Looking ahead a bit, would anyone like to make any vague predictions
for spring?

I say that as there seems to be a slight correlation between winter
weather and that of the following spring, at least since 1979. In the
years which had distinctly colder than average winters, and which the
cold continued into the 2nd half of February (so1982, 1991 or 1997 =
no, as they all turned mild either mid February or before, but 1979,
1985, 1986, 1987 and 1996 = yes) there seems to be a tendency for
spring also to have more cold spells than normal, and worryingly
perhaps, for some of those, the summer to be poor as well (all but
1996). Another tendency is that following easterly Februaries (1981,
83, 86) March then tends to be very westerly, ironically perhaps,
after a blocked February - I guess the jet moves north.

Is there a real scientific reason for any of these links, i.e. are we
looking at facing a cold spring and poor summer, or is this just
coincidence?

Nick

In article
,
Nick writes:
Looking ahead a bit, would anyone like to make any vague predictions
for spring?

I say that as there seems to be a slight correlation between winter
weather and that of the following spring, at least since 1979. In the
years which had distinctly colder than average winters, and which the
cold continued into the 2nd half of February (so1982, 1991 or 1997 =
no, as they all turned mild either mid February or before, but 1979,
1985, 1986, 1987 and 1996 = yes) there seems to be a tendency for
spring also to have more cold spells than normal, and worryingly
perhaps, for some of those, the summer to be poor as well (all but
1996). Another tendency is that following easterly Februaries (1981,
83, 86) March then tends to be very westerly, ironically perhaps,
after a blocked February - I guess the jet moves north.

Is there a real scientific reason for any of these links, i.e. are we
looking at facing a cold spring and poor summer, or is this just
coincidence?

Nick

One thing that could be a factor is sea temperatures. The North Sea,
Irish Sea and Channel must be colder than usual, and will take some time
to warm up. That could make a cold spring more likely.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

On Sunday 14 Feb 2010 09:43, Nick scribbled:

Looking ahead a bit, would anyone like to make any vague predictions
for spring?

I say that as there seems to be a slight correlation between winter
weather and that of the following spring, at least since 1979. In the
years which had distinctly colder than average winters, and which the
cold continued into the 2nd half of February (so1982, 1991 or 1997 =
no, as they all turned mild either mid February or before, but 1979,
1985, 1986, 1987 and 1996 = yes) there seems to be a tendency for
spring also to have more cold spells than normal, and worryingly
perhaps, for some of those, the summer to be poor as well (all but
1996). Another tendency is that following easterly Februaries (1981,
83, 86) March then tends to be very westerly, ironically perhaps,
after a blocked February - I guess the jet moves north.

Is there a real scientific reason for any of these links, i.e. are we
looking at facing a cold spring and poor summer, or is this just
coincidence?


N Atlantic SST pattern remains favourable for blocking patterns with highs
to the north of the UK but putting any more detail on that would be awkward.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

On Feb 14, 9:43*am, Nick wrote:
Looking ahead a bit, would anyone like to make any vague predictions
for spring?

I say that as there seems to be a slight correlation between winter
weather and that of the following spring, at least since 1979. In the
years which had distinctly colder than average winters, and which the
cold continued into the 2nd half of February (so1982, 1991 or 1997 =
no, as they all turned mild either mid February or before, but 1979,
1985, 1986, 1987 and 1996 = yes) there seems to be a tendency for
spring also to have more cold spells than normal, and worryingly
perhaps, for some of those, the summer to be poor as well (all but
1996). Another tendency is that following easterly Februaries (1981,
83, 86) *March then tends to be very westerly, ironically perhaps,
after a blocked February - I guess the jet moves north.

Is there a real scientific reason for any of these links, i.e. are we
looking at facing a cold spring and poor summer, or is this just
coincidence?

Nick

Hindcast prediction in a warming trend, but coming off the back of 2
consecutive summers which have been a little colder:

1/2 a warmer than average summer, 6/4 a cooler one. i.e. it is likely
to be warmer than the most recent Manley 30-year mean.

No idea about temperatures during the transition period of spring, or
about spring/summer precipitation - I don't think either is in any way
predictable, with any confidence, ATM
*))

On Sun, 14 Feb 2010 10:09:39 +0000, John Hall wrote in


One thing that could be a factor is sea temperatures. The North Sea,
Irish Sea and Channel must be colder than usual, and will take some time
to warm up. That could make a cold spring more likely.

I'm reminded of Gordon Manley's words at the end of February 1963:

"and it looks like nearly seven chances out of eight
that March will be appreciably colder than normal."
:-)

--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 14/02/2010 12:07:09 GMT

"Mike Tullett" wrote in message
...
On Sun, 14 Feb 2010 10:09:39 +0000, John Hall wrote in


One thing that could be a factor is sea temperatures. The North Sea,
Irish Sea and Channel must be colder than usual, and will take some time
to warm up. That could make a cold spring more likely.

I'm reminded of Gordon Manley's words at the end of February 1963:

"and it looks like nearly seven chances out of eight
that March will be appreciably colder than normal."
:-)

--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 14/02/2010 12:07:09 GMT

Wise words. And with it almost certain to be the coldest winter in this area
since 1978/79 - which had a very cold Spring, I'm inclined to think this
Spring will be the coolest in quite a few years.

Alex

Alex Stephens Jr wrote:
"Mike Tullett" wrote in message
...
On Sun, 14 Feb 2010 10:09:39 +0000, John Hall wrote in


One thing that could be a factor is sea temperatures. The North Sea,
Irish Sea and Channel must be colder than usual, and will take some time
to warm up. That could make a cold spring more likely.
I'm reminded of Gordon Manley's words at the end of February 1963:

"and it looks like nearly seven chances out of eight
that March will be appreciably colder than normal."
:-)

--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 14/02/2010 12:07:09 GMT

Wise words. And with it almost certain to be the coldest winter in this area
since 1978/79 - which had a very cold Spring, I'm inclined to think this
Spring will be the coolest in quite a few years.

Alex



Oh great, another five month winter.

"Alex Stephens Jr" wrote :
"Mike Tullett" wrote:

One thing that could be a factor is sea temperatures. The North Sea,
Irish Sea and Channel must be colder than usual, and will take some time
to warm up. That could make a cold spring more likely.

I'm reminded of Gordon Manley's words at the end of February 1963:

"and it looks like nearly seven chances out of eight
that March will be appreciably colder than normal."
:-)

Wise words. And with it almost certain to be the coldest winter in this
area since 1978/79 - which had a very cold Spring, I'm inclined to think
this Spring will be the coolest in quite a few years.

Ah, but Mike's point, I think, is that March 1963 was pretty average,
temperature-wise.

Philip

On Sun, 14 Feb 2010 13:26:41 -0000, Alex Stephens Jr wrote in


I'm reminded of Gordon Manley's words at the end of February 1963:

"and it looks like nearly seven chances out of eight
that March will be appreciably colder than normal."
:-)

Wise words. And with it almost certain to be the coldest winter in this area
since 1978/79 - which had a very cold Spring, I'm inclined to think this
Spring will be the coolest in quite a few years.

Ah but the CET for March 1963 was 6.0C, on the mild side.

--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13°N 6.69°W posted 14/02/2010 17:11:28 GMT

"Mike Tullett" wrote in message
...
On Sun, 14 Feb 2010 13:26:41 -0000, Alex Stephens Jr wrote in


I'm reminded of Gordon Manley's words at the end of February 1963:

"and it looks like nearly seven chances out of eight
that March will be appreciably colder than normal."
:-)

Wise words. And with it almost certain to be the coldest winter in this
area
since 1978/79 - which had a very cold Spring, I'm inclined to think this
Spring will be the coolest in quite a few years.

Ah but the CET for March 1963 was 6.0C, on the mild side.


Well speaking very locally, my garden is the deadest I have ever seen it at
this time of year. Nothing is growing. No bulbs, no snowdrops, no primroses
coming through - nothing. The ground is very cold and still frozen hard. The
grass is dying and yellowing. With the main jet still well south I cannot
see it warming up much here until mid-March at the earliest when the sun
comes up over the equator and really starts to influence the general
circulation in the NH. So I think that early Spring (i.e. April) is likely
to be colder than normal but then things warming up rapidly after that. I
reckon all my flowers will come at once :-)

Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
--