A slow warm towards Spring? The ECM 12z and gfs 00z ens would have us
think so:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

I'm happy about having said, 5 days ago, that it will be cold to
Valentine's Day, but after that, a change to a slightly less cold
Northerly is probable and then.........a very slow warm towards
spring, I suppose. There's little to suggest there will be a quick
breakdown of the cold spell. The Atlantic returns towards the edge of
gfs reality, but that's not something I'd like to say would happen on
any particular day, just yet!

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
A slow warm towards Spring? The ECM 12z and gfs 00z ens would have us
think so:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

I'm happy about having said, 5 days ago, that it will be cold to
Valentine's Day, but after that, a change to a slightly less cold
Northerly is probable and then.........a very slow warm towards
spring, I suppose. There's little to suggest there will be a quick
breakdown of the cold spell. The Atlantic returns towards the edge of
gfs reality, but that's not something I'd like to say would happen on
any particular day, just yet!

And the latter part of the 00Z GFS run seemed to be something of a mild
outlier. The ensemble gradually warmed over time in the second half of
the period, but by the end of it was still slightly below average. I'm
not sure how much one should read into that warming trend, as I think
the ensemble runs almost always have a tendency to revert towards
average later on, as "random noise" starts to dominate.

The GFS 06Z operational run is interesting, as after the northerly in
just over a weeks time it retrogresses the Low responsible so that
eventually we are in a southerly. Though Highs retrogress from time to
time, it's quite rare to see a Low doing it.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
A slow warm towards Spring? The ECM 12z and gfs 00z ens would have us
think so:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

I'm happy about having said, 5 days ago, that it will be cold to
Valentine's Day, but after that, a change to a slightly less cold
Northerly is probable and then.........a very slow warm towards
spring, I suppose. There's little to suggest there will be a quick
breakdown of the cold spell. The Atlantic returns towards the edge of
gfs reality, but that's not something I'd like to say would happen on
any particular day, just yet!

Today's 12Z model runs seem to agree on another Low coming down from the
north in about a week's time, but there seems a great deal of
uncertainty concerning where it will go after that. (If it goes
anywhere, that is. The ECM operational run seems to keep it hanging
around more or less on top of us.)
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

On Feb 9, 8:11*pm, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
A slow warm towards Spring? The ECM 12z and gfs 00z ens would have us
think so:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/...semble_forecas...

I'm happy about having said, 5 days ago, that it will be cold to
Valentine's Day, but after that, a change to a slightly less cold
Northerly is probable and then.........a very slow warm towards
spring, I suppose. There's little to suggest there will be a quick
breakdown of the cold spell. The Atlantic returns towards the edge of
gfs reality, but that's not something I'd like to say would happen on
any particular day, just yet!

Today's 12Z model runs seem to agree on another Low coming down from the
north in about a week's time, but there seems a great deal of
uncertainty concerning where it will go after that. (If it goes
anywhere, that is. The ECM operational run seems to keep it hanging
around more or less on top of us.)
--
John Hall
* * * * * *"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
* * * * * * from coughing."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

Similar 12z ECM ens from yesterday and a leap in the cumulative
rainfall graph around Tuesday onwards, of next week, in London. Rain,
or snow, from that predicted Arctic low? (as an aside, I do wish
they'd call it a "precipitation" forecast and not a "rainfall" one).

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

00z gfs ensemble mean doesn't now show any gradual warming, past mid-
month. As long as that jet stays south, there will always be a
question mark over any forecast warming in the edge of reality ens
spaghetti.

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
On Feb 9, 8:11*pm, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
A slow warm towards Spring? The ECM 12z and gfs 00z ens would have us
think so:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/...semble_forecas...

I'm happy about having said, 5 days ago, that it will be cold to
Valentine's Day, but after that, a change to a slightly less cold
Northerly is probable and then.........a very slow warm towards
spring, I suppose. There's little to suggest there will be a quick
breakdown of the cold spell. The Atlantic returns towards the edge of
gfs reality, but that's not something I'd like to say would happen on
any particular day, just yet!

Today's 12Z model runs seem to agree on another Low coming down from the
north in about a week's time, but there seems a great deal of
uncertainty concerning where it will go after that. (If it goes
anywhere, that is. The ECM operational run seems to keep it hanging
around more or less on top of us.)

Similar 12z ECM ens from yesterday and a leap in the cumulative
rainfall graph around Tuesday onwards, of next week, in London. Rain,
or snow, from that predicted Arctic low? (as an aside, I do wish
they'd call it a "precipitation" forecast and not a "rainfall" one).

http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/..._forecast.html

00z gfs ensemble mean doesn't now show any gradual warming, past mid-
month. As long as that jet stays south, there will always be a
question mark over any forecast warming in the edge of reality ens
spaghetti.


The latest runs don't look so favourable. Perhaps they haven't read
Will's posting of yesterday.

The 00Z ECMWF and UKMO both bring the low south just to the west of the
UK. The 00Z GFS operational run and ensemble had kept it just to our
east, but the 06Z operational run brings it down across the country,
which obviously isn't quite so good.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)