Rain for sunday nope , rain for sunday evening nope, how about rain for
sunday night
nope clear skies, lets make a forecast for rain on monday. What do i wake up
to
patchy high cloud and blue sky.

wow its a record!

se england

On Mon, 8 Sep 2003 08:53:43 +0000 (UTC), "nguk.."
wrote:

Rain for sunday nope , rain for sunday evening nope, how about rain for
sunday night
nope clear skies, lets make a forecast for rain on monday. What do i wake up
to
patchy high cloud and blue sky.

wow its a record!

Sometimes, they are their own worst enemies. I watched last night's
News 24 forecast for today carefully, sometime around midnight.

Initially, the presenter mentioned briefly that there was uncertainty
about the forecast for rain in the South. So far so good. He then went
on to talk about and show charts of rain covering Southern England and
ended up, several minutes later, by mentioning the miserable rainy day
we could all expect. If he'd again qualified this with a reminder
about the uncertainty, all would have been well. But he didn't.

The layman would have been left with an image of a miserable rainy
day... but *I* remembered what he said briefly at the start and
guessed it was a 50/50 situation. I guessed it may well stay dry until
well into the afternoon (at least) and so it has proved to be, so far.

This isn't a forecasting problem, it's one of presentation. Clearly,
THE PRESENTER should have given the confidence level at the start AND
at the end, stating the alternative scenario (e.g. the one I deduced).
Presentation presentation presentation. Will they ever get THE
PRESENTATION right should be the question. Grrrr.....

--
Dave
Fareham

Presentation presentation presentation. Will they ever get THE
PRESENTATION right should be the question. Grrrr.....

I agree, Dave. It's something I tend to go banging on about rather a
lot, but as the actual science slowly improves all the time the presentation is
slapdash. Part of the problem is the "dumbed down" assumption whereby the
audience is not thought able to take in such sophisticated concepts as
probability. But it would be honest, and in the long run beneficial, if people
were reminded that forecasting is not an exact science.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

nguk.. wrote:
Rain for sunday nope , rain for sunday evening nope, how about rain for
sunday night
nope clear skies, lets make a forecast for rain on monday. What do i wake up
to
patchy high cloud and blue sky.

wow its a record!

se england



How about we fire the lot of them, close the met office, and from now on
use a tape loop of the following:-

"Sunny spells and scattered showers, some of which may be heavy, but
other areas staying dry. It may be breezy at times. It will be cool/warm
(delete as appropriate - use "cool" in winter, "warm" in summer)."

It will be right for about 75% of the population, probably better than
75% of the time - at least as good as we currently get.

Gazillions of ££'s saved - some of which they can give to me

--
Chris
Swaffham, Norfolk

"Succorso" wrote in message
...

How about we fire the lot of them, close the met
office, and from now on
use a tape loop of the following:-

"Sunny spells and scattered showers, some of
which may be heavy, but
other areas staying dry. It may be breezy at
times. It will be cool/warm
(delete as appropriate - use "cool" in winter,
"warm" in summer)."

It will be right for about 75% of the
population, probably better than
75% of the time - at least as good as we
currently get.

Gazillions of ££'s saved - some of which they
can give to me

--
Chris
Swaffham, Norfolk

Make that "some of which may be heavy and
prolonged" and you've got it covered.

AliCat wrote:

"AliCat" wrote in message
...

"Succorso" wrote in

message

...


How about we fire the lot of them, close the

met

office, and from now on

use a tape loop of the following:-

"Sunny spells and scattered showers, some of

which may be heavy, but

other areas staying dry. It may be breezy at

times. It will be cool/warm

(delete as appropriate - use "cool" in winter,

"warm" in summer)."

It will be right for about 75% of the

population, probably better than

75% of the time - at least as good as we

currently get.

Gazillions of ££'s saved - some of which they

can give to me

--
Chris
Swaffham, Norfolk

Make that "some of which may be heavy and
prolonged" and you've got it covered.



Or even "perrlonged" as your from Swaffham.


thas royt boy...

Not to mention last weekends Rain that never was.


"nguk.." wrote in message
...
Rain for sunday nope , rain for sunday evening nope, how about rain for
sunday night
nope clear skies, lets make a forecast for rain on monday. What do i wake
up
to
patchy high cloud and blue sky.

wow its a record!

se england

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

You know one reason why probability forecasts have not been as high profile here
on the TV as they are in the States ?

Bill Giles.

For years he argued against them being included regularly. He also had the ear
of the BBC and sadly it has put this country back 20 years in accepting
probability forecasts. Of course the public understand them, half the nation
bets don't they ? And if they didn't properly understand them they can be
taught, isn't the BBC meant to be part educational ? Also if they devoted more
time to the weather than those stupid promos (sometimes for programs starting in
a few minutes for goodness sake) and dancing people, then they could educate
folk more.

Stop press - heaving down again outside !

Will.
--
" Love begins when judgement ceases "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TudorHgh wrote in message ...
Presentation presentation presentation. Will they ever get THE
PRESENTATION right should be the question. Grrrr.....

I agree, Dave. It's something I tend to go banging on about rather a
lot, but as the actual science slowly improves all the time the presentation is
slapdash. Part of the problem is the "dumbed down" assumption whereby the
audience is not thought able to take in such sophisticated concepts as
probability. But it would be honest, and in the long run beneficial, if people
were reminded that forecasting is not an exact science.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

A quick reply to Dave and Will.

Dave, yes, how right you are to cite presentation (a bit more emphasis on the
social science of perception to optimise the advances in the hard science of
numerical weather prediction) - I hope those who make generalised rants about
'poor forecasts' ponder this.

Will- your comment about Bill Giles intrigued me...

You know one reason why probability forecasts have not been as high profile
here on the TV as they are in the States ?
Bill Giles. For years he argued against them being included regularly.

why the surprise? Well, he chaired the Media session of the RMS conference last
week and said how important it was that a future meeting focus on probability
forecasting. Has he been converted?

That reminds me, I must go downstairs now and put BBC2 on for University
Challenge - the Final, featuring the RMS team. .

Julian Mayes
West Molesey - still dry!

"Will" wrote in message
...

You know one reason why probability forecasts have not been as high
profile here
on the TV as they are in the States ?

Another I feel, is simply the style of presentation, from that Chrissy girl
on ITV who looks like she's on E to the relaxed style of Rob M, the delivery
has always followed the same structure and few are willing to break the
mould. Same cliches, same presentation format, same linkage between screens.
One did, he then got snapped up in the States!

I'd love to see jet stream forecasts, looped satellite images and some
twangy probability-ometer (actually, leave that one to Metcheck ;-))

Saying this..... I mentioned it to friends the other day, their response?
Err no Andrew.... just tell us if it will rain or not! Can't please everyone
I guess ;-)

A