Despite yesterday looking like there was a trend being established,
changes in the ECM 12z stopped the possible agreement and consistency
that appeared to be emerging yesterday and we are back with model
difference this morning. The gfs shows a northerly, then an Atlantic
breakthrough, but it is short-lived and there are hints of high
pressure building at 10 days (and after). The ECM shows something very
similar, but develops the high pressure over the UK by T+240.

Yesterday, it really would have been very easy to have forecast an
Atlantic regime at 10 days, as the high sinks SE (which is likely). It
looked like it might be the case for much of the day. What price an
Atlantic regime at 10 days this morning?

On Mar 8, 7:56*am, Dawlish wrote:
Despite yesterday looking like there was a trend being established,
changes in the ECM 12z stopped the possible agreement and consistency
that appeared to be emerging yesterday and we are back with model
difference this morning. The gfs shows a northerly, then an Atlantic
breakthrough, but it is short-lived and there are hints of high
pressure building at 10 days (and after). The ECM shows something very
similar, but develops the high pressure over the UK by T+240.

Yesterday, it really would have been very easy to have forecast an
Atlantic regime at 10 days, as the high sinks SE (which is likely). It
looked like it might be the case for much of the day. What price an
Atlantic regime at 10 days this morning?

gfs 12z promises 15C in the south as early as next week, but it's an
outlier. Not outrageously so, but enough not to be believed. There's
no agreement with other models for those temperatures and the gfs
itself has produced some markedly different operational runs over this
last 48 hours.

On Mar 8, 6:02*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Mar 8, 7:56*am, Dawlish wrote:

Despite yesterday looking like there was a trend being established,
changes in the ECM 12z stopped the possible agreement and consistency
that appeared to be emerging yesterday and we are back with model
difference this morning. The gfs shows a northerly, then an Atlantic
breakthrough, but it is short-lived and there are hints of high
pressure building at 10 days (and after). The ECM shows something very
similar, but develops the high pressure over the UK by T+240.

Yesterday, it really would have been very easy to have forecast an
Atlantic regime at 10 days, as the high sinks SE (which is likely). It
looked like it might be the case for much of the day. What price an
Atlantic regime at 10 days this morning?

gfs 12z promises 15C in the south as early as next week, but it's an
outlier. Not outrageously so, but enough not to be believed. There's
no agreement with other models for those temperatures and the gfs
itself has produced some markedly different operational runs over this
last 48 hours.

That could be interesting. The 12z ECM shows agreement with the gfs
and both suggest a European high at 10 days. See if it's still on the
charts tomorrow.

On Mar 8, 7:07*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Mar 8, 6:02*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Mar 8, 7:56*am, Dawlish wrote:

Despite yesterday looking like there was a trend being established,
changes in the ECM 12z stopped the possible agreement and consistency
that appeared to be emerging yesterday and we are back with model
difference this morning. The gfs shows a northerly, then an Atlantic
breakthrough, but it is short-lived and there are hints of high
pressure building at 10 days (and after). The ECM shows something very
similar, but develops the high pressure over the UK by T+240.

Yesterday, it really would have been very easy to have forecast an
Atlantic regime at 10 days, as the high sinks SE (which is likely). It
looked like it might be the case for much of the day. What price an
Atlantic regime at 10 days this morning?

gfs 12z promises 15C in the south as early as next week, but it's an
outlier. Not outrageously so, but enough not to be believed. There's
no agreement with other models for those temperatures and the gfs
itself has produced some markedly different operational runs over this
last 48 hours.

That could be interesting. The 12z ECM shows agreement with the gfs
and both suggest a European high at 10 days. See if it's still on the
charts tomorrow.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Well, It's there on the ECM, but the gfs operational has a fat
anticyclone at 10 days, continuing the dry weather, after a very short
flirtation with Atlantic troughs. GEM has something different again,
with a high to the west of us. Not a sight of model agreement this
morning. Some consistency from the ECM, but I don't rate the chances
of outcome of any one of those 3 models' output highly at all.