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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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We're approaching the 2010 maximum. Last year this fell on the 9th
March, but present indications may be that we're looking towards a very low summer maximum, perhaps a record summer low. http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm Ice build-up this year has been slow and especially recently, the ice extent has been struggling to increase. My reasoning for this prediction of a very low minimum is that the Northern Hemisphere synoptic pattern throughout the freezing season has meant that the Arctic has been unusually warm and this pattern looks set to continue to the end of this month. Should this be the case, it leaves the Arctic Sea ice very vulnerable to melting through the summer. The amount of multi-year ice has decreased considerably over the last 30 years, leaving, younger ice in many areas. With the warmer Arctic this winter, even this this ice is bound to be thinner than in the past. Thus melting is likely to be very rapid and the prospect of a record melt year, lower than 2007, is quite possible. As a result, I'd expect the ice low in 2007, given an average season for temperatures and synoptics to be close to the record set in 2007. If the Arctic warmth continues and synoptics are favourable, the record will be beaten fairly easily. If we get a stormy end to the melt season, as in 2006, the outcome may not be record-breaking but even so, I would expect the 2010 ice minimum to be below that of last year. |
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