typically cold and snowy in the Northeast.

Actual Outcome (NOAA)

December-February temperatures were much above average for the nation,
with most states, especially those in the central U.S., averaging
warmer than the long-term mean.
However, Accuweather, on its site, chose to concentrate on the last 2
weeks of the winter, when reporting to its clients;

Spin from Accuweather.

Beginning February, 4, 2005, Joe *******i consistently predicted a
dramatic change to colder weather for the Midwest and Northeast, to
begin about February 18. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service
predicted normal temperatures for that period. The price of April
natural gas bottomed out at $5.987 on February 18, but then the
weather turned colder as Joe had predicted. By March 9 the price had
risen to $6.880 due to increased demand. Joe's clients had two weeks
of advance warning of this opportunity.

Commentary.

The winter was the opposite of what *******i had predicted. It was a
warm winter. The Accuweather spin is very typical of what these people
do to gain business.

2006/7

Forecast:

*******i sums up his expectations for the upcoming December-to-
February period this way: "The eastern U.S. will experience a colder-
than-normal winter overall. The area from the eastern and central
Great Lakes to the south-central and south-western U.S. will
experience near-normal winter temperatures. The region that stretches
from the western Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest will likely see
above-normal temperatures."

Actual Outcome (NOAA):

Winter:
December-February temperatures were near much above average for the
nation ranking 5th warmest on record. A record warm January dominated
the winter average. For information on temperature records during the
season, please go to NCDC's Extremes page.

Commentary.

The winter was the opposite of the cold winter that *******i had
predicted. The USA winter was warmer than average.

2007/8

Forecast:
JOE *******I’S ACCUWEATHER.COM WINTER FORECAST
The extended winter forecast for the months of November through March
calls for a cooler than normal start and end but the traditional
winter months, December through February, may be one of the top 10
warmest winters ever for the south-eastern United States. The heat
will be centered over the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. For the
nation as a whole, this winter will be warmer than last winter;
especially in the second half of January and February when last winter
season was at its coldest. When looking at the past three winters, we
find that population weighted, this may be as warm as the 1998-99
winter and the 2001-02 winters. Unlike the winter of 2005-06 and last
winter, where significant shots of cold and snow showed up in major
areas during 35-50% of the winter months, this winter may have over
75% of the days above normal in most of the nation southeast of line
from the Great Lakes to the Southwest. The only signal for below
normal is over the Pacific Northwest.

Outcome:

November
14th warmest November on record (1895-2006).
Fourth warmest November for the Northeast region.
Four states (Connecticut, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Rhode Island)
were record warmest during November.
January
49th warmest January on record (1895-2007).
Two states (Delaware and Maryland) were tied for 11th warmest January
on record. Nine states were cooler than average, including Colorado
and Texas.
March
For the contiguous United States, March 2007 was the second warmest
such month on record (based on preliminary data), 5.6°F (3.1°C) warmer
than the 20th century mean of 42.5°F (5.8°C). Only March 1910 was
warmer in the 113-year national record.
Commentary:

Completely the opposite of what *******i predicted. The warmth was at
the start and end of the winter and the cold was in the middle!

2008/9

Forecast.

Last week, AccuWeather's Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe *******i
issued his 2008-2009 winter outlook. The outlook calls for an "overall
colder and snowier" winter compared to the last "several" winters for
the East Coast. About the winter *******i says:
"It may be a shock to some when compared with the above-average
temperatures of last year in the East. It will put some 'brrrrrr' in
the saddle of folks who have not had to deal with such things for a
while."
Keep reading for more on *******i's outlook. For the weather through
the week, see our full forecast.
*******i expects winter to assert itself in two blasts -- at the
beginning and at the end -- with a pronounced January thaw in the
middle.

Outcome.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for December
was 32.5°F (0.3°C), which was 0.9°F (0.5°C) below the 20th century
mean and ranked as the 35th coolest December on record, based on
preliminary data.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for January
was 30.5°F (-0.8°C), which was 0.3°F (0.2°C) below the 20th century
mean and ranked as the 49th coolest January on record, based on
preliminary data.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for February
was 34.9°F (1.6°C), which was 0.2°F (0.1°C) above the 20th century
mean and ranked as the 52nd warmest February on record, based on
preliminary data.

Commentary:
Although the winter overall had very slightly below average
temperatures, as Joe had forecast, the pattern was slightly colder at
the start, no mild January and above average at the end. Nothing like
what he’d forecast.

4 years, 4 poor forecasts for the USA. And he has the gall to
criticise the Met Office's forecasts for the UK.

*))

Read it this time Natsman and stop telling us how one good forecast
makes a good forecaster.

Don't need to. *The debate is all about NOW. *The public are concerned
about NOW in relation to all the AGW rubbish that's being spouted. *JB
has a good blog, his forecasts NOW appear to fit in with the public
experience, and he doesn't accept AGW as "settled science" and thus he
is popular. *The AGW alarmism and doomsday forecasts which appear to
the public not to be coming to anywhere near fruition, and which are
consistently being shot down in flames on a daily basis merely serve
to discredit those ideological organisations responsible for the
scaremongering. *Those same organisations (and their members) are
consistently scoring a series of own goals, chiefly because they are
now under well deserved global scrutiny. The public, therefore have no
faith in them, and less so with each day that passes, which is
excellent, and long overdue. Joe *******i is a beacon of good, old
fashioned common sense, which sits well with the perception of the
public. *So you can post all you like, the perception of AGW is slowly
becoming what it should have been recognised as being long ago - a
discredited, and expensive fraud.

CK- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Your response is a rant, again. A politically inspired rant. You
present not a shred of evidence, as always, to back your position.

The only thing that counts are outcomes in terms of temperatures. The
last decade was significantly warmer than any previous decade and the
decade previous to that was easily warmer than any of the 11 decades
before (GISS). It is over 30 years since a month fell below average
temps in the surface records and 56/60 months over the last 5 years
have not just been above average, but have fallen into the top 10
warmest months ever in the 130-year GISS series (my analysis). The
last 6 months have seen the warmest 6 months period in 130 years
(GISS). You could use any of the 3 long-term surface records and you'd
get very similar figures and they are backed by the 2, 30-year,
satellite records.

Faced with that, how could you, or anyone else, believe that the world
is not warming and is not likely to continue warming? Where's the
evidence for your beliefs, Natsman??

On 4 Feb, 16:17, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 4, 9:54*am, Natsman wrote:





On 4 Feb, 09:25, Dawlish wrote:

On Feb 4, 8:17*am, Natsman wrote:

On 3 Feb, 23:38, TT wrote:

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...p?partner=accu...

--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ---

He seems to make a lot more sense than those who are determined that
we're all going to fry or drown next week/year/century...

CK

This should make anyone think twice before *praising Joe’s LRFs in the
future.

I researched his USA forecasts for 4 years, looked at the actual
outcomes, using the NOAA data and then compared the two in a
commentary. His 4 forecasts were next to useless. It’s a long read,
but I'd love to hear comments about this man's LRF prowess following
this analysis. If you don't believe me: look at the forecasts and the
outcomes yourself. If anyone lionises Joe's LRF ability after this,
they are a bigger charlatan than he is.

*http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?repor...8&month=2&subm...

Joe *******i USA Forecasting record. 2005/6-2008/9

2005/6. Forecast for the Eastern USA.

A teeth-chattering, cold and snowy winter is predicted for the Eastern
U.S. starting in December. And more snow and cold are on tap for the
start of 2006, forecasters say.
AccuWeather meteorologist Joe *******i said the winter forecast calls
for colder than normal temperatures and above normal snowfall for the
eastern Great Lakes regions.
*******i bases his prediction on, among other factors, an active
hurricane season. Based on the 2005 hurricane season, and other
similar "hyper-hurricane" seasons in 1933, 1969 and 1995, *******i
concluded that the winters that followed each of those seasons were
typically cold and snowy in the Northeast.

Actual Outcome (NOAA)

December-February temperatures were much above average for the nation,
with most states, especially those in the central U.S., averaging
warmer than the long-term mean.
However, Accuweather, on its site, chose to concentrate on the last 2
weeks of the winter, when reporting to its clients;

Spin from Accuweather.

Beginning February, 4, 2005, Joe *******i consistently predicted a
dramatic change to colder weather for the Midwest and Northeast, to
begin about February 18. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service
predicted normal temperatures for that period. The price of April
natural gas bottomed out at $5.987 on February 18, but then the
weather turned colder as Joe had predicted. By March 9 the price had
risen to $6.880 due to increased demand. Joe's clients had two weeks
of advance warning of this opportunity.

Commentary.

The winter was the opposite of what *******i had predicted. It was a
warm winter. The Accuweather spin is very typical of what these people
do to gain business.

2006/7

Forecast:

*******i sums up his expectations for the upcoming December-to-
February period this way: "The eastern U.S. will experience a colder-
than-normal winter overall. The area from the eastern and central
Great Lakes to the south-central and south-western U.S. will
experience near-normal winter temperatures. The region that stretches
from the western Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest will likely see
above-normal temperatures."

Actual Outcome (NOAA):

Winter:
December-February temperatures were near much above average for the
nation ranking 5th warmest on record. A record warm January dominated
the winter average. For information on temperature records during the
season, please go to NCDC's Extremes page.

Commentary.

The winter was the opposite of the cold winter that *******i had
predicted. The USA winter was warmer than average.

2007/8

Forecast:
JOE *******I’S ACCUWEATHER.COM WINTER FORECAST
The extended winter forecast for the months of November through March
calls for a cooler than normal start and end but the traditional
winter months, December through February, may be one of the top 10
warmest winters ever for the south-eastern United States. The heat
will be centered over the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. For the
nation as a whole, this winter will be warmer than last winter;
especially in the second half of January and February when last winter
season was at its coldest. When looking at the past three winters, we
find that population weighted, this may be as warm as the 1998-99
winter and the 2001-02 winters. Unlike the winter of 2005-06 and last
winter, where significant shots of cold and snow showed up in major
areas during 35-50% of the winter months, this winter may have over
75% of the days above normal in most of the nation southeast of line
from the Great Lakes to the Southwest. The only signal for below
normal is over the Pacific Northwest.

Outcome:

November
14th warmest November on record (1895-2006).
Fourth warmest November for the Northeast region.
Four states (Connecticut, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Rhode Island)
were record warmest during November.
January
49th warmest January on record (1895-2007).
Two states (Delaware and Maryland) were tied for 11th warmest January
on record. Nine states were cooler than average, including Colorado
and Texas.
March
For the contiguous United States, March 2007 was the second warmest
such month on record (based on preliminary data), 5.6°F (3.1°C) warmer
than the 20th century mean of 42.5°F (5.8°C). Only March 1910 was
warmer in the 113-year national record.
Commentary:

Completely the opposite of what *******i predicted. The warmth was at
the start and end of the winter and the cold was in the middle!

2008/9

Forecast.

Last week, AccuWeather's Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe *******i
issued his 2008-2009 winter outlook. The outlook calls for an "overall
colder and snowier" winter compared to the last "several" winters for
the East Coast. About the winter *******i says:
"It may be a shock to some when compared with the above-average
temperatures of last year in the East. It will put some 'brrrrrr' in
the saddle of folks who have not had to deal with such things for a
while."
Keep reading for more on *******i's outlook. For the weather through
the week, see our full forecast.
*******i expects winter to assert itself in two blasts -- at the
beginning and at the end -- with a pronounced January thaw in the
middle.

Outcome.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for December
was 32.5°F (0.3°C), which was 0.9°F (0.5°C) below the 20th century
mean and ranked as the 35th coolest December on record, based on
preliminary data.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for January
was 30.5°F (-0.8°C), which was 0.3°F (0.2°C) below the 20th century
mean and ranked as the 49th coolest January on record, based on
preliminary data.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for February
was 34.9°F (1.6°C), which was 0.2°F (0.1°C) above the 20th century
mean and ranked as the 52nd warmest February on record, based on
preliminary data.

Commentary:
Although the winter overall had very slightly below average
temperatures, as Joe had forecast, the pattern was slightly colder at
the start, no mild January and above average at the end. Nothing like
what he’d forecast.

4 years, 4 poor forecasts for the USA. And he has the gall to
criticise the Met Office's forecasts for the UK.

*))

Read it this time Natsman and stop telling us how one good forecast
makes a good forecaster.

Don't need to. *The debate is all about NOW. *The public are concerned
about NOW in relation to all the AGW rubbish that's being spouted. *JB
has a good blog, his forecasts NOW appear to fit in with the public
experience, and he doesn't accept AGW as "settled science" and thus he
is popular. *The AGW alarmism and doomsday forecasts which appear to
the public not to be coming to anywhere near fruition, and which are
consistently being shot down in flames on a daily basis merely serve
to discredit those ideological organisations responsible for the
scaremongering. *Those same organisations (and their members) are
consistently scoring a series of own goals, chiefly because they are
now under well deserved global scrutiny. The public, therefore have no
faith in them, and less so with each day that passes, which is
excellent, and long overdue. Joe *******i is a beacon of good, old
fashioned common sense, which sits well with the perception of the
public. *So you can post all you like, the perception of AGW is slowly
becoming what it should have been recognised as being long ago - a
discredited, and expensive fraud.

CK- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Your response is a rant, again. A politically inspired rant. You
present not a shred of evidence, as always, to back your position.

The only thing that counts are outcomes in terms of temperatures. The
last decade was significantly warmer than any previous decade and the
decade previous to that was easily warmer than any of the 11 decades
before (GISS). It is over 30 years since a month fell below average
temps in the surface records and 56/60 months over the last 5 years
have not just been above average, but have fallen into the top 10
warmest months ever in the 130-year GISS series (my analysis). The
last 6 months have seen the warmest 6 months period in 130 ...

read more »- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

No rant, comrade, just telling it like it is.
And for good measure, I note with interest (and, I confess, a degree
of satisfaction that India are pulling out of the IPCC. Thin end of
the wedge, maybe? Who knows...

CK

On 4 Feb, 17:46, Natsman wrote:
On 4 Feb, 16:17, Dawlish wrote:



On Feb 4, 9:54*am, Natsman wrote:

On 4 Feb, 09:25, Dawlish wrote:

On Feb 4, 8:17*am, Natsman wrote:

On 3 Feb, 23:38, TT wrote:

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...p?partner=accu...

--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ---

He seems to make a lot more sense than those who are determined that
we're all going to fry or drown next week/year/century...

CK

This should make anyone think twice before *praising Joe’s LRFs in the
future.

I researched his USA forecasts for 4 years, looked at the actual
outcomes, using the NOAA data and then compared the two in a
commentary. His 4 forecasts were next to useless. It’s a long read,
but I'd love to hear comments about this man's LRF prowess following
this analysis. If you don't believe me: look at the forecasts and the
outcomes yourself. If anyone lionises Joe's LRF ability after this,
they are a bigger charlatan than he is.

*http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?repor...8&month=2&subm...

Joe *******i USA Forecasting record. 2005/6-2008/9

2005/6. Forecast for the Eastern USA.

A teeth-chattering, cold and snowy winter is predicted for the Eastern
U.S. starting in December. And more snow and cold are on tap for the
start of 2006, forecasters say.
AccuWeather meteorologist Joe *******i said the winter forecast calls
for colder than normal temperatures and above normal snowfall for the
eastern Great Lakes regions.
*******i bases his prediction on, among other factors, an active
hurricane season. Based on the 2005 hurricane season, and other
similar "hyper-hurricane" seasons in 1933, 1969 and 1995, *******i
concluded that the winters that followed each of those seasons were
typically cold and snowy in the Northeast.

Actual Outcome (NOAA)

December-February temperatures were much above average for the nation,
with most states, especially those in the central U.S., averaging
warmer than the long-term mean.
However, Accuweather, on its site, chose to concentrate on the last 2
weeks of the winter, when reporting to its clients;

Spin from Accuweather.

Beginning February, 4, 2005, Joe *******i consistently predicted a
dramatic change to colder weather for the Midwest and Northeast, to
begin about February 18. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service
predicted normal temperatures for that period. The price of April
natural gas bottomed out at $5.987 on February 18, but then the
weather turned colder as Joe had predicted. By March 9 the price had
risen to $6.880 due to increased demand. Joe's clients had two weeks
of advance warning of this opportunity.

Commentary.

The winter was the opposite of what *******i had predicted. It was a
warm winter. The Accuweather spin is very typical of what these people
do to gain business.

2006/7

Forecast:

*******i sums up his expectations for the upcoming December-to-
February period this way: "The eastern U.S. will experience a colder-
than-normal winter overall. The area from the eastern and central
Great Lakes to the south-central and south-western U.S. will
experience near-normal winter temperatures. The region that stretches
from the western Great Lakes to the Pacific Northwest will likely see
above-normal temperatures."

Actual Outcome (NOAA):

Winter:
December-February temperatures were near much above average for the
nation ranking 5th warmest on record. A record warm January dominated
the winter average. For information on temperature records during the
season, please go to NCDC's Extremes page.

Commentary.

The winter was the opposite of the cold winter that *******i had
predicted. The USA winter was warmer than average.

2007/8

Forecast:
JOE *******I’S ACCUWEATHER.COM WINTER FORECAST
The extended winter forecast for the months of November through March
calls for a cooler than normal start and end but the traditional
winter months, December through February, may be one of the top 10
warmest winters ever for the south-eastern United States. The heat
will be centered over the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas. For the
nation as a whole, this winter will be warmer than last winter;
especially in the second half of January and February when last winter
season was at its coldest. When looking at the past three winters, we
find that population weighted, this may be as warm as the 1998-99
winter and the 2001-02 winters. Unlike the winter of 2005-06 and last
winter, where significant shots of cold and snow showed up in major
areas during 35-50% of the winter months, this winter may have over
75% of the days above normal in most of the nation southeast of line
from the Great Lakes to the Southwest. The only signal for below
normal is over the Pacific Northwest.

Outcome:

November
14th warmest November on record (1895-2006).
Fourth warmest November for the Northeast region.
Four states (Connecticut, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Rhode Island)
were record warmest during November.
January
49th warmest January on record (1895-2007).
Two states (Delaware and Maryland) were tied for 11th warmest January
on record. Nine states were cooler than average, including Colorado
and Texas.
March
For the contiguous United States, March 2007 was the second warmest
such month on record (based on preliminary data), 5.6°F (3.1°C) warmer
than the 20th century mean of 42.5°F (5.8°C). Only March 1910 was
warmer in the 113-year national record.
Commentary:

Completely the opposite of what *******i predicted. The warmth was at
the start and end of the winter and the cold was in the middle!

2008/9

Forecast.

Last week, AccuWeather's Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe *******i
issued his 2008-2009 winter outlook. The outlook calls for an "overall
colder and snowier" winter compared to the last "several" winters for
the East Coast. About the winter *******i says:
"It may be a shock to some when compared with the above-average
temperatures of last year in the East. It will put some 'brrrrrr' in
the saddle of folks who have not had to deal with such things for a
while."
Keep reading for more on *******i's outlook. For the weather through
the week, see our full forecast.
*******i expects winter to assert itself in two blasts -- at the
beginning and at the end -- with a pronounced January thaw in the
middle.

Outcome.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for December
was 32.5°F (0.3°C), which was 0.9°F (0.5°C) below the 20th century
mean and ranked as the 35th coolest December on record, based on
preliminary data.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for January
was 30.5°F (-0.8°C), which was 0.3°F (0.2°C) below the 20th century
mean and ranked as the 49th coolest January on record, based on
preliminary data.

For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for February
was 34.9°F (1.6°C), which was 0.2°F (0.1°C) above the 20th century
mean and ranked as the 52nd warmest February on record, based on
preliminary data.

Commentary:
Although the winter overall had very slightly below average
temperatures, as Joe had forecast, the pattern was slightly colder at
the start, no mild January and above average at the end. Nothing like
what he’d forecast.

4 years, 4 poor forecasts for the USA. And he has the gall to
criticise the Met Office's forecasts for the UK.

*))

Read it this time Natsman and stop telling us how one good forecast
makes a good forecaster.

Don't need to. *The debate is all about NOW. *The public are concerned
about NOW in relation to all the AGW rubbish that's being spouted. *JB
has a good blog, his forecasts NOW appear to fit in with the public
experience, and he doesn't accept AGW as "settled science" and thus he
is popular. *The AGW alarmism and doomsday forecasts which appear to
the public not to be coming to anywhere near fruition, and which are
consistently being shot down in flames on a daily basis merely serve
to discredit those ideological organisations responsible for the
scaremongering. *Those same organisations (and their members) are
consistently scoring a series of own goals, chiefly because they are
now under well deserved global scrutiny. The public, therefore have no
faith in them, and less so with each day that passes, which is
excellent, and long overdue. Joe *******i is a beacon of good, old
fashioned common sense, which sits well with the perception of the
public. *So you can post all you like, the perception of AGW is slowly
becoming what it should have been recognised as being long ago - a
discredited, and expensive fraud.

CK- Hide quoted text -

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Your response is a rant, again. A politically inspired rant. You
present not a shred of evidence, as always, to back your position.

The only thing that counts are outcomes in terms of temperatures. The
last decade was significantly warmer than any previous decade and the

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Not a rant, comrade, just telling it like it is.

And just for good measure I note with interest, and I confess, a
degree of satisfaction, that India are pulling out of the IPCC. Could
this be the thin end of the wedge, I wonder? Who knows...

CK

On Feb 4, 4:49*pm, Natsman wrote:

Not a rant, comrade, just telling it like it is.

And just for good measure I note with interest, and I confess, a
degree of satisfaction, that India are pulling out of the IPCC. *Could
this be the thin end of the wedge, I wonder? *Who knows...

CK

Present some evidence that temperatures are decreasing then, rather
than ranting. Then someone who counts might believe you and yours. You
can refer to whatever politically inspired thing that you wish, but
until temperatures begin to decrease, very few scientists will believe
as you do - about Joe *******i's forecasting prowess, or GW.

Just present some evidence of global cooling having started next time
you post, or research Joe B's track record yourself and show us that
his past forecasting success demonstrates that really is a LRF guru.
If you believe in what you do so strongly that you feel the need to
constantly tell us your views are correct, that's *all* you have to do
to convince. That's surely very easy?