That's enough for me. 5 gfs runs with agreement from the ECM leads me
to a 10-day forecast.

**At T240, on Valentine's Day, the UK will still be in the grip of a
cold spell. There will be snow lying in some areas of lowland Britain
and that snow will have been on the ground for some time, causing
disruption and travel problems. On the 14th, the wind direction will
be from a continental, or a northern source and temperatures across
much of Britain will be below average.**

Well there you go. That, for me, is the probable outcome of 5 days of
some of the most interesting model watching of recent years. Dig out
the thermals, we've got a week of cold coming, starting at the end of
the weekend.

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
That's enough for me. 5 gfs runs with agreement from the ECM leads me
to a 10-day forecast.

**At T240, on Valentine's Day, the UK will still be in the grip of a
cold spell. There will be snow lying in some areas of lowland Britain
and that snow will have been on the ground for some time, causing
disruption and travel problems. On the 14th, the wind direction will
be from a continental, or a northern source and temperatures across
much of Britain will be below average.**

Well there you go. That, for me, is the probable outcome of 5 days of
some of the most interesting model watching of recent years. Dig out
the thermals, we've got a week of cold coming, starting at the end of
the weekend.

I think this is the models forecast rather than your own

You could look back over the last 2 months weather and just as easily draw
the same cold forecast in conclusion, indeed I'm sure the models do just
that in their computations.

Some of us, perhaps most indeed, haven't been silly enough to put the
thermals away yet based on the mild T240 models earlier in the week as we
have been experiencing very cold weather - for 2 months. And snow lying on
the 14th of Feb somewhere in lowland UK must be very normal given it's
probably about the most likely date on the calender for this to occur.

Still, forecasting an easterly or northerly at 10 days is not exactly what
the models are doing, they favour high pressure over the UK more I think by
then?
Not sure, that being the case, why you think some of Britain will have
normal or above normal temperatures?

Alex.

On Feb 5, 7:38*am, "Alex Stephens Jr"
wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

That's enough for me. 5 gfs runs with agreement from the ECM leads me
to a 10-day forecast.

**At T240, on Valentine's Day, the UK will still be in the grip of a
cold spell. There will be snow lying in some areas of lowland Britain
and that snow will have been on the ground for some time, causing
disruption and travel problems. On the 14th, the wind direction will
be from a continental, or a northern source and temperatures across
much of Britain will be below average.**

Well there you go. That, for me, is the probable outcome of 5 days of
some of the most interesting model watching of recent years. Dig out
the thermals, we've got a week of cold coming, starting at the end of
the weekend.

I think this is the models forecast rather than your own
Alex.

Not really Alex, that's not the way this works. *))

The models show what they will at 10 days. If we took their output at
that distance as a forecast, the accuracy rate would be so low as to
be completely unusable. This past week is evidence enough of that.

The technique that I use recognises the times - and those times are
few, IMO, as a result of model watching for years now - when the
output at 10 days *can* be trusted and that's all I do with these
forecasts. At present, I think it can. Over the last week, you
couldn't believe any of the model output (their "forecasts") at all
really, could you? Hence any forecast, based on this technique, would
only have had a low confidence of it achieving outcome.

Of course the forecast is taken from the models; all my 79 forecasts
have used a very similar technique, but as a result of doing all those
forecasts, I feel that I'm able to say, with 75%+ confidence, that the
UK weather on Valentine's Day will be as in the forecast above. Of
course, that means I'll be wrong about 20-25% of the time, but I'd
take that accuracy. If I had, say, to organise a ad hoc Valentine's
Day speed skating event in the fens, that I needed at least a week to
prepare, I'd now be beginning to put preparations in place, as I think
I would have a 75% chance of cold weather providing the right
conditions. I wouldn't have started those preparations during last
last week, despite the models showing cold conditions at 10 days.

Will Hand wrote:

The technique that I use recognises the times - and those times are
few, IMO, as a result of model watching for years now - ...

I've been model watching for years Will, but it's never helped me
forecast the weather ;-)

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

On Feb 5, 5:04*pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:
Will Hand wrote:
The technique that I use recognises the times - and those times are
few, IMO, as a result of model watching for years now - ...

I've been model watching for years Will, but it's never helped me
forecast the weather ;-)

--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Heh! Don't blame Will: that was me who scribbled that Keith! *~)

12z gfs keeps the same theme and the 00z ECM ensembles paints a cold
picture with both operationals ever so close to the ensemble mean for
once. So nailed on then....8))

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

In message
,
Dawlish writes
On Feb 5, 5:04*pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:
Will Hand wrote:
The technique that I use recognises the times - and those times are
few, IMO, as a result of model watching for years now - ...

I've been model watching for years Will, but it's never helped me
forecast the weather ;-)

--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Heh! Don't blame Will: that was me who scribbled that Keith! *~)

12z gfs keeps the same theme and the 00z ECM ensembles paints a cold
picture with both operationals ever so close to the ensemble mean for
once. So nailed on then....8))

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

Errr - I'm not sure Keith meant that a meteorological model Paul -
though apologies if I have misunderstood the smiley!

Cheers

James
--
James Brown

On Feb 5, 5:28*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 5, 5:04*pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:

Will Hand wrote:
The technique that I use recognises the times - and those times are
few, IMO, as a result of model watching for years now - ...

I've been model watching for years Will, but it's never helped me
forecast the weather ;-)

--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Heh! Don't blame Will: that was me who scribbled that Keith! *~)

12z gfs keeps the same theme and the 00z ECM ensembles paints a cold
picture with both operationals ever so close to the ensemble mean for
once. So nailed on then....8))

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/...semble_forecas...

12z ECM continues the theme and has easterlies as the solution on
almost all days from T+72-240hrs. Brrrr. Potential for snow and
penetrating frosts in most areas from MOnday onwards

On Feb 5, 6:48*pm, James Brown
wrote:
In message
,
Dawlish writes





On Feb 5, 5:04*pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:
Will Hand wrote:
The technique that I use recognises the times - and those times are
few, IMO, as a result of model watching for years now - ...

I've been model watching for years Will, but it's never helped me
forecast the weather ;-)

--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Heh! Don't blame Will: that was me who scribbled that Keith! *~)

12z gfs keeps the same theme and the 00z ECM ensembles paints a cold
picture with both operationals ever so close to the ensemble mean for
once. So nailed on then....8))

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/...semble_forecas...

Errr - I'm not sure Keith meant that a meteorological model Paul -
though apologies if I have misunderstood the smiley!

Cheers

James
--
James Brown- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

*))

Well they definitely don't want to be doing lingerie shoots outside
next week!

It looks "blooming cold" (as santa Claus would say!) for a fair old
time. This winter has further to run. The ECM and the gfs paint the
same, cold picture out to T240 and beyond. No hints of the Atlantic
breaking through yet. When spring finally does come, with the
alleviation of this coming cold, it will come with relief for many!
The great British public are going to have to grin and bear it over
the next 10 days at least. There's a very tight ECM ensemble plume,
right out to the 14th/15th and the operational runs have remained
amazingly and unusually close to the mean for the last 2 sets.

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

Cold to 10 days. Even when my confidence is high, I've always waited 3
days before another forecast - to hopefully shrug off accusations of
"cashing in" on what I see as a confident situation - and I would
expect to be saying that the cold will extend past mid-month tomorrow,
but you can never be sure. I've read that models can be capricious
things!

On Feb 6, 8:09*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 5, 6:48*pm, James Brown
wrote:





In message
,
Dawlish writes

On Feb 5, 5:04*pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:
Will Hand wrote:
The technique that I use recognises the times - and those times are
few, IMO, as a result of model watching for years now - ...

I've been model watching for years Will, but it's never helped me
forecast the weather ;-)

--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Heh! Don't blame Will: that was me who scribbled that Keith! *~)

12z gfs keeps the same theme and the 00z ECM ensembles paints a cold
picture with both operationals ever so close to the ensemble mean for
once. So nailed on then....8))

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/...semble_forecas....

Errr - I'm not sure Keith meant that a meteorological model Paul -
though apologies if I have misunderstood the smiley!

Cheers

James
--
James Brown- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

*))

Well they definitely don't want to be doing lingerie shoots outside
next week!

It looks "blooming cold" (as santa Claus would say!) for a fair old
time. This winter has further to run. The ECM and the gfs paint the
same, cold picture out to T240 and beyond. No hints of the Atlantic
breaking through yet. When spring finally does come, with the
alleviation of this coming cold, it will come with relief for many!
The great British public are going to have to grin and bear it over
the next 10 days at least. There's a very tight ECM ensemble plume,
right out to the 14th/15th and the operational runs have remained
amazingly and unusually close to the mean for the last 2 sets.

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/...semble_forecas...

Cold to 10 days. Even when my confidence is high, I've always waited 3
days before another forecast - to hopefully shrug off accusations of
"cashing in" on what I see as a confident situation - and I would
expect to be saying that the cold will extend past mid-month tomorrow,
but you can never be sure. I've read *that models can be capricious
things!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Not much has changed in the model output this morning. GFS and ECM are
looking cold past mid-month now and there are possibilities for snow
in the east throughout next week and in other areas later next week,
into the weekend and perhaps beyond - and again when this situation
breaks down. The detail will develop as we get closer.

The 00z gfs ens confirm the cold spell, but hint at a mildening beyond
mid-month. I wouldn't set too much store by that yet, but hope springs
and all that!

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

On Feb 7, 10:01*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 6, 8:09*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Feb 5, 6:48*pm, James Brown
wrote:

In message
,
Dawlish writes

On Feb 5, 5:04*pm, "Keith(Southend)"
wrote:
Will Hand wrote:
The technique that I use recognises the times - and those times are
few, IMO, as a result of model watching for years now - ...

I've been model watching for years Will, but it's never helped me
forecast the weather ;-)

--
Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Heh! Don't blame Will: that was me who scribbled that Keith! *~)

12z gfs keeps the same theme and the 00z ECM ensembles paints a cold
picture with both operationals ever so close to the ensemble mean for
once. So nailed on then....8))

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/...semble_forecas...

Errr - I'm not sure Keith meant that a meteorological model Paul -
though apologies if I have misunderstood the smiley!

Cheers

James
--
James Brown- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

*))

Well they definitely don't want to be doing lingerie shoots outside
next week!

It looks "blooming cold" (as santa Claus would say!) for a fair old
time. This winter has further to run. The ECM and the gfs paint the
same, cold picture out to T240 and beyond. No hints of the Atlantic
breaking through yet. When spring finally does come, with the
alleviation of this coming cold, it will come with relief for many!
The great British public are going to have to grin and bear it over
the next 10 days at least. There's a very tight ECM ensemble plume,
right out to the 14th/15th and the operational runs have remained
amazingly and unusually close to the mean for the last 2 sets.

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/...semble_forecas...

Cold to 10 days. Even when my confidence is high, I've always waited 3
days before another forecast - to hopefully shrug off accusations of
"cashing in" on what I see as a confident situation - and I would
expect to be saying that the cold will extend past mid-month tomorrow,
but you can never be sure. I've read *that models can be capricious
things!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Not much has changed in the model output this morning. GFS and ECM are
looking cold past mid-month now and there are possibilities for snow
in the east throughout next week and in other areas later next week,
into the weekend and perhaps beyond - and again when this situation
breaks down. The detail will develop as we get closer.

The 00z gfs ens confirm the cold spell, but hint at a mildening beyond
mid-month. I wouldn't set too much store by that yet, but hope springs
and all that!

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

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