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#11
February 7th 10, 02:16 PM
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Cold, frosty and wintry on Valentine's Day
On Feb 7, 11:35*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 7, 10:01*am, Dawlish wrote: On Feb 6, 8:09*am, Dawlish wrote: On Feb 5, 6:48*pm, James Brown wrote: In message , Dawlish writes On Feb 5, 5:04*pm, "Keith(Southend)" wrote: Will Hand wrote: The technique that I use recognises the times - and those times are few, IMO, as a result of model watching for years now - ... I've been model watching for years Will, but it's never helped me forecast the weather ;-) -- Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net Heh! Don't blame Will: that was me who scribbled that Keith! *~  )12z gfs keeps the same theme and the 00z ECM ensembles paints a cold picture with both operationals ever so close to the ensemble mean for once. So nailed on then....8)) http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/...semble_forecas... Errr - I'm not sure Keith meant that a meteorological model Paul - though apologies if I have misunderstood the smiley! Cheers James -- James Brown- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - *)) Well they definitely don't want to be doing lingerie shoots outside next week! It looks "blooming cold" (as santa Claus would say!) for a fair old time. This winter has further to run. The ECM and the gfs paint the same, cold picture out to T240 and beyond. No hints of the Atlantic breaking through yet. When spring finally does come, with the alleviation of this coming cold, it will come with relief for many! The great British public are going to have to grin and bear it over the next 10 days at least. There's a very tight ECM ensemble plume, right out to the 14th/15th and the operational runs have remained amazingly and unusually close to the mean for the last 2 sets. http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/...semble_forecas.... Cold to 10 days. Even when my confidence is high, I've always waited 3 days before another forecast - to hopefully shrug off accusations of "cashing in" on what I see as a confident situation - and I would expect to be saying that the cold will extend past mid-month tomorrow, but you can never be sure. I've read *that models can be capricious things!- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Not much has changed in the model output this morning. GFS and ECM are looking cold past mid-month now and there are possibilities for snow in the east throughout next week and in other areas later next week, into the weekend and perhaps beyond - and again when this situation breaks down. The detail will develop as we get closer. The 00z gfs ens confirm the cold spell, but hint at a mildening beyond mid-month. I wouldn't set too much store by that yet, but hope springs and all that! http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/-Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Try again?- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Anything yet? |
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