"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Feb 17, 8:46 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
Hence his motto "more runs are needed"

"TT" wrote in message

...



lawrence, dont waste your time.

pauls taking crap again.
the crap looks like dawlish gravy. you know, like when you have the
runs.

Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Feb 17, 7:58 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Feb 17, 5:43 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Feb 16, 11:11 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
Let me ask you Paul apply the same criteria of success rate to the
Met
Office and then lets compare.- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
Neither USA forecast was "spot on", especially this winter, as was
correctly pointed out to you by SRH. That's why I said 2/3 correct.
The contiguous USA was 0.3C above average and the NE was, in fact,
the
warmest area in January (scroll down to the dot maps). Thus no-one
will believe you when you trot out things like "his forecast was spot
on". That's just silly. It wasn't.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/index.php
If you don't see what Joe (or Accuweather) can gain financially or
personally by doing this you must really live in an alternate
universe
Lawrence. He works for a commercial organisation, for goodness sake
and his forecast accuracy, over 5 USA winters is *less than 20%*;
fact.
If you feel he's such a good forecaster, you're going to have to do
better than you are in detailig where his forecasts have been
accurate. So far, you have been incorrect on how accurate his USA
winter forecast has been and you've not presented the other forecast
with any analysis of why it is accurate, more than saying "it was
spot
on". Was it? How do we know? You are seeing what you want to see and
not referring to data as usual.
The MetO find seasonal forecasting as difficult as anybody, though
they are at 3/5, I believe over the last 5 years regarding overall
winter temperatures; being wrong on the last 2. Same criteria; 60%
accuracy as regards seasonal temperatures. Their success in
predicting
the winter sign of the NAO lies at about 65%, but that's not the same
as predicting the winter temperatures. Precipitation levels are even
more difficult.
My point is that *no-one* can forecast seasonal weather with
reasonable accuracy ATM. Not the MetO, not NOAA, not the USA weather
service, not the ECM, not private agencies and not individuals; *no-
one*. Thus you can stop trying single out the MetO to try to bolster
your awfully prejudiced views about them and stop lauding one
American
forecaster as some sage who's ahead of the game. He's not.
Seasonal forecasting ATM, is simply not possible with reasonable
accuracy in the UK. Current research, especially using SSTs, may
improve that situation in years to come, but I'm not expecting a
great
deal, which is frustrating and disappointing, but that's the present
state of affairs.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++++++++++
Do you ignore the facts on purpose?
As for what has Joe to gain? Are you really that demented that you
can't
see
the difference between private and public sector forecasting?
Although the GFS is free Accuweather still have to sell their
products
whereas the MetOffice just reap it in from the poor old taxpyer who
fr
their
money get an outrageously bad summer and winter forecast of UKMO in
addition
to the shrill ludicrous drama queen style endless conveyor belt of
weather
warnings. Yet as a tax payer can you opt out and say I don't want to
pay
this year for such a poor service -no of course you bloody can't.
However accuweather if they fgot it as badly wrong as UKMO they would
lose
their customer base. You see any state run oufit like UKMO or local
authorities can get away with absolute murder with the tax and
Council
tax
payers money. However back to the forecast.
Joe October predicted winter forecast for the USA was stunning he
showed
exactly where the snowfall and colder temperaatures would be . At
1.40
he
shows the snowfall and at 2 minutes he shows the temperartures which
by
the
way he has as well above normal for a vast swathe of the NW ; just
below
Vancouver where he also has below normal snowfall. If anyone cannot
see
and concede how accurate that forecast then they are either lying or
stark
raving
looney.http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-...795588001&chan...
Now try doing an analysis on the accuracy of the Mett Office and
their
BBQ
summer and very mild winter with the same criteria you've used for
Joe.
I've analysed the last 5 years MetO winter forecasts in my last post.
You've managed to repeat every word of that post twice. Now try
actually reading what you are re-posting and see that com,pared to
Joe, the MetO has a better record. Same criteria for their respective
home areas: Meto = 60% correct. Joe = 20%. Shame, but you'd know
already if you'd read what I wrote.

January had *above* average temperatures in the USA, not the below
average temperatures that Joe predicted. Again, read what I wrote.

Joe has a 20% accuracy over 5 winters. Do you feel that is good
enough to laud him as a forecaster? Again, read what I wrote and
answer the question asked.

I'll repeat this bit for you as you'll try to squirm out of answering
that last question; as you almost always do when the question gets too
hard. I've taken out the smilies this time, as quite frankly, your
determination to not answer awkward questions is legendary and thus
simply doesn't deserve them.

"Please don't try to deflect the question by trying to impune someone
else, or talking about Joe's views on GW, or ranting about the the
conspiracy that is AGW, or repeating near-libellous untruths about
the
MetO."

You did exactly what I asked you not to do and you've tried to tar the
MetO, totally unfairly, yet again to avoid commenting on *******i's
laughably poor record in forecasting USA winters.

Paul I don't want to appear rude but some of your language like

"I'll repeat this bit for you as you'll try to squirm out of
answering"
and
!repeating near-libellous untruths about the MetO"

leads me to suspect you have a mental helath problem. As I said in the
post
I don't belive you are lying , I think you are twisted, no demented,
in
the
fact your lack off objectivity and graciousness to accept that Joe's
LRF
was
**** hot; especially in the light of the MetO's public funded crap.

Consider that the head of UKMO is on higher salary apparently then
that
of
the PM. Now was that libelous or a FACT.

weed it and sweep- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Amazing. You've done it again and not answered the question about
Joe's 20% US winter forecast accuracy over 5 years. does one forecast
that is no more than 66% accurate (Jan 2010 was well above average in
the NE USA; Joe forecast it would be colder) mean that he's a "****
hot" forecaster? Is that how you judge someone's forecasting
capabilities?

Lawrence; just because you repeat something, with no decent evidence
to back it up, doesn't actually make that thing true. Especially when
the facts point to the exact opposite of what you are saying being
true. Why do you do this?

Don't squirm out of the question this time please, Answer what you've
been asked.

No your doing it Paul. For starters the post was about Joe's video on
the
PDO and NAO. But as you and others seem to hate Joe far beyond reason I
just pointed out that his summer and winter forecast for the USA was
spot
on. I've never mentioned any of his previous stuff but you do.

--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ----
Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Lawrence; how nany more times do I have to ask the same question??
It's groundhog Day with Antarctic ice and it's relationship with GC.
You couldn't explain that one either, yet you return to that and Joe's
lack of LR skills ad infinitum; still saying that both have a
particular relationship to something, when in reality the pattern
simply does not exist in the way you'd like to think it does.

Again, his winter forecast was not 100% correct (spot on, **** hot, as
you put it....) as January in the NE of the USA was *not* as had
predicted. It was warmer than average. How many times do you have to
read that before you cotton on to the fact that his winter forecst was
not 100% accurate for the USA?


PS Best not to empathise with stalkers Lawrence.

PS. That's not a catchphrase of mine! You've learned it from people on
TWO and you are trotting it out as another inaccuracy. Your whole set
of arguments are riddled with them! *))

Paul that's precisely it. Just as when some one is making a joke or when the
AGW lobby throws out one thing and another happens instead. You are simple
not able to distinguish tone and spin. Its almost like an autism.

Look at what you've just said.

"You've learned it from people on
TWO and you are trotting it out as another inaccuracy."

Are you kidding do you really believe that I'm trying to suggest that you
use that motto? You really don't get it do you, you take everything
literally and in your little world its all black and white. As I've said
your head seems to be drawn towards the rectum of any one you feel has some
clout and then you canoodle up them pat their egos even whether you agree
with them or not.

Dawlish wrote:
nannying.

yep



Lawrence; how nany more times do I have to ask the same question??

On Feb 17, 10:36*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Feb 17, 8:46 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:





Hence his motto "more runs are needed"

"TT" wrote in message

...

lawrence, dont waste your time.

pauls taking crap again.
the crap looks like dawlish gravy. you know, like when you have the
runs.

Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
....
On Feb 17, 7:58 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Feb 17, 5:43 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Feb 16, 11:11 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
Let me ask you Paul apply the same criteria of success rate to the
Met
Office and then lets compare.- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
Neither USA forecast was "spot on", especially this winter, as was
correctly pointed out to you by SRH. That's why I said 2/3 correct..
The contiguous USA was 0.3C above average and the NE was, in fact,
the
warmest area in January (scroll down to the dot maps). Thus no-one
will believe you when you trot out things like "his forecast was spot
on". That's just silly. It wasn't.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/index.php
If you don't see what Joe (or Accuweather) can gain financially or
personally by doing this you must really live in an alternate
universe
Lawrence. He works for a commercial organisation, for goodness sake
and his forecast accuracy, over 5 USA winters is *less than 20%*;
fact.
If you feel he's such a good forecaster, you're going to have to do
better than you are in detailig where his forecasts have been
accurate. So far, you have been incorrect on how accurate his USA
winter forecast has been and you've not presented the other forecast
with any analysis of why it is accurate, more than saying "it was
spot
on". Was it? How do we know? You are seeing what you want to see and
not referring to data as usual.
The MetO find seasonal forecasting as difficult as anybody, though
they are at 3/5, I believe over the last 5 years regarding overall
winter temperatures; being wrong on the last 2. Same criteria; 60%
accuracy as regards seasonal temperatures. Their success in
predicting
the winter sign of the NAO lies at about 65%, but that's not the same
as predicting the winter temperatures. Precipitation levels are even
more difficult.
My point is that *no-one* can forecast seasonal weather with
reasonable accuracy ATM. Not the MetO, not NOAA, not the USA weather
service, not the ECM, not private agencies and not individuals; *no-
one*. Thus you can stop trying single out the MetO to try to bolster
your awfully prejudiced views about them and stop lauding one
American
forecaster as some sage who's ahead of the game. He's not.
Seasonal forecasting ATM, is simply not possible with reasonable
accuracy in the UK. Current research, especially using SSTs, may
improve that situation in years to come, but I'm not expecting a
great
deal, which is frustrating and disappointing, but that's the present
state of affairs.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++++++++++
Do you ignore the facts on purpose?
As for what has Joe to gain? Are you really that demented that you
can't
see
the difference between private and public sector forecasting?
Although the GFS is free Accuweather still have to sell their
products
whereas the MetOffice just reap it in from the poor old taxpyer who
fr
their
money get an outrageously bad summer and winter forecast of UKMO in
addition
to the shrill ludicrous drama queen style endless conveyor belt of
weather
warnings. Yet as a tax payer can you opt out and say I don't want to
pay
this year for such a poor service -no of course you bloody can't.
However accuweather if they fgot it as badly wrong as UKMO they would
lose
their customer base. You see any state run oufit like UKMO or local
authorities can get away with absolute murder with the tax and
Council
tax
payers money. However back to the forecast.
Joe October predicted winter forecast for the USA was stunning he
showed
exactly where the snowfall and colder temperaatures would be . At
1.40
he
shows the snowfall and at 2 minutes he shows the temperartures which
by
the
way he has as well above normal for a vast swathe of the NW ; just
below
Vancouver where he also has below normal snowfall. If anyone cannot
see
and concede how accurate that forecast then they are either lying or
stark
raving
looney.http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-...795588001&chan...
Now try doing an analysis on the accuracy of the Mett Office and
their
BBQ
summer and very mild winter with the same criteria you've used for
Joe.
I've analysed the last 5 years MetO winter forecasts in my last post.

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Feb 17, 10:36 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Feb 17, 8:46 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:





Hence his motto "more runs are needed"

"TT" wrote in message

...

lawrence, dont waste your time.

pauls taking crap again.
the crap looks like dawlish gravy. you know, like when you have the
runs.

Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Feb 17, 7:58 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Feb 17, 5:43 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Feb 16, 11:11 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
Let me ask you Paul apply the same criteria of success rate to the
Met
Office and then lets compare.- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
Neither USA forecast was "spot on", especially this winter, as was
correctly pointed out to you by SRH. That's why I said 2/3 correct.
The contiguous USA was 0.3C above average and the NE was, in fact,
the
warmest area in January (scroll down to the dot maps). Thus no-one
will believe you when you trot out things like "his forecast was
spot
on". That's just silly. It wasn't.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/index.php
If you don't see what Joe (or Accuweather) can gain financially or
personally by doing this you must really live in an alternate
universe
Lawrence. He works for a commercial organisation, for goodness sake
and his forecast accuracy, over 5 USA winters is *less than 20%*;
fact.
If you feel he's such a good forecaster, you're going to have to do
better than you are in detailig where his forecasts have been
accurate. So far, you have been incorrect on how accurate his USA
winter forecast has been and you've not presented the other
forecast
with any analysis of why it is accurate, more than saying "it was
spot
on". Was it? How do we know? You are seeing what you want to see
and
not referring to data as usual.
The MetO find seasonal forecasting as difficult as anybody, though
they are at 3/5, I believe over the last 5 years regarding overall
winter temperatures; being wrong on the last 2. Same criteria; 60%
accuracy as regards seasonal temperatures. Their success in
predicting
the winter sign of the NAO lies at about 65%, but that's not the
same
as predicting the winter temperatures. Precipitation levels are
even
more difficult.
My point is that *no-one* can forecast seasonal weather with
reasonable accuracy ATM. Not the MetO, not NOAA, not the USA
weather
service, not the ECM, not private agencies and not individuals;
*no-
one*. Thus you can stop trying single out the MetO to try to
bolster
your awfully prejudiced views about them and stop lauding one
American
forecaster as some sage who's ahead of the game. He's not.
Seasonal forecasting ATM, is simply not possible with reasonable
accuracy in the UK. Current research, especially using SSTs, may
improve that situation in years to come, but I'm not expecting a
great
deal, which is frustrating and disappointing, but that's the
present
state of affairs.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++++++++++
Do you ignore the facts on purpose?
As for what has Joe to gain? Are you really that demented that you
can't
see
the difference between private and public sector forecasting?
Although the GFS is free Accuweather still have to sell their
products
whereas the MetOffice just reap it in from the poor old taxpyer who
fr
their
money get an outrageously bad summer and winter forecast of UKMO in
addition
to the shrill ludicrous drama queen style endless conveyor belt of
weather
warnings. Yet as a tax payer can you opt out and say I don't want
to
pay
this year for such a poor service -no of course you bloody can't.
However accuweather if they fgot it as badly wrong as UKMO they
would
lose
their customer base. You see any state run oufit like UKMO or local
authorities can get away with absolute murder with the tax and
Council
tax
payers money. However back to the forecast.
Joe October predicted winter forecast for the USA was stunning he
showed
exactly where the snowfall and colder temperaatures would be . At
1.40
he
shows the snowfall and at 2 minutes he shows the temperartures
which
by
the
way he has as well above normal for a vast swathe of the NW ; just
below
Vancouver where he also has below normal snowfall. If anyone cannot
see
and concede how accurate that forecast then they are either lying
or
stark
raving
looney.http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-...795588001&chan...
Now try doing an analysis on the accuracy of the Mett Office and
their
BBQ
summer and very mild winter with the same criteria you've used for
Joe.
I've analysed the last 5 years MetO winter forecasts in my last
post.
You've managed to repeat every word of that post twice. Now try
actually reading what you are re-posting and see that com,pared to
Joe, the MetO has a better record. Same criteria for their
respective
home areas: Meto = 60% correct. Joe = 20%. Shame, but you'd know
already if you'd read what I wrote.

January had *above* average temperatures in the USA, not the below
average temperatures that Joe predicted. Again, read what I wrote.

Joe has a 20% accuracy over 5 winters. Do you feel that is good
enough to laud him as a forecaster? Again, read what I wrote and
answer the question asked.

I'll repeat this bit for you as you'll try to squirm out of
answering
that last question; as you almost always do when the question gets
too
hard. I've taken out the smilies this time, as quite frankly, your
determination to not answer awkward questions is legendary and thus
simply doesn't deserve them.

"Please don't try to deflect the question by trying to impune
someone
else, or talking about Joe's views on GW, or ranting about the the
conspiracy that is AGW, or repeating near-libellous untruths about
the
MetO."

You did exactly what I asked you not to do and you've tried to tar
the
MetO, totally unfairly, yet again to avoid commenting on *******i's
laughably poor record in forecasting USA winters.

Paul I don't want to appear rude but some of your language like

"I'll repeat this bit for you as you'll try to squirm out of
answering"
and
!repeating near-libellous untruths about the MetO"

leads me to suspect you have a mental helath problem. As I said in
the
post
I don't belive you are lying , I think you are twisted, no demented,
in
the
fact your lack off objectivity and graciousness to accept that Joe's
LRF
was
**** hot; especially in the light of the MetO's public funded crap.

Consider that the head of UKMO is on higher salary apparently then
that
of
the PM. Now was that libelous or a FACT.

weed it and sweep- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Amazing. You've done it again and not answered the question about
Joe's 20% US winter forecast accuracy over 5 years. does one
forecast
that is no more than 66% accurate (Jan 2010 was well above average in
the NE USA; Joe forecast it would be colder) mean that he's a "****
hot" forecaster? Is that how you judge someone's forecasting
capabilities?

Lawrence; just because you repeat something, with no decent evidence
to back it up, doesn't actually make that thing true. Especially when
the facts point to the exact opposite of what you are saying being
true. Why do you do this?

Don't squirm out of the question this time please, Answer what you've
been asked.

No your doing it Paul. For starters the post was about Joe's video on
the
PDO and NAO. But as you and others seem to hate Joe far beyond reason
I
just pointed out that his summer and winter forecast for the USA was
spot
on. I've never mentioned any of his previous stuff but you do.

--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ----
Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Lawrence; how nany more times do I have to ask the same question??
It's groundhog Day with Antarctic ice and it's relationship with GC.
You couldn't explain that one either, yet you return to that and Joe's
lack of LR skills ad infinitum; still saying that both have a
particular relationship to something, when in reality the pattern
simply does not exist in the way you'd like to think it does.

Again, his winter forecast was not 100% correct (spot on, **** hot, as
you put it....) as January in the NE of the USA was *not* as had
predicted. It was warmer than average. How many times do you have to
read that before you ...

read more »- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Any chance of answering the question Lawrence? Or is it just beyond
your ken to look at facts (20% USA winter forecasting success record
over 5 years) and see what is in front of your eyes? Come on man.
Admit that your idol has a desperately flawed forecasting record and
you are basing your idolatry on one European winter's forecast being
generally correct. Everyone gets forecasts wrong, it's just that Joe's
made rather too much of a habit of it in the past.

60% success record for the MetO over 5 winters - and two poor outcomes
over the last 2 years; no wonder when forecasting even the temperature
sign in winter is so difficult: 20% for Joe. Same criteria, just as
you asked. No comment about that from you, as the answers don't fit
what you want to hear, do they?

Try to keep the insults /insinuations /politicising /far right wing
agenda out of your reply please, if you can

Yes exactly

On Feb 18, 9:31*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Feb 17, 10:36 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message

....
On Feb 17, 8:46 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:

Hence his motto "more runs are needed"

"TT" wrote in message

...

lawrence, dont waste your time.

pauls taking crap again.
the crap looks like dawlish gravy. you know, like when you have the
runs.

Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Feb 17, 7:58 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Feb 17, 5:43 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Feb 16, 11:11 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
Let me ask you Paul apply the same criteria of success rate to the
Met
Office and then lets compare.- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -
Neither USA forecast was "spot on", especially this winter, as was
correctly pointed out to you by SRH. That's why I said 2/3 correct.
The contiguous USA was 0.3C above average and the NE was, in fact,
the
warmest area in January (scroll down to the dot maps). Thus no-one
will believe you when you trot out things like "his forecast was
spot
on". That's just silly. It wasn't.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/index.php
If you don't see what Joe (or Accuweather) can gain financially or
personally by doing this you must really live in an alternate
universe
Lawrence. He works for a commercial organisation, for goodness sake
and his forecast accuracy, over 5 USA winters is *less than 20%*;
fact.
If you feel he's such a good forecaster, you're going to have to do
better than you are in detailig where his forecasts have been
accurate. So far, you have been incorrect on how accurate his USA
winter forecast has been and you've not presented the other
forecast
with any analysis of why it is accurate, more than saying "it was
spot
on". Was it? How do we know? You are seeing what you want to see
and
not referring to data as usual.
The MetO find seasonal forecasting as difficult as anybody, though
they are at 3/5, I believe over the last 5 years regarding overall
winter temperatures; being wrong on the last 2. Same criteria; 60%
accuracy as regards seasonal temperatures. Their success in
predicting
the winter sign of the NAO lies at about 65%, but that's not the
same
as predicting the winter temperatures. Precipitation levels are
even
more difficult.
My point is that *no-one* can forecast seasonal weather with
reasonable accuracy ATM. Not the MetO, not NOAA, not the USA
weather
service, not the ECM, not private agencies and not individuals;
*no-
one*. Thus you can stop trying single out the MetO to try to
bolster
your awfully prejudiced views about them and stop lauding one
American
forecaster as some sage who's ahead of the game. He's not.
Seasonal forecasting ATM, is simply not possible with reasonable
accuracy in the UK. Current research, especially using SSTs, may
improve that situation in years to come, but I'm not expecting a
great
deal, which is frustrating and disappointing, but that's the
present
state of affairs.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++++++++++
Do you ignore the facts on purpose?
As for what has Joe to gain? Are you really that demented that you
can't
see
the difference between private and public sector forecasting?
Although the GFS is free Accuweather still have to sell their
products
whereas the MetOffice just reap it in from the poor old taxpyer who
fr
their
money get an outrageously bad summer and winter forecast of UKMO in
addition
to the shrill ludicrous drama queen style endless conveyor belt of
weather
warnings. Yet as a tax payer can you opt out and say I don't want
to
pay
this year for such a poor service -no of course you bloody can't..
However accuweather if they fgot it as badly wrong as UKMO they
would
lose
their customer base. You see any state run oufit like UKMO or local
authorities can get away with absolute murder with the tax and
Council
tax
payers money. However back to the forecast.
Joe October predicted winter forecast for the USA was stunning he
showed
exactly where the snowfall and colder temperaatures would be . At
1.40
he
shows the snowfall and at 2 minutes he shows the temperartures
which
by
the
way he has as well above normal for a vast swathe of the NW ; just
below
Vancouver where he also has below normal snowfall. If anyone cannot
see
and concede how accurate that forecast then they are either lying
or
stark
raving
looney.http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-...795588001&chan...
Now try doing an analysis on the accuracy of the Mett Office and
their
BBQ
summer and very mild winter with the same criteria you've used for
Joe.
I've analysed the last 5 years MetO winter forecasts in my last
post.
You've managed to repeat every word of that post twice. Now try
actually reading what you are re-posting and see that com,pared to
Joe, the MetO has a better record. Same criteria for their
respective
home areas: Meto = 60% correct. Joe = 20%. Shame, but you'd know
already if you'd read what I wrote.

January had *above* average temperatures in the USA, not the below
average temperatures that Joe predicted. Again, read what I wrote..

Joe has a 20% accuracy over 5 winters. Do you feel that is good
enough to laud him as a forecaster? Again, read what I wrote and
answer the question asked.

I'll repeat this bit for you as you'll try to squirm out of
answering
that last question; as you almost always do when the question gets
too
hard. I've taken out the smilies this time, as quite frankly, your
determination to not answer awkward questions is legendary and thus
simply doesn't deserve them.

"Please don't try to deflect the question by trying to impune
someone
else, or talking about Joe's views on GW, or ranting about the the
conspiracy that is AGW, or repeating near-libellous untruths about
the
MetO."

You did exactly what I asked you not to do and you've tried to tar
the
MetO, totally unfairly, yet again to avoid commenting on *******i's
laughably poor record in forecasting USA winters.

Paul I don't want to appear rude but some of your language like

"I'll repeat this bit for you as you'll try to squirm out of
answering"
and
!repeating near-libellous untruths about the MetO"

leads me to suspect you have a mental helath problem. As I said in
the
post
I don't belive you are lying , I think you are twisted, no demented,
in
the
fact your lack off objectivity and graciousness to accept that Joe's
LRF
was
**** hot; especially in the light of the MetO's public funded crap.

Consider that the head of UKMO is on higher salary apparently then
that
of
the PM. Now was that libelous or a FACT.

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Amazing. You've done it again and not answered the question about
Joe's 20% US winter forecast accuracy over 5 years. does one
forecast
that is no more than 66% accurate (Jan 2010 was well above average in
the NE USA; Joe forecast it would be colder) mean that he's a "****
hot" forecaster? Is that how you judge someone's forecasting
capabilities?

Lawrence; just because you repeat something, with no decent evidence
to back it up, doesn't actually make that thing true. Especially when
the facts point to the exact opposite of what you are saying being
true. Why do you do this?

Don't squirm out of the question this time please, Answer what you've
been asked.

No your doing it Paul. For starters the post was about Joe's video on
the
PDO and NAO. But as you and others seem to hate Joe far beyond reason
I
just pointed out that his summer and winter forecast for the USA was
spot
on. I've never mentioned any of his previous stuff but you do.

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Lawrence; how nany more times do I have to ask the same question??
It's groundhog Day with Antarctic ice and it's relationship with GC.
You couldn't explain that one either, yet you return to that and Joe's
lack of LR skills ad infinitum; still saying that both have a
particular relationship to something, when in reality the pattern
simply does not exist in the way you'd like to think it does.

Again, his winter forecast was not 100% correct (spot on, **** hot, as
you put it....) as January in the NE of the USA was *not* as had
predicted. It was warmer than average. How many times do you have to
read that before you ...

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Any chance of answering the question Lawrence? Or is it just beyond
your ken to look at facts (20% USA winter forecasting success record
over 5 years) and see what is in front of your eyes? Come on man.
Admit that your idol has a desperately flawed forecasting record and
you are basing your idolatry on one European winter's forecast being
generally correct. Everyone gets forecasts wrong, it's just that Joe's
made rather too much of a habit of it in the past.

60% success record for the MetO over 5 winters - and two poor outcomes
over the last 2 years; no wonder when forecasting even the temperature
sign in winter is so difficult: 20% for Joe. Same criteria, just as
you asked. No comment about that from you, as the answers don't fit
what you want to hear, do they?

Try to keep the insults /insinuations /politicising /far right wing
agenda out of your reply please, if you can

Yes exactly

Eh??