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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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Both the gfs and (to a lesser extent) the ECM have pressure building
over the UK from about a week out. Nothing particularly warm on the 850 hpa temps, but as has been pointed out, we're approaching the equinox and the stronger sun might well produce some reasonable afternoon temperatures if skies were clear; light winds could further accentuate the feel of more pleasant conditions. See if that stays on the charts through today and especially if the ECM follows the gfs, which has been keener on this scenario over the last few runs. |
#2
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ahhh, feeling sorry for yourself still.
unable to forecast your default pressure in berne and mild sw'lys all winter so it would make your crappy forecasts look good. poor gravy. poor reality. Dawlish wrote: Both the gfs and (to a lesser extent) the ECM have pressure building over the UK from about a week out. Nothing particularly warm on the 850 hpa temps, but as has been pointed out, we're approaching the equinox and the stronger sun might well produce some reasonable afternoon temperatures if skies were clear; light winds could further accentuate the feel of more pleasant conditions. See if that stays on the charts through today and especially if the ECM follows the gfs, which has been keener on this scenario over the last few runs. --- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: --- |
#3
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On Feb 23, 11:19*am, Dawlish wrote:
Both the gfs and (to a lesser extent) the ECM have pressure building over the UK from about a week out. Nothing particularly warm on the 850 hpa temps, but as has been pointed out, we're approaching the equinox and the stronger sun might well produce some reasonable afternoon temperatures if skies were clear; light winds could further accentuate the feel of more pleasant conditions. See if that stays on the charts through today and especially if the ECM follows the gfs, which has been keener on this scenario over the last few runs. Still signs of the establishment of high pressure over the UK by 10 days - ECM 00z coming around to that at T+240 now. The possible buckling of the jet brings is closer to the UK this weekend and it will probably bring some very wet weather with it for the south, but then the gfs keeps the jet where it has been seeingly forever; well to out south. After the apocalyptic easterlies run yesterday evening from the gfs - and there is still another colder burst shown on the gfs 00z before the high might begin exert its influence - I'd need to see today's runs showing high pressure before I'd be able to forecast its arrival with reasonable confidence and with it a settling down of the weather; not real spring-like a warming up as such, but a settling down. Over the next week, or so, it just looks like more of the same, but wetter! 8( |
#4
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On Feb 24, 7:57*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 23, 11:19*am, Dawlish wrote: Both the gfs and (to a lesser extent) the ECM have pressure building over the UK from about a week out. Nothing particularly warm on the 850 hpa temps, but as has been pointed out, we're approaching the equinox and the stronger sun might well produce some reasonable afternoon temperatures if skies were clear; light winds could further accentuate the feel of more pleasant conditions. See if that stays on the charts through today and especially if the ECM follows the gfs, which has been keener on this scenario over the last few runs. Still signs of the establishment of high pressure over the UK by 10 days - ECM 00z coming around to that at T+240 now. *The possible buckling of the jet brings is closer to the UK this weekend and it will probably bring some very wet weather with it for the south, but then the gfs keeps the jet where it has been seeingly forever; well to out south. After the apocalyptic easterlies run yesterday evening from the gfs - and there is still another colder burst shown on the gfs 00z before the high might begin exert its influence - I'd need to see today's runs showing high pressure before I'd be able to forecast its arrival with reasonable confidence and with it a settling down of the weather; not real spring-like a warming up as such, but a settling down. Over the next week, or so, it just looks like more of the same, but wetter! 8( 12z gfs backs the high pressure at 10 days. Now if the ECM will only agree.......... |
#5
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On Feb 24, 7:57*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 23, 11:19*am, Dawlish wrote: Both the gfs and (to a lesser extent) the ECM have pressure building over the UK from about a week out. Nothing particularly warm on the 850 hpa temps, but as has been pointed out, we're approaching the equinox and the stronger sun might well produce some reasonable afternoon temperatures if skies were clear; light winds could further accentuate the feel of more pleasant conditions. See if that stays on the charts through today and especially if the ECM follows the gfs, which has been keener on this scenario over the last few runs. Still signs of the establishment of high pressure over the UK by 10 days - ECM 00z coming around to that at T+240 now. *The possible buckling of the jet brings is closer to the UK this weekend and it will probably bring some very wet weather with it for the south, but then the gfs keeps the jet where it has been seeingly forever; well to out south. After the apocalyptic easterlies run yesterday evening from the gfs - and there is still another colder burst shown on the gfs 00z before the high might begin exert its influence - I'd need to see today's runs showing high pressure before I'd be able to forecast its arrival with reasonable confidence and with it a settling down of the weather; not real spring-like a warming up as such, but a settling down. Over the next week, or so, it just looks like more of the same, but wetter! 8( Wetter than the last three days??? Get me a one-way ticket to northern Scotland fast.... :-) Nick |
#6
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On Feb 24, 4:53*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Feb 24, 7:57*am, Dawlish wrote: On Feb 23, 11:19*am, Dawlish wrote: Both the gfs and (to a lesser extent) the ECM have pressure building over the UK from about a week out. Nothing particularly warm on the 850 hpa temps, but as has been pointed out, we're approaching the equinox and the stronger sun might well produce some reasonable afternoon temperatures if skies were clear; light winds could further accentuate the feel of more pleasant conditions. See if that stays on the charts through today and especially if the ECM follows the gfs, which has been keener on this scenario over the last few runs. Still signs of the establishment of high pressure over the UK by 10 days - ECM 00z coming around to that at T+240 now. *The possible buckling of the jet brings is closer to the UK this weekend and it will probably bring some very wet weather with it for the south, but then the gfs keeps the jet where it has been seeingly forever; well to out south. After the apocalyptic easterlies run yesterday evening from the gfs - and there is still another colder burst shown on the gfs 00z before the high might begin exert its influence - I'd need to see today's runs showing high pressure before I'd be able to forecast its arrival with reasonable confidence and with it a settling down of the weather; not real spring-like a warming up as such, but a settling down. Over the next week, or so, it just looks like more of the same, but wetter! 8( 12z gfs backs the high pressure at 10 days. Now if the ECM will only agree.......... And seems to suggest the weather will start to settle down as soon as next Monday. Just looked at the 12Z and hopefully the worst of the weekend weather will pass through Saturday night and Sunday morning, with the low already to the east by 12Z Sunday. Nick |
#7
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On Feb 24, 4:59*pm, Nick wrote:
On Feb 24, 7:57*am, Dawlish wrote: On Feb 23, 11:19*am, Dawlish wrote: Both the gfs and (to a lesser extent) the ECM have pressure building over the UK from about a week out. Nothing particularly warm on the 850 hpa temps, but as has been pointed out, we're approaching the equinox and the stronger sun might well produce some reasonable afternoon temperatures if skies were clear; light winds could further accentuate the feel of more pleasant conditions. See if that stays on the charts through today and especially if the ECM follows the gfs, which has been keener on this scenario over the last few runs. Still signs of the establishment of high pressure over the UK by 10 days - ECM 00z coming around to that at T+240 now. *The possible buckling of the jet brings is closer to the UK this weekend and it will probably bring some very wet weather with it for the south, but then the gfs keeps the jet where it has been seeingly forever; well to out south. After the apocalyptic easterlies run yesterday evening from the gfs - and there is still another colder burst shown on the gfs 00z before the high might begin exert its influence - I'd need to see today's runs showing high pressure before I'd be able to forecast its arrival with reasonable confidence and with it a settling down of the weather; not real spring-like a warming up as such, but a settling down. Over the next week, or so, it just looks like more of the same, but wetter! 8( Wetter than the last three days??? Get me a one-way ticket to northern Scotland fast.... :-) Nick- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - In some parts of the south Nick, for sure. As has been pointed out on another thread, Sunday's low could be an interesting beastie! After that, as you say, a settling, perhaps. |
#8
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![]() "Dawlish" wrote in message ... On Feb 24, 4:59 pm, Nick wrote: On Feb 24, 7:57 am, Dawlish wrote: On Feb 23, 11:19 am, Dawlish wrote: Both the gfs and (to a lesser extent) the ECM have pressure building over the UK from about a week out. Nothing particularly warm on the 850 hpa temps, but as has been pointed out, we're approaching the equinox and the stronger sun might well produce some reasonable afternoon temperatures if skies were clear; light winds could further accentuate the feel of more pleasant conditions. See if that stays on the charts through today and especially if the ECM follows the gfs, which has been keener on this scenario over the last few runs. Still signs of the establishment of high pressure over the UK by 10 days - ECM 00z coming around to that at T+240 now. The possible buckling of the jet brings is closer to the UK this weekend and it will probably bring some very wet weather with it for the south, but then the gfs keeps the jet where it has been seeingly forever; well to out south. After the apocalyptic easterlies run yesterday evening from the gfs - and there is still another colder burst shown on the gfs 00z before the high might begin exert its influence - I'd need to see today's runs showing high pressure before I'd be able to forecast its arrival with reasonable confidence and with it a settling down of the weather; not real spring-like a warming up as such, but a settling down. Over the next week, or so, it just looks like more of the same, but wetter! 8( Wetter than the last three days??? Get me a one-way ticket to northern Scotland fast.... :-) Nick- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - In some parts of the south Nick, for sure. As has been pointed out on another thread, Sunday's low could be an interesting beastie! After that, as you say, a settling, perhaps. ============= Paul, the merest hint of a jet shift at T+384 (yes I know!). I have been saying for a while now that this pattern will not be broken without some external forcing which I reckon will come as the sun moves north of the equator adding more heat into the NH system. At tail end of GFS fantasy there was a WSW jet coming out of the States which would begin to break the spell. So I will still go for Spring properly arriving in the last week of March, which is when I will probably get my first 10C this year! What odds will you give me that I will get my *first* 10C of 2010 at Haytor in the last week of March? A chance to redeem your bookie's reputation :-) Will -- |
#9
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On Feb 24, 5:25*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message ... On Feb 24, 4:59 pm, Nick wrote: On Feb 24, 7:57 am, Dawlish wrote: On Feb 23, 11:19 am, Dawlish wrote: Both the gfs and (to a lesser extent) the ECM have pressure building over the UK from about a week out. Nothing particularly warm on the 850 hpa temps, but as has been pointed out, we're approaching the equinox and the stronger sun might well produce some reasonable afternoon temperatures if skies were clear; light winds could further accentuate the feel of more pleasant conditions. See if that stays on the charts through today and especially if the ECM follows the gfs, which has been keener on this scenario over the last few runs. Still signs of the establishment of high pressure over the UK by 10 days - ECM 00z coming around to that at T+240 now. The possible buckling of the jet brings is closer to the UK this weekend and it will probably bring some very wet weather with it for the south, but then the gfs keeps the jet where it has been seeingly forever; well to out south. After the apocalyptic easterlies run yesterday evening from the gfs - and there is still another colder burst shown on the gfs 00z before the high might begin exert its influence - I'd need to see today's runs showing high pressure before I'd be able to forecast its arrival with reasonable confidence and with it a settling down of the weather; not real spring-like a warming up as such, but a settling down. Over the next week, or so, it just looks like more of the same, but wetter! 8( Wetter than the last three days??? Get me a one-way ticket to northern Scotland fast.... :-) Nick- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - In some parts of the south Nick, for sure. As has been pointed out on another thread, Sunday's low could be an interesting beastie! After that, as you say, a settling, perhaps. ============= Paul, the merest hint of a jet shift at T+384 (yes I know!). I have been saying for a while now that this pattern will not be broken without some external forcing which I reckon will come as the sun moves north of the equator adding more heat into the NH system. At tail end of GFS fantasy there was a WSW jet coming out of the States which would begin to break the spell. So I will still go for Spring properly arriving in the last week of March, which is when I will probably get my first 10C this year! What odds will you give me that I will get my *first* 10C of 2010 at Haytor in the last week of March? A chance to redeem your bookie's reputation :-) Will --- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - It may Will, but I think the sun's movement will be coincidental. Last year, the Feb cold was gone quickly and the warm-up didn't wait for the equinox, or later. It's a fact that our climate warms in spring compared to winter, but whether this relative northward movement of the sun will be the cause of this winter finally relaxing its grip and the jet moving northwards is moot. Ask the residents of Vancouver, or Southern Greenland. *)) High pressure over the UK again on the 12z ECM and that's enough to fulfil my criteria for a forecast: **At T+240, on Saturday 6th March the weather in the UK will be influenced by an area of high pressure and many areas will be experiencing a pressure of 1020mb, or above. If skies clear, daytime temperatures will feel very pleasant, in lsunshine and light winds, but nights may well be frosty where skies clear. Any precipitation will be restricted to fronts dying into the high pressure, mainly on coasts with onshore winds. The exact position of the high is always difficult to predict at 10 days, but the anticyclone may well be situated to our west, or NW.** A quietening after the weather of the coming weekend. It will feel springlike in some areas, but we're not looking wide swathes of the UK experiencing 16C yet! |
#10
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yes that bit might come off.
Dawlish wrote: **At T+240, on Saturday 6th March --- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: --- |
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