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Old February 12th 10, 08:24 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Arctic Sea ice: a low summer maximum in prospect?

We're approaching the 2010 maximum. Last year this fell on the 9th
March, but present indications may be that we're looking towards a
very low summer maximum, perhaps a record summer low.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Ice build-up this year has been slow and especially recently, the ice
extent has been struggling to increase. My reasoning for this
prediction of a very low minimum is that the Northern Hemisphere
synoptic pattern throughout the freezing season has meant that the
Arctic has been unusually warm and this pattern looks set to continue
to the end of this month. Should this be the case, it leaves the
Arctic Sea ice very vulnerable to melting through the summer.

The amount of multi-year ice has decreased considerably over the last
30 years, leaving, younger ice in many areas. With the warmer Arctic
this winter, even this this ice is bound to be thinner than in the
past. Thus melting is likely to be very rapid and the prospect of a
record melt year, lower than 2007, is quite possible.

As a result, I'd expect the ice low in 2007, given an average season
for temperatures and synoptics to be close to the record set in 2007.
If the Arctic warmth continues and synoptics are favourable, the
record will be beaten fairly easily. If we get a stormy end to the
melt season, as in 2006, the outcome may not be record-breaking but
even so, I would expect the 2010 ice minimum to be below that of last
year.


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