On Mar 2, 10:22*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
Another day like yesterday in prospect. 8C for Will on the hill
yesterday and quite a surprising 6C for him at 0900 today; 3C warmer
than the coast at Teignmouth - hat's what an inversion does for you.
temperatures here rising quickly and we're much more likely to breach
double figures today than he is.

We'd better make the most of it. Today's 00Z model runs are not at all
encouraging for the next couple of weeks, as you've no doubt seen.
--
John Hall
* * * * * *"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
* * * * * * from coughing."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

It's likely to be generally dry though John, at least over the next
week. And the dryness will probably be accompanied by some sunshine
for many, though it'll be colder in the east. The west will probably
have some nice sunny days and will be pleasant if you can get out of
the wind. The gfs ens for London show the probability of hardly any
rain before next weekend and even less for my neck of the woods,
though temperatures arn't likely to be anything to write home about:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

From a week ago, I'm still happy about my forecast for this Saturday
and this high looks to be rooted for a while. Some hints of pressure
falling towards T+240.

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
On Mar 2, 10:22*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
Another day like yesterday in prospect. 8C for Will on the hill
yesterday and quite a surprising 6C for him at 0900 today; 3C warmer
than the coast at Teignmouth - hat's what an inversion does for you.
temperatures here rising quickly and we're much more likely to breach
double figures today than he is.

We'd better make the most of it. Today's 00Z model runs are not at all
encouraging for the next couple of weeks, as you've no doubt seen.

It's likely to be generally dry though John, at least over the next
week.

I wrote my post yesterday (Tuesday), so it was yesterday's 00Z runs that
I was referring to. Those runs were indicating the likelihood of a
strong E or NE flow across at least the south of the country. Since
then, the models have tended to place the controlling High further
south, so that things now look much more promising. It looks as if by
the weekend and into next week most of the country should have a fair
amount of sunshine by day and light winds, which should make it quite
pleasant, though perhaps still with some frosty nights.

And the dryness will probably be accompanied by some sunshine
for many, though it'll be colder in the east. The west will probably
have some nice sunny days and will be pleasant if you can get out of
the wind. The gfs ens for London show the probability of hardly any
rain before next weekend and even less for my neck of the woods,
though temperatures arn't likely to be anything to write home about:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

Yep.

From a week ago, I'm still happy about my forecast for this Saturday
and this high looks to be rooted for a while. Some hints of pressure
falling towards T+240.



Yep.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

On Mar 3, 10:17*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,





*Dawlish writes:
On Mar 2, 10:22*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
Another day like yesterday in prospect. 8C for Will on the hill
yesterday and quite a surprising 6C for him at 0900 today; 3C warmer
than the coast at Teignmouth - hat's what an inversion does for you.
temperatures here rising quickly and we're much more likely to breach
double figures today than he is.

We'd better make the most of it. Today's 00Z model runs are not at all
encouraging for the next couple of weeks, as you've no doubt seen.

It's likely to be generally dry though John, at least over the next
week.

I wrote my post yesterday (Tuesday), so it was yesterday's 00Z runs that
I was referring to. Those runs were indicating the likelihood of a
strong E or NE flow across at least the south of the country. Since
then, the models have tended to place the controlling High further
south, so that things now look much more promising. It looks as if by
the weekend and into next week most of the country should have a fair
amount of sunshine by day and light winds, which should make it quite
pleasant, though perhaps still with some frosty nights.

And the dryness will probably be accompanied by some sunshine
for many, though it'll be colder in the east. The west will probably
have some nice sunny days and will be pleasant if you can get out of
the wind. The gfs ens for London show the probability of hardly any
rain before next weekend and even less for my neck of the woods,
though temperatures arn't likely to be anything to write home about:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

Yep.

From a week ago, I'm still happy about my forecast for this Saturday
and this high looks to be rooted for a while. Some hints of pressure
falling towards T+240.

Yep.
--
John Hall
* * * * * *"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
* * * * * * from coughing."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

ECM 12z takes away the hints of pressure falling at T240 and the gfs
12z introduces it! No agreement means my confidence about the
anticyclone persisting until next weekend is not high enough to
forecast it. MetO holds a similar view in its 6-15 day precis.

Personally, I find the decision to introduce a 16-30 day forecast
bizzare. Is there an explanation of the reason and the methods they'll
use to make this forecast? Maybe they are on the site and I've missed
them and sorry if I have. Please direct me to it if you've found the
rationale. In addition, is it going to be monitored for any accuracy?
Will anyone actually remember what was forecast, on a daily basis, a
month ago and will anyone care?

and your bull**** t240 crap isnt?


Dawlish wrote:

Personally, I find the decision to introduce a 16-30 day forecast
bizzare.

--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ---

On Mar 2, 10:22*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
Another day like yesterday in prospect. 8C for Will on the hill
yesterday and quite a surprising 6C for him at 0900 today; 3C warmer
than the coast at Teignmouth - hat's what an inversion does for you.
temperatures here rising quickly and we're much more likely to breach
double figures today than he is.

We'd better make the most of it. Today's 00Z model runs are not at all
encouraging for the next couple of weeks, as you've no doubt seen.
--
John Hall
* * * * * *"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
* * * * * * from coughing."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

Back to sparkling weather down here John. It'll be cold in the south-
east, but many UK areas away from there have a potentially gloriously
sunny and dry week in prospect.

However, out at 10 days, the position of the jet is finally forecast
to change. It's only a chart forecast ATM, but the ECM has also
picked up on a potential fall in pressure, on some recent runs, as
Atlantic weather threatens again. the 12z gfs shows the possibility of
the return of that absent beast, the Azores High, to its more usual
position. Now if would just ridge towards us please...........

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
On Mar 2, 10:22*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
Another day like yesterday in prospect. 8C for Will on the hill
yesterday and quite a surprising 6C for him at 0900 today; 3C warmer
than the coast at Teignmouth - hat's what an inversion does for you.
temperatures here rising quickly and we're much more likely to breach
double figures today than he is.

We'd better make the most of it. Today's 00Z model runs are not at all
encouraging for the next couple of weeks, as you've no doubt seen.

Back to sparkling weather down here John. It'll be cold in the south-
east, but many UK areas away from there have a potentially gloriously
sunny and dry week in prospect.

Yep. But my post that you've quoted is now two days old. so it's not
surprising that things have moved on.


However, out at 10 days, the position of the jet is finally forecast
to change. It's only a chart forecast ATM, but the ECM has also
picked up on a potential fall in pressure, on some recent runs, as
Atlantic weather threatens again. the 12z gfs shows the possibility of
the return of that absent beast, the Azores High, to its more usual
position. Now if would just ridge towards us please...........

Fingers crossed.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

On Mar 4, 6:30*pm, John Hall wrote:
In article
,





*Dawlish writes:
On Mar 2, 10:22*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
Another day like yesterday in prospect. 8C for Will on the hill
yesterday and quite a surprising 6C for him at 0900 today; 3C warmer
than the coast at Teignmouth - hat's what an inversion does for you.
temperatures here rising quickly and we're much more likely to breach
double figures today than he is.

We'd better make the most of it. Today's 00Z model runs are not at all
encouraging for the next couple of weeks, as you've no doubt seen.

Back to sparkling weather down here John. It'll be cold in the south-
east, but many UK areas away from there have a potentially gloriously
sunny and dry week in prospect.

Yep. But my post that you've quoted is now two days old. so it's not
surprising that things have moved on.



However, out at 10 days, the position of the jet is finally forecast
to change. It's only a chart forecast *ATM, but the ECM has also
picked up on a potential fall in pressure, on some recent runs, as
Atlantic weather threatens again. the 12z gfs shows the possibility of
the return of that absent beast, the Azores High, to its more usual
position. Now if would just ridge towards us please...........

Fingers crossed.
--
John Hall
* * * * * *"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
* * * * * * from coughing."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

12z ECM begins to go for an Atlantic breakthrough. It'll be
interesting to see the 00z ens on this one. Yesterday's 12z ens were
showing a mean warming trend to 16 days and a change to wetter and
windier weather after about 10 days. If a pattern change is in the
wings, would imagine the 00z ens would reinforce that. 00z gfs ens
show a similar mildening, but the operational, with high pressure in
charge, is very close to the mean at 10 days.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

I suspect a pattern change is coming around, or just after, mid-month,
to much more mobile, Atlantic weather, but the gfs jetstream forecast
doesn't go with the changes it suggested yesterday. See how close this
gfs run is to the ens mean.

On Mar 5, 9:01*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Mar 4, 6:30*pm, John Hall wrote:



In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
On Mar 2, 10:22*am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
Another day like yesterday in prospect. 8C for Will on the hill
yesterday and quite a surprising 6C for him at 0900 today; 3C warmer
than the coast at Teignmouth - hat's what an inversion does for you..
temperatures here rising quickly and we're much more likely to breach
double figures today than he is.

We'd better make the most of it. Today's 00Z model runs are not at all
encouraging for the next couple of weeks, as you've no doubt seen.

Back to sparkling weather down here John. It'll be cold in the south-
east, but many UK areas away from there have a potentially gloriously
sunny and dry week in prospect.

Yep. But my post that you've quoted is now two days old. so it's not
surprising that things have moved on.

However, out at 10 days, the position of the jet is finally forecast
to change. It's only a chart forecast *ATM, but the ECM has also
picked up on a potential fall in pressure, on some recent runs, as
Atlantic weather threatens again. the 12z gfs shows the possibility of
the return of that absent beast, the Azores High, to its more usual
position. Now if would just ridge towards us please...........

Fingers crossed.
--
John Hall
* * * * * *"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
* * * * * * from coughing."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

12z ECM begins to go for an Atlantic breakthrough. It'll be
interesting to see the 00z ens on this one. Yesterday's 12z ens were
showing a mean warming trend to 16 days and a change to wetter and
windier weather after about 10 days. If a pattern change is in the
wings, would imagine the 00z ens would reinforce that. 00z gfs ens
show a similar mildening, but the operational, with high pressure in
charge, is very close to the mean at 10 days.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

I suspect a pattern change is coming around, or just after, mid-month,
to much more mobile, Atlantic weather, but the gfs jetstream forecast
doesn't go with the changes it suggested yesterday. See how close this
gfs run is to the ens mean.

Didn't Will say that it would change as we approach the Spring
Equinox, with the Sun moving North of the Equator it would start to
drag the Jet Stream away from its Winter holiday in Morocco?

Today
200hPA http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn0614.png
300hPA http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn0615.png

21st March
200 hPa http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn38414.png
300 hPa http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn38415.png

"Bonos Ego" wrote in message
...
On Mar 5, 9:01 am, Dawlish wrote:
On Mar 4, 6:30 pm, John Hall wrote:



In article
,

Dawlish writes:
On Mar 2, 10:22 am, John Hall wrote:
In article
,

Dawlish writes:
Another day like yesterday in prospect. 8C for Will on the hill
yesterday and quite a surprising 6C for him at 0900 today; 3C warmer
than the coast at Teignmouth - hat's what an inversion does for you.
temperatures here rising quickly and we're much more likely to
breach
double figures today than he is.

We'd better make the most of it. Today's 00Z model runs are not at
all
encouraging for the next couple of weeks, as you've no doubt seen.

Back to sparkling weather down here John. It'll be cold in the south-
east, but many UK areas away from there have a potentially gloriously
sunny and dry week in prospect.

Yep. But my post that you've quoted is now two days old. so it's not
surprising that things have moved on.

However, out at 10 days, the position of the jet is finally forecast
to change. It's only a chart forecast ATM, but the ECM has also
picked up on a potential fall in pressure, on some recent runs, as
Atlantic weather threatens again. the 12z gfs shows the possibility of
the return of that absent beast, the Azores High, to its more usual
position. Now if would just ridge towards us please...........

Fingers crossed.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

12z ECM begins to go for an Atlantic breakthrough. It'll be
interesting to see the 00z ens on this one. Yesterday's 12z ens were
showing a mean warming trend to 16 days and a change to wetter and
windier weather after about 10 days. If a pattern change is in the
wings, would imagine the 00z ens would reinforce that. 00z gfs ens
show a similar mildening, but the operational, with high pressure in
charge, is very close to the mean at 10 days.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=

I suspect a pattern change is coming around, or just after, mid-month,
to much more mobile, Atlantic weather, but the gfs jetstream forecast
doesn't go with the changes it suggested yesterday. See how close this
gfs run is to the ens mean.

Didn't Will say that it would change as we approach the Spring
Equinox, with the Sun moving North of the Equator it would start to
drag the Jet Stream away from its Winter holiday in Morocco?

=========

I did Bonos, a long time ago now as well!
I stand by it still.

Will
--

On 05/03/10 12:48, Will Hand wrote:
Didn't Will say that it would change as we approach the Spring
Equinox, with the Sun moving North of the Equator it would start to
drag the Jet Stream away from its Winter holiday in Morocco?

=========

I did Bonos, a long time ago now as well!
I stand by it still.

And I'll stick to the SST anomalies keeping it down south for the most
part. Mind you, the anomalies are said to have less effect during the
summer so that may be some small crumb of comfort.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."