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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Sunday.
Issued 0508, 10th March 2010 The jetstream will be moving north over the weekend and a more zonal spell of weather is likely for parts of the UK. Early next week will see high pressure to the south and a risk of rain in the north and northwest, with temperatures close to or possibly slightly above average. Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS High pressure and light winds cover the UK. Tomorrow there's little change, although as the high moves westwards a WSW'ly breeze affects northern Scotland and NE'lies move over SE England. NW'lies cover the UK on Friday as the high drifts further westwards, followed by further NW'lies on Saturday. T+120 synopsis http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn12015.png / http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1201.png http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1201.gif http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1201.gif / http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php The jetstream chart shows a marked meridional pattern over the Atlantic, with the jet heading SE'wards over the UK. At the 500hPa level there's a NW'ly flow, with a ridge to the SW. An upper NW'ly flow covers the UK with ECM too, as is the case with MetO. GEM shows upper NW'lies as well, as does JMA. At the surface, GFS brings westerlies with a ridge to the west. ECM has WNW'lies and westerlies due to a high to the SW, as is the case with MetO. GEM brings WNW'lies and a high to the SW and JMA is very similar. Evolution to T+168 ECM shows WSW'lies on day 6 with a high to the south. On day 7 a ridge covers England and Wales, with WSW'lies for most. GFS brings more zonal WSW'lies and SW'lies on days 6 and 7 as the jet moves northwards. Looking further afield ECM shows a mixture of SW'lies and SSW'lies on days 8 to 10, as a weak ridge moves eastwards. GFS has SW'lies backing southerly on days 8 to 10 as low pressure approaches from the SW. Ensemble analysis (http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/gra...ille=Lond res) The GEFS has changed to show temperatures below average for the next 5 or 6 days, followed by a rise to above-average values. ECM ensembles http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/meteo/ep...tt6-london.gif The ECM ensembles show a gradual warming trend for the weekend and beyond. |
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