Well after three weeks of twoing and froing it looks as if the cold will
return in a few days time. Will said - "Note that 850hPa temps. will not be
a useful guide as cold air will be below this to start with. " So I imagine
some of the -15C 850 hPa's being modelled for London in some peturbations
would bring quite chilly conditions ;-)
Dave

In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
Well after three weeks of twoing and froing it looks as if the cold will
return in a few days time. Will said - "Note that 850hPa temps. will not be
a useful guide as cold air will be below this to start with. " So I imagine
some of the -15C 850 hPa's being modelled for London in some peturbations
would bring quite chilly conditions ;-)
Dave





Both the 18Z and 00Z GFS operational runs went for very cold NEerlies by
the middle of next week, and so far the 06Z seems to be evolving very
similarly. With such cold air aloft and quite a long sea track over the
North Sea, I imagine that eastern regions could see quite a bit of snow.
But the air would have been warmed in its lowest layer by that longish
sea track, so for places within a mile or two of the coast there might
be a risk of it falling as rain or sleet.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

On 4 Feb, 10:07, John Hall wrote:

Both the 18Z and 00Z GFS operational runs went for very cold NEerlies by
the middle of next week, and so far the 06Z seems to be evolving very
similarly. With such cold air aloft and quite a long sea track over the
North Sea, I imagine that eastern regions could see quite a bit of snow.

Given that inter-model comparisons are very useful in this sort of
flip-flop situation, thought I'd draw people's attention to something
that the guys at Weatheronline knocked up on my request - basically a
comparison of the models for the same time - all stuck on the same
panel, along with the ensemble means, too.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-b...&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

They're also working on a chart that shows the same model, verifying
at the same time, but for forecasts going back in time - so T+24, T
+48, T+72 etc.. which I'm sure will be useful for seeing how each
individual model is coping with the current situation and how quickly
it has "come into line". The weatheronline guys have said it should be
online in a few days.

Cheers
Richard

"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
Well after three weeks of twoing and froing it looks as if the cold will
return in a few days time. Will said - "Note that 850hPa temps. will not
be
a useful guide as cold air will be below this to start with. " So I
imagine
some of the -15C 850 hPa's being modelled for London in some peturbations
would bring quite chilly conditions ;-)
Dave





Both the 18Z and 00Z GFS operational runs went for very cold NEerlies by
the middle of next week, and so far the 06Z seems to be evolving very
similarly. With such cold air aloft and quite a long sea track over the
North Sea, I imagine that eastern regions could see quite a bit of snow.
But the air would have been warmed in its lowest layer by that longish
sea track, so for places within a mile or two of the coast there might
be a risk of it falling as rain or sleet.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)
-----------------------
I think you may be right. It looks like it could pan out like the last two
cold spells with still no actual vigorous easterly eminating from the
Russian HP and beyond.
Dave

On Feb 4, 10:07*am, John Hall wrote:
In article ,
*Dave Cornwell writes:

Well after three weeks of twoing and froing it looks as if the cold will
return in a few days time. Will said - "Note that 850hPa temps. will not be
a useful guide as cold air will be below this to start with. " So I imagine
some of the -15C 850 hPa's being modelled for London in some peturbations
would bring quite chilly conditions ;-)
Dave



Both the 18Z and 00Z GFS operational runs went for very cold NEerlies by
the middle of next week, and so far the 06Z seems to be evolving very
similarly. With such cold air aloft and quite a long sea track over the
North Sea, I imagine that eastern regions could see quite a bit of snow.
But the air would have been warmed in its lowest layer by that longish
sea track, so for places within a mile or two of the coast there might
be a risk of it falling as rain or sleet.
--
John Hall
* * * * * *"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
* * * * * * from coughing."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

12z still shows wintry showers setting in as early as Monday on the
East Coast and there is the potential for more widespread snow to
follow during the week. It's looking unfortunately likely that we're
in for another cold spell that may well be still there in 10 days
time. It's been a long winter even for us in balmy South Devon. The
crocuses and the 6 daffodils which are in flower in my garden look
like they may be in for a shock next week! The ECM 00z ensembles show
a cooling trend from tomorrow, with cold weather right out past mid-
month:

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

and the gfs 06z ens show a more significant cooling next week, with a
gradual recovery to something a little milder:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

Credits to Meteogroup and netweather for the info, as always.
Caveat....could all change with this evenings model runs!

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Feb 4, 10:07 am, John Hall wrote:
In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:

Well after three weeks of twoing and froing it looks as if the cold will
return in a few days time. Will said - "Note that 850hPa temps. will not
be
a useful guide as cold air will be below this to start with. " So I
imagine
some of the -15C 850 hPa's being modelled for London in some peturbations
would bring quite chilly conditions ;-)
Dave



Both the 18Z and 00Z GFS operational runs went for very cold NEerlies by
the middle of next week, and so far the 06Z seems to be evolving very
similarly. With such cold air aloft and quite a long sea track over the
North Sea, I imagine that eastern regions could see quite a bit of snow.
But the air would have been warmed in its lowest layer by that longish
sea track, so for places within a mile or two of the coast there might
be a risk of it falling as rain or sleet.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

12z still shows wintry showers setting in as early as Monday on the
East Coast and there is the potential for more widespread snow to
follow during the week. It's looking unfortunately likely that we're
in for another cold spell that may well be still there in 10 days
time. It's been a long winter even for us in balmy South Devon. The
crocuses and the 6 daffodils which are in flower in my garden look
like they may be in for a shock next week! The ECM 00z ensembles show
a cooling trend from tomorrow, with cold weather right out past mid-
month:

==========

Long winter?
How long do winters normally last with you Paul, it is only beginning of
February!
My garden is well and truly asleep, no sign of life whatsoever, which is as
it should be in the depths of winter.
Hopefully I won't have to mow my grass till April having last cut it at end
of October, many bits are dying back and yellowing now after the snow and
frost.
Equally hopefully the daffodils will appear in last week of March (a little
later than normal) as a few are still only barely poking through the soil.
I think this final (yes final) third wave for southern Britain will be the
snowiest and may last at least until the end of February.

Will
--

On Feb 4, 5:30*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Feb 4, 10:07 am, John Hall wrote:



In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:

Well after three weeks of twoing and froing it looks as if the cold will
return in a few days time. Will said - "Note that 850hPa temps. will not
be
a useful guide as cold air will be below this to start with. " So I
imagine
some of the -15C 850 hPa's being modelled for London in some peturbations
would bring quite chilly conditions ;-)
Dave



Both the 18Z and 00Z GFS operational runs went for very cold NEerlies by
the middle of next week, and so far the 06Z seems to be evolving very
similarly. With such cold air aloft and quite a long sea track over the
North Sea, I imagine that eastern regions could see quite a bit of snow..
But the air would have been warmed in its lowest layer by that longish
sea track, so for places within a mile or two of the coast there might
be a risk of it falling as rain or sleet.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

12z still shows wintry showers setting in as early as Monday on the
East Coast and there is the potential for more widespread snow to
follow during the week. It's looking unfortunately likely that we're
in for another cold spell that may well be still there in 10 days
time. It's been a long winter even for us in balmy South Devon. The
crocuses and the 6 daffodils which are in flower in my garden look
like they may be in for a shock next week! The ECM 00z ensembles show
a cooling trend from tomorrow, with cold weather right out past mid-
month:

==========
Equally hopefully the daffodils will appear in last week of March (a little
later than normal) as a few are still only barely poking through the soil..
I think this final (yes final) third wave for southern Britain will be the
snowiest and may last at least until the end of February.

Will

Is that a hint for something warmer in the early spring?
That would be just right, a cold first half of Feb followed by a warm
and bright March and April.

Nick

On Feb 4, 5:30*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Feb 4, 10:07 am, John Hall wrote:





In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:

Well after three weeks of twoing and froing it looks as if the cold will
return in a few days time. Will said - "Note that 850hPa temps. will not
be
a useful guide as cold air will be below this to start with. " So I
imagine
some of the -15C 850 hPa's being modelled for London in some peturbations
would bring quite chilly conditions ;-)
Dave



Both the 18Z and 00Z GFS operational runs went for very cold NEerlies by
the middle of next week, and so far the 06Z seems to be evolving very
similarly. With such cold air aloft and quite a long sea track over the
North Sea, I imagine that eastern regions could see quite a bit of snow..
But the air would have been warmed in its lowest layer by that longish
sea track, so for places within a mile or two of the coast there might
be a risk of it falling as rain or sleet.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

12z still shows wintry showers setting in as early as Monday on the
East Coast and there is the potential for more widespread snow to
follow during the week. It's looking unfortunately likely that we're
in for another cold spell that may well be still there in 10 days
time. It's been a long winter even for us in balmy South Devon. The
crocuses and the 6 daffodils which are in flower in my garden look
like they may be in for a shock next week! The ECM 00z ensembles show
a cooling trend from tomorrow, with cold weather right out past mid-
month:

==========

Long winter?
How long do winters normally last with you Paul, it is only beginning of
February!
My garden is well and truly asleep, no sign of life whatsoever, which is as
it should be in the depths of winter.
Hopefully I won't have to mow my grass till April having last cut it at end
of October, many bits are dying back and yellowing now after the snow and
frost.
Equally hopefully the daffodils will appear in last week of March (a little
later than normal) as a few are still only barely poking through the soil..
I think this final (yes final) third wave for southern Britain will be the
snowiest and may last at least until the end of February.

Will
--- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Down here on the coast in Dawlish, real winter is only occasional and
has lasted for no longer a few days at a time since we moved here in
1998. It's one of the reasons we're here. As a result, this colder
winter has seemed long. "Oooh I can't wait for spring, this winter's
lasted ages" is what the dog-walking fraternity are saying and they're
a good barometer!

PS I know winter is the same length each year, but It feels like
someone stuck an extra month in this one somewhere! It's not too long
to spring, but it looks like we'll have to endure another cold spell
first!

PS I know winter is the same length each year, but It feels like
someone stuck an extra month in this one somewhere! It's not too long
to spring, but it looks like we'll have to endure another cold spell
first!

Try living in the north east of Scotland !!

On Feb 4, 5:49*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 4, 5:30*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:



"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Feb 4, 10:07 am, John Hall wrote:

In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:

Well after three weeks of twoing and froing it looks as if the cold will
return in a few days time. Will said - "Note that 850hPa temps. will not
be
a useful guide as cold air will be below this to start with. " So I
imagine
some of the -15C 850 hPa's being modelled for London in some peturbations
would bring quite chilly conditions ;-)
Dave



Both the 18Z and 00Z GFS operational runs went for very cold NEerlies by
the middle of next week, and so far the 06Z seems to be evolving very
similarly. With such cold air aloft and quite a long sea track over the
North Sea, I imagine that eastern regions could see quite a bit of snow.
But the air would have been warmed in its lowest layer by that longish
sea track, so for places within a mile or two of the coast there might
be a risk of it falling as rain or sleet.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

12z still shows wintry showers setting in as early as Monday on the
East Coast and there is the potential for more widespread snow to
follow during the week. It's looking unfortunately likely that we're
in for another cold spell that may well be still there in 10 days
time. It's been a long winter even for us in balmy South Devon. The
crocuses and the 6 daffodils which are in flower in my garden look
like they may be in for a shock next week! The ECM 00z ensembles show
a cooling trend from tomorrow, with cold weather right out past mid-
month:

==========

Long winter?
How long do winters normally last with you Paul, it is only beginning of
February!
My garden is well and truly asleep, no sign of life whatsoever, which is as
it should be in the depths of winter.
Hopefully I won't have to mow my grass till April having last cut it at end
of October, many bits are dying back and yellowing now after the snow and
frost.
Equally hopefully the daffodils will appear in last week of March (a little
later than normal) as a few are still only barely poking through the soil.
I think this final (yes final) third wave for southern Britain will be the
snowiest and may last at least until the end of February.

Will
--- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Down here on the coast in Dawlish, real winter is only occasional and
has lasted for no longer a few days at a time since we moved here in
1998. It's one of the reasons we're here. As a result, this colder
winter has seemed long. "Oooh I can't wait for spring, this winter's
lasted ages" is what the dog-walking fraternity are saying and they're
a good barometer!

PS I know winter is the same length each year, but It feels like
someone stuck an extra month in this one somewhere! It's not too long
to spring, but it looks like we'll have to endure another cold spell
first!

Strangely this winter doesn't seem to have seemed particularly long to
me - but that's probably because IMO the most depressing aspect of
winter is the early sunset, and that's the same each year. So whatever
the temperature does in the next week or so (and I'd welcome the
promised cold spell) it feels like winter's slowly on the way out.

Nick