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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Wednesday.
Issued 0517, 6th March 2010 High pressure will dominate the UK for the latter half of the week, bringing settled conditions for most and a risk of night frosts for many. Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS NW'lies cover the UK, with a high to the west. Tomorrow the high builds to the east, with SE'lies and easterlies for the UK. On Monday and Tuesday high pressure is centred over the UK, with light winds for all. T+120 synopsis http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn12015.png / http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jetstream chart shows a split jet, with the bulk of the energy going into the southern branch. The 500hPa chart has a ridge over Scotland and Northern Ireland, with upper NE'lies elsewhere. ECM has an upper high over the UK, while MetO brings a ridge to the west and northerlies or NE'lies aloft. GEM has an upper high over the UK and JMA shows upper NE'lies with a high to the north. At the surface, GFS brings a high over Scotland and Northern Ireland with NE'lies elsewhere. ECM has a high over the UK and MetO shows a high to the west with northerlies and NW'lies for the UK. GEM brings light winds and a high for the UK, while JMA shows a high to the north and NE'lies for the UK. Evolution to T+168 ECM shows high pressure declining over the UK on days 6 and 7, with light winds. GFS brings light northerlies on days 6 and 7 as pressure builds to the west. Looking further afield ECM shows high pressure drifting slowly eastwards on days 8 to 10, with light northerlies slowly dying away. GFS has high pressure over the UK on day 8, followed by SE'lies on day 9 ahead of a low to the SW, followed by SE'lies and easterlies as the low moves eastwards on day 10. Ensemble analysis (http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res) The GEFS shows a cold few days followed by a return to near-normal conditions. ECM ensembles http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ep...tt6-london.gif The ECM ensembles show a warming trend next week. |
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