Little change on the face of it, but actually as NOAA say: "Since
early February 2009, the heat content has increased across the east-
central Pacific in association with the downwellingphase of another
Kelvin wave." Anyone following the Monday updates, will see that
wasn't expected at that time. The current El Nino is hanging on with a
little more strength than was expected. That may not change the
eventual speed of its decline, however. NOAA's summary:

"•El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average
across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
•Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere
spring 2010."

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

About 50% of models are going for a decline to a colder than average
equatorial pacific by the autumn and 3 go for a La Nina by then. 2
keep the El Nino throughout this year and a number go for a re-warming
after a cooling through the summer, from present values. It would be
very difficult to justify any predictions of what will actually happen
to ENSO during the summer, on the output from these models, as a
result. As the Australian BOM says, ENSO becomes notoriously difficult
to predict in the Austral autumn and the model output reflects that.

The moderate El Nino is presently playing a part in the current very
warm march global temperatures:

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutem...?amsutemps+001

Current Hadley Centre research (Scaife et al.) shows that El Nino
conditions can produce colder conditions in NW Europe in late winter
and early spring. That theory has proven correct for this winter.

keep it up bigot boy

Dawlish wrote:
Little change on the face of it, but actually as NOAA say: "Since
early February 2009, the heat content has increased across the east-
central Pacific in association with the downwellingphase of another
Kelvin wave." Anyone following the Monday updates, will see that
wasn't expected at that time. The current El Nino is hanging on with a
little more strength than was expected. That may not change the
eventual speed of its decline, however. NOAA's summary:

"•El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average
across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
•Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere
spring 2010."

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...-fcsts-web.pdf

About 50% of models are going for a decline to a colder than average
equatorial pacific by the autumn and 3 go for a La Nina by then. 2
keep the El Nino throughout this year and a number go for a re-warming
after a cooling through the summer, from present values. It would be
very difficult to justify any predictions of what will actually happen
to ENSO during the summer, on the output from these models, as a
result. As the Australian BOM says, ENSO becomes notoriously difficult
to predict in the Austral autumn and the model output reflects that.

The moderate El Nino is presently playing a part in the current very
warm march global temperatures:

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutem...?amsutemps+001

Current Hadley Centre research (Scaife et al.) shows that El Nino
conditions can produce colder conditions in NW Europe in late winter
and early spring. That theory has proven correct for this winter.


--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ---

On Mar 12, 11:34*am, T T wrote:
keep it up bigot boy





Dawlish wrote:
Little change on the face of it, but actually as NOAA say: "Since
early February 2009, the heat content has increased across the east-
central Pacific in association with the downwellingphase of another
Kelvin wave." Anyone following the Monday updates, will see that
wasn't expected at that time. The current El Nino is hanging on with a
little more strength than was expected. That may not change the
eventual speed of its decline, however. NOAA's summary:

"•El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average
across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
•Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere
spring 2010."

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...ng/lanina/enso...

About 50% of models are going for a decline to a colder than average
equatorial pacific by the autumn and 3 go for a La Nina by then. 2
keep the El Nino throughout this year and a number go for a re-warming
after a cooling through the summer, from present values. It would be
very difficult to justify any predictions of what will actually happen
to ENSO during the summer, on the output from these models, as a
result. As the Australian BOM says, ENSO becomes notoriously difficult
to predict in the Austral autumn and the model output reflects that.

The moderate El Nino is presently playing a part in the current very
warm march global temperatures:

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutem...?amsutemps+001

Current Hadley Centre research (Scaife et al.) shows that El Nino
conditions can produce colder conditions in NW Europe in late winter
and early spring. That theory has proven correct for this winter.

--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ---- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Your absence would improve the tone of this forum - here's hoping.

On Mar 12, 2:05*am, RWood wrote:
On Mar 12, 11:34*am, T T wrote:





keep it up bigot boy

Dawlish wrote:
Little change on the face of it, but actually as NOAA say: "Since
early February 2009, the heat content has increased across the east-
central Pacific in association with the downwellingphase of another
Kelvin wave." Anyone following the Monday updates, will see that
wasn't expected at that time. The current El Nino is hanging on with a
little more strength than was expected. That may not change the
eventual speed of its decline, however. NOAA's summary:

"•El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average
across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
•Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere
spring 2010."

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...ng/lanina/enso....

About 50% of models are going for a decline to a colder than average
equatorial pacific by the autumn and 3 go for a La Nina by then. 2
keep the El Nino throughout this year and a number go for a re-warming
after a cooling through the summer, from present values. It would be
very difficult to justify any predictions of what will actually happen
to ENSO during the summer, on the output from these models, as a
result. As the Australian BOM says, ENSO becomes notoriously difficult
to predict in the Austral autumn and the model output reflects that.

The moderate El Nino is presently playing a part in the current very
warm march global temperatures:

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutem...?amsutemps+001

Current Hadley Centre research (Scaife et al.) shows that El Nino
conditions can produce colder conditions in NW Europe in late winter
and early spring. That theory has proven correct for this winter.

--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ---- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Your absence would improve the tone of this forum - here's hoping.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

It's a cross I have to bear. Welcome back Mr.Wood; I hope the NZ
summer has treated you well! Watch those icebergs though.... *))

What are the typical El Nino effects in long white cloud land and have
they been present during this one?

On Mar 12, 9:47*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Mar 12, 2:05*am, RWood wrote:





On Mar 12, 11:34*am, T T wrote:

keep it up bigot boy

Dawlish wrote:
Little change on the face of it, but actually as NOAA say: "Since
early February 2009, the heat content has increased across the east-
central Pacific in association with the downwellingphase of another
Kelvin wave." Anyone following the Monday updates, will see that
wasn't expected at that time. The current El Nino is hanging on with a
little more strength than was expected. That may not change the
eventual speed of its decline, however. NOAA's summary:

"•El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average
across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
•Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere
spring 2010."

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...ng/lanina/enso...

About 50% of models are going for a decline to a colder than average
equatorial pacific by the autumn and 3 go for a La Nina by then. 2
keep the El Nino throughout this year and a number go for a re-warming
after a cooling through the summer, from present values. It would be
very difficult to justify any predictions of what will actually happen
to ENSO during the summer, on the output from these models, as a
result. As the Australian BOM says, ENSO becomes notoriously difficult
to predict in the Austral autumn and the model output reflects that..

The moderate El Nino is presently playing a part in the current very
warm march global temperatures:

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutem...?amsutemps+001

Current Hadley Centre research (Scaife et al.) shows that El Nino
conditions can produce colder conditions in NW Europe in late winter
and early spring. That theory has proven correct for this winter.

--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ---- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Your absence would improve the tone of this forum - here's hoping.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

It's a cross I have to bear. Welcome back Mr.Wood; I hope the NZ
summer has treated you well! Watch those icebergs though.... *))

What are the typical El Nino effects in long white cloud land and have
they been present during this one?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

The effects of El Nino are more equivocal than in Australia, but
broadly speaking the southward migration of summer anticyclones is
retarded for a while, and there are more southwesterly flows over the
country, with variable but often wetter and cooler conditions in the
more southern and southwestern parts of the country, and often drier
conditions in the north and east of the country. There is usually a
substantial area of colder than average SSTs just out to the east,
which sometimes also envelops most of the coastline as well in the
early part of the season. Later in the summer a more normal
anticyclonic pattern usually returns.

In this case temperatures in November and December more or less
followed the above, but dryness was much more widespread than in many
earlier El Ninos. After a couple of a typical SE events which brought
(more or less) unexpected rainfall to some eastern areas, there was a
sudden switch to settled anticyclonic weather in late January, and
this has held sway until just a few days ago. Most dry areas have had
some relief, but in the far north of the country the dry spell has
been one of its most prolonged ever. From a holidaymaker viewpoint
most areas have had a more enjoyable summer than "expected".

The strong 1997-8 EN had some other kind of forcing circulation factor
present it seems, as halfway through the season very warm N/NW
airflows produced heatwaves and the hottest Februiary on record for
the entire country. On the other hand, the 1982-3 event was cool and
dry for most of the country, but cold and very wet in the south and
southwest.

On Mar 12, 9:19*am, RWood wrote:
On Mar 12, 9:47*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Mar 12, 2:05*am, RWood wrote:

On Mar 12, 11:34*am, T T wrote:

keep it up bigot boy

Dawlish wrote:
Little change on the face of it, but actually as NOAA say: "Since
early February 2009, the heat content has increased across the east-
central Pacific in association with the downwellingphase of another
Kelvin wave." Anyone following the Monday updates, will see that
wasn't expected at that time. The current El Nino is hanging on with a
little more strength than was expected. That may not change the
eventual speed of its decline, however. NOAA's summary:

"•El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average
across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
•Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere
spring 2010."

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...ng/lanina/enso...

About 50% of models are going for a decline to a colder than average
equatorial pacific by the autumn and 3 go for a La Nina by then. 2
keep the El Nino throughout this year and a number go for a re-warming
after a cooling through the summer, from present values. It would be
very difficult to justify any predictions of what will actually happen
to ENSO during the summer, on the output from these models, as a
result. As the Australian BOM says, ENSO becomes notoriously difficult
to predict in the Austral autumn and the model output reflects that.

The moderate El Nino is presently playing a part in the current very
warm march global temperatures:

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutem...?amsutemps+001

Current Hadley Centre research (Scaife et al.) shows that El Nino
conditions can produce colder conditions in NW Europe in late winter
and early spring. That theory has proven correct for this winter.

--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ---- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Your absence would improve the tone of this forum - here's hoping.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

It's a cross I have to bear. Welcome back Mr.Wood; I hope the NZ
summer has treated you well! Watch those icebergs though.... *))

What are the typical El Nino effects in long white cloud land and have
they been present during this one?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

The effects of El Nino are more equivocal than in Australia, but
broadly speaking the southward migration of summer anticyclones is
retarded for a while, and there are more southwesterly flows over the
country, with variable but often wetter and cooler conditions in the
more southern and southwestern parts of the country, and often drier
conditions in the north and east of the country. There is usually a
substantial area of colder than average SSTs just out to the east,
which sometimes also envelops most of the coastline as well in the
early part of the season. Later in the summer a more normal
anticyclonic pattern usually returns.

In this case temperatures in November and December more or less
followed the above, but dryness was much more widespread than in many
earlier El Ninos. After a couple of a typical SE events which brought
(more or less) unexpected rainfall to some eastern areas, there was a
sudden switch to settled anticyclonic weather in late January, and
this has held sway until just a few days ago. Most dry areas have had
some relief, but in the far north of the country the dry spell has
been one of its most prolonged ever. From a holidaymaker viewpoint
most areas have had a more enjoyable summer than "expected".

The strong 1997-8 EN had some other kind of forcing circulation factor
present it seems, as halfway through the season very warm N/NW
airflows produced heatwaves and the hottest Februiary on record for
the entire country. On the other hand, the 1982-3 event was cool and
dry for most of the country, but cold and very wet in the south and
southwest.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Interesting, Thanks. I hope our coming summer follows something along
the same lines as yours did.

im trying to do this group a favour and get rid of that ****


RWood wrote:
On Mar 12, 11:34 am, T T wrote:
keep it up bigot boy





Dawlish wrote:
Little change on the face of it, but actually as NOAA say: "Since
early February 2009, the heat content has increased across the east-
central Pacific in association with the downwellingphase of another
Kelvin wave." Anyone following the Monday updates, will see that
wasn't expected at that time. The current El Nino is hanging on with a
little more strength than was expected. That may not change the
eventual speed of its decline, however. NOAA's summary:
"•El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average
across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
•Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño
is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere
spring 2010."
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...ng/lanina/enso...
About 50% of models are going for a decline to a colder than average
equatorial pacific by the autumn and 3 go for a La Nina by then. 2
keep the El Nino throughout this year and a number go for a re-warming
after a cooling through the summer, from present values. It would be
very difficult to justify any predictions of what will actually happen
to ENSO during the summer, on the output from these models, as a
result. As the Australian BOM says, ENSO becomes notoriously difficult
to predict in the Austral autumn and the model output reflects that.
The moderate El Nino is presently playing a part in the current very
warm march global temperatures:
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutem...?amsutemps+001
Current Hadley Centre research (Scaife et al.) shows that El Nino
conditions can produce colder conditions in NW Europe in late winter
and early spring. That theory has proven correct for this winter.
--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ---- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Your absence would improve the tone of this forum - here's hoping.

--- news://freenews.netfront.net/ - complaints: ---

In article ,
says...
im trying to do this group a favour and get rid of that ****


Oh, the irony!

--
Alan LeHun