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Old March 6th 10, 05:22 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Today's model interpretation (6/03/10)

Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Wednesday.
Issued 0517, 6th March 2010

High pressure will dominate the UK for the latter half of the week, bringing
settled conditions for most and a risk of night frosts for many.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
NW'lies cover the UK, with a high to the west. Tomorrow the high builds to
the east, with SE'lies and easterlies for the UK. On Monday and Tuesday high
pressure is centred over the UK, with light winds for all.

T+120 synopsis
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn12015.png /
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a split jet, with the bulk of the energy going
into the southern branch. The 500hPa chart has a ridge over Scotland and
Northern Ireland, with upper NE'lies elsewhere. ECM has an upper high over
the UK, while MetO brings a ridge to the west and northerlies or NE'lies
aloft. GEM has an upper high over the UK and JMA shows upper NE'lies with a
high to the north.
At the surface, GFS brings a high over Scotland and Northern Ireland with
NE'lies elsewhere. ECM has a high over the UK and MetO shows a high to the
west with northerlies and NW'lies for the UK. GEM brings light winds and a
high for the UK, while JMA shows a high to the north and NE'lies for the UK.

Evolution to T+168
ECM shows high pressure declining over the UK on days 6 and 7, with light
winds.
GFS brings light northerlies on days 6 and 7 as pressure builds to the west.

Looking further afield
ECM shows high pressure drifting slowly eastwards on days 8 to 10, with
light northerlies slowly dying away.
GFS has high pressure over the UK on day 8, followed by SE'lies on day 9
ahead of a low to the SW, followed by SE'lies and easterlies as the low
moves eastwards on day 10.

Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res)
The GEFS shows a cold few days followed by a return to near-normal
conditions.

ECM ensembles
http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ep...tt6-london.gif
The ECM ensembles show a warming trend next week.




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